Forging the Future: How Everyday Iron Replaced Exotic Cobalt

The Iron Revolution: Why the Budget Battery is the New King

The year 2010 feels like a lifetime ago in the world of automotive technology. When the world was busy trying the first Instagram filters and wondering if tablet computers would actually catch on, a small group of engineers was figuring out how to keep electric cars from turning into very expensive paperweights. In those early days, the electric vehicle landscape was divided into two distinct camps. You had the high-performance pioneers who prioritized range at the expense of cost. You also had the cautious traditionalists who prioritized safety and cost above all else. Today, those two worlds have collided in a way that would have shocked the researchers of 2010. The modern Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) battery has become the standard for affordable electric cars. It was once considered the bulky, low-energy cousin of the lithium family. However, this humble chemistry has quietly reached a level of performance that matches or exceeds the high-end batteries that started this entire modern EV revolution.

The High Voltage Heroes of Yesteryear

In 2010, the gold standard for energy density was the first-generation Tesla Roadster. It did not use a specialized automotive battery. Instead, it used thousands of tiny 18650 cylindrical cells. These were essentially the same batteries found in high-end laptops of the era. The chemistry was Lithium Nickel Cobalt Aluminum Oxide, or NCA. At the cell level, this was a masterpiece of engineering. These cells boasted a specific energy of roughly 240 Wh/kg. They were the absolute peak of what money could buy. They were also temperamental. To keep these dense, volatile cells from overheating, Tesla had to build a complex liquid cooling system. This added significant weight to the car. When you looked at the final battery pack, the density dropped to about 120 Wh/kg. It was a brilliant, heavy, and incredibly expensive solution.

On the other side of the aisle, companies like Nissan and GM were playing it safe. The 2010 Nissan LEAF used Lithium Manganese Oxide, or LMO. This was a much more stable chemistry. It did not have the same fire risk as the laptop cells. Unfortunately, it also lacked the punch. The LEAF cells only offered about 155 Wh/kg at the cell level. Because Nissan used a simple air-cooled design, the final pack density was a mere 80 Wh/kg. The Chevy Volt used a similar manganese-rich blend. It prioritized power over pure energy. These cars were reliable and safe, but they could not match the range of the dense NCA chemistry. In 2010, if you wanted density, you had to accept complexity and high costs.

The Rise of the Iron Age (Ferrous Future)

While the industry leaders were fighting over nickel and cobalt, a quieter revolution was brewing with iron. Lithium Iron Phosphate was long considered the "budget" choice. It was the battery you used for a golf cart or a backup power supply for a server room. It was heavy. It was bulky. It was, frankly, boring. But iron has some massive advantages. It is cheap. It is abundant. Most importantly, it is incredibly stable. An LFP battery is much harder to ignite than its nickel-based counterparts. It can handle thousands of charge cycles without losing its capacity. In 2010, however, LFP was too heavy for a serious car. A car with an LFP pack would have been either way too heavy or have far too little range.

The narrative changed as chemical engineering advanced. Modern LFP cells in 2025 have seen their energy density skyrocket. We are no longer looking at bulky bricks. Through better manufacturing and improved electrode designs, modern LFP cells now reach between 160 Wh/kg and 205 Wh/kg. Think about that for a moment. The "budget" battery of today has roughly 30% more energy per kilogram than the safety-first batteries used in the original Nissan LEAF. It is now approaching the density of the legendary 2010 Tesla Roadster cells. We have managed to take a cheap, safe material and make it perform like the exotic technology of the past.

Comparing the Chemical Contenders

To truly understand how far we have come, we need to look at the hard numbers. The table below compares the high-end performance of 2010 against the standard, affordable technology we see in US showrooms today. Semantic headers provide the structure for comparison.

Metric	2010 Tesla Roadster (NCA)	2010 Nissan LEAF (LMO)	2025 Standard EV (LFP)
Cell Energy Density	~240 Wh/kg	~155 Wh/kg	~200 Wh/kg
Pack Energy Density	~120 Wh/kg	~80 Wh/kg	~150 Wh/kg
Typical Cycle Life	500 to 1,000	~1,000	3,000 to 6,000+
Cost per kWh (USD)	~$1,100	~$900	~$130
Cooling Method	Complex Liquid	Passive Air	Simple Liquid

The most shocking number in that table is the cost. In 2010, a single kilowatt-hour of battery capacity cost over $1,100. Today, an LFP pack can be produced for around $130 per kWh. These iron cells use more abundant materials. With this progress, LFP has achieved a nearly 90% price reduction while simultaneously increasing the safety and lifespan of the product. The modern driver can buy a car for $35,000 that has better battery technology than a $100,000 sports car from fifteen years ago. 

Here are the early 2026 prices for comparison: 

Chemistry	Est. Cost per kWh	Total Cost (100kWh)	Key Characteristic
LFP (Iron Phosphate)	$80 – $100	$8,000 – $10,000	Mass-market leader; safest and most durable.
LMFP (Manganese Iron Phosphate)	$90 – $110	$9,000 – $11,000	The emerging 2026 "Goldilocks" chemistry.
NMC (Nickel Manganese Cobalt)	$115 – $140	$11,500 – $14,000	Premium performance; higher energy density.
NCA (Nickel Cobalt Aluminum)	$120 – $145	$12,000 – $14,500	High density; primarily Tesla/Panasonic.

The Cost Leader: LFP is the most affordable option, largely due to its simpler supply chain and absence of expensive metals like Nickel and Cobalt.

Bridge Chemistry: LMFP sits just above standard LFP, offering a significant performance boost for a relatively small price increase.

The Nickel Premium: NMC and NCA sit at the top of the price bracket, reserved for the most demanding applications like performance vehicles, where weight reduction and long-range energy density are worth the extra $4,000+ per vehicle.

The Secret of Structural Strength

One of the reasons modern LFP batteries feel so much "lighter" in practice is not just chemistry. It is the way we build the car. Because LFP is so stable, engineers can use what is called "cell to pack" technology. In 2010, batteries had to be tucked into small modules. These modules were then placed inside a heavy steel box. This was a "Russian nesting doll" of protection. It was necessary to keep the volatile chemicals safe.

Modern LFP cells, like the BYD Blade or the latest CATL designs, are long and structural. They are bolted directly into the frame of the car. We have eliminated the heavy modules and the extra steel. This is why the pack level density of a modern LFP car is actually higher than the 2010 Tesla Roadster. The cells might be slightly less dense, but the final battery pack is much more efficient. We have traded heavy armor for clever architecture. This transition has allowed affordable cars to achieve 250 miles of range with ease.

Maintenance without the Meltdown

There is one quirk to these modern iron batteries that often confuses new owners. If you own a high-end nickel battery, you are told to never charge it to 100%. Doing so creates chemical stress that shortens the life of the battery. LFP is different. Because of its unique voltage curve, the car's computer can sometimes lose track of how much energy is actually left. The voltage stays very flat until the battery is almost empty.

Simplified for illustrative purposes

Pro-tip: To keep your LFP battery's reported charge accurate, you should charge it to 100% about once a week. This allows the battery management system to calibrate. It also helps balance the individual cells. While other battery chemistries would degrade under this treatment, LFP is tough enough to handle it. It is a rare case where the "lazy" way to charge is actually the better way.

2026 Is The Year of LFP

Chemistry	2025 Market Share (Approx.)	Primary Usage & Trends
LFP (Iron Phosphate)	~50% – 55%	Dominant. Used in ~75% of Chinese EVs, entry-level Teslas, and almost all stationary grid storage. Fastest-growing segment.
NMC (Nickel Cobalt)	~35% – 42%	Premium. Leader in North America and Europe for long-range and high-performance EVs due to higher energy density.
NCA (Nickel Aluminum)	~3% – 5%	Niche. Primarily made by Panasonic for Tesla Models S and X; losing ground to high-nickel NMC variants.
Other (LCO, LMO, LTO)	~2% – 5%	Specialized. LCO for consumer electronics; LTO for ultra-fast charging; LMO for power tools and older EVs.

LFP has officially overtaken NMC as the global volume leader in battery production. Driven by its exceptional thermal stability, lower material cost, and an absence of controversial materials like cobalt, LFP has become the go-to choice for mass-market EVs and utility-scale energy storage.

This momentum shows no signs of slowing down. As we look toward 2026, the expansion of LFP production into Western markets and the introduction of manganese-enriched variants (LMFP) promise even greater dominance. LFP isn't just a budget alternative anymore; it is the resilient backbone of the global energy transition.

A Charged Conclusion

The journey from the 2008 Tesla Roadster to the 2025 LFP-powered EV is a testament to human ingenuity. We did not just find better ways to mine cobalt. We found ways to stop needing it as much. We moved from exotic, expensive materials to common iron and phosphate. We moved from temperamental cells to robust, long-lasting units. Today's entry-level electric car is a technological marvel that would have seemed impossible during the early days of the modern EV wave. This is an important step to democratizing high-performance energy storage. As these batteries become even cheaper and denser, the transition to clean transport and renewable energy will only accelerate. We are finally building the iron foundations for a sustainable, resilient, and future that's free from fossil fuels.

If Data Is the New Oil, the Data Refinery Will Be in the Sahara

Data Oasis: Why the Cloud Should Move to the African Sunbelt

Introduction

In my last piece, I argued that Africa is sitting on the biggest energy-generative goldmine in history. Solar superpower, batteries stuffed, electrons zooming north on cables. But there is an even smarter move: instead of just pushing "heavy" electricity across oceans, why not send weightless bits and bytes instead? Data rides fiber at the speed of light for almost nothing, whereas electricity fights losses with every kilometer. So when OpenAI or Google needs another 500 MW for the next frontier model, the rational answer is to park the GPUs where the photons are collected, and the electrons are born: Africa.

AI’s Insatiable Appetite

Datacenter demand is exploding. Global electricity use by datacenters could double by 2030 and reach 8% of world consumption if AI keeps growing (IEA 2024). That is more juice than the entire United Kingdom guzzles today. Meanwhile, hyperscalers are signing deals in Virginia and Ireland at $80-120/MWh. African desert solar plus batteries is already landing below $30/MWh and heading to $15/MWh by 2030 (BloombergNEF 2025).

Location	All-in Cost of 24/7 Power (2030 est.)	Cooling Considerations	Typical Land Cost per Acre
Northern Virginia	$90-110/MWh	Hot, humid summers	$500,000+
Ireland	$70-100/MWh	Cool but expensive	$100,000+
Morocco desert	$20-30/MWh	Night temps drop to 15 °C	<$2,000
Mauritania	$15-25/MWh	Even cooler nights	<$1,000

Sources: BloombergNEF, Lazard, local land registries.
The cost gap is brutal and getting wider.

Bits Beat Bulk Electrons

Laying a transatlantic fiber pair costs about $250 million and moves 400 Tbps. Sending a petabyte of data across it costs literal pennies. Doing the same compute far the energy source and trying to ship the required 2–3 GWh as electricity would waste tens of thousands of dollars in transmission losses and higher generation costs alone. Data has zero mass and zero friction. Electricity fights copper and distance every step of the way. Advantage: internet.

Cooling? No Problem, Just Add More Sun

Yes, datacenters in the desert will need serious cooling. Good news: energy will never be scarce. Mount the same panels as solar canopies over rooftops and parking lots. They cut incoming heat by 50-70% while generating bonus kilowatts that run the chillers. At night, the desert air drops below 20 °C, so free-air cooling works half the day. Operators can also run big radiators after sunset to chill thousands of tons of water or glycol, store it in insulated tanks, and use that ice-cold reservoir as a heat sink all day long. Ample energy and free natural cooling, a data center's dream.

Quality-of-Life Jackpot for Everyone

Drop hyperscale campuses in Nouakchott or Agadir and nearby towns get rock-solid grid power as a free side effect. Local graduates become sysadmins or DevOps engineers earning $50,000-$80,000 a year instead of driving taxis. Africa starts exporting freshly trained 70-billion-parameter model checkpoints, LoRA adapters, and AI weights & biases parameter files the same way Norway exports salmon. Europe and the US get vast amounts of cheap compute without energy transmission fights in Virginia farmland or new gas peaker plants. African governments collect taxes and royalties instead of watching raw resources vanish on ships. Everybody wins, nobody coughs on diesel fumes.

Security and Latency? Already Solved

Subsea fiber from West Africa to Europe has 50-60 ms round-trip latency, perfectly fine for 99% of workloads. Critical low-latency trading stays in London or New York. Everything else (training, inference, storage, rendering, backups, and weights & biases dashboards) is happy in the desert. Microsoft and Google already run big regions in South Africa and are quietly scouting North Africa. The bottleneck is no longer tech; it is imagination.

Conclusion

Africa will be able to generate massive amounts of energy, but they don't need to export every electron. Instead, they can export answers, renders, cat videos, and gigabyte-sized parameter files instead. Let the datacenters chase the photons, not the other way round. The continent gets reliable power, high-skill jobs, and infrastructure investment. The rest of the planet gets vast amounts of renewably powered compute with efficient cooling. Trans-Atlantic fiber cables will glow white-hot with data while trans-Mediterranean energy cables stay stuffed with captured sunlight. The sun keeps rising, the cables keep humming, and nobody has to dig another hole in the ground. Sounds like the easiest win-win since peanut butter met jelly, or as they might say on the Horn, since Injera met Wat.

Africa: The Saudi Arabia of Sunshine

Africa’s Solar Superpower Could Power the Planet

The Horn of Africa is part of Africa's region of abundant sunshine. Cornucopia literally translates to "horn of plenty." Putting these two together, the Horn of Africa could become a cornucopia of renewable energy. 

Introduction

Picture a continent that catches twice the sunshine of Europe, has deserts bigger than Brazil, and could crank out ten times today’s global electricity needs. That continent is Africa. The solar potential there is amazing. The plan is straightforward: overbuild solar until there's a massive midday surplus, then turn the overflow into batteries, data-center juice, or straight-up electrons shipped north. Best part? This resource is not dug up, pumped out, or fought over like diamonds and oil that have caused so much heartache across the continent. This is a generative bounty. The sun rises for free every single day, and nobody can put a fence around it.

Sunlight Numbers That Refuse to Lie

Africa straddles the equator like it knew the era of solar energy was coming and prepared for it. 

Region	Annual Irradiation (kWh/m²)	Typical Capacity Factor
Germany	900-1,200	10-14%
California	1,800-2,200	24-28%
Morocco/Western Sahara	2,200-2,600	30-38%
Northern Kenya	2,300-2,700	32-40%

Sources: World Bank ESMAP, IRENA 2023.
One dollar on panels in Nouakchott, Mauritania buys almost three times the yearly output of the same dollar in Nuremberg, Germany. The sun is not subtle. 

The Overbuild Trick Everyone Is Copying

In the best sites, you deliberately install 2.5-3 times peak demand. From 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., you have surplus. That surplus does not go to waste; it gets put to work:

• Charges grid-scale batteries (Morocco already has 800 MWh online, South Africa over 1 GWh and counting).
• Powers energy-intensive services: AI training clusters, Bitcoin mining, or cloud servers that can ramp up when the sun screams and throttle down when it whispers.
• Flows straight down HVDC cables to European cities while the panels are still cooking (a single Morocco-UK link in late planning would ship 3.6 GW peak).

What Happens After Sunset

Batteries cover the evening ramp for 4-8 hours (exactly what California and South Australia are already doing at scale). Existing hydro from Ethiopia or Zambia handles the overnight lull. Lights stay on, fridges stay cold, and kids can study past sunset without coughing on kerosene fumes. Reliable power transforms daily life, from safer hospitals to air-conditioned schools and small businesses that no longer close at dusk.

Jobs, Justice, and a Satisfying Historical Twist

Scaling this model could create 2-3 million direct jobs by 2035 and pump $100-150 billion a year into African GDP (according to AfDB/IRENA figures). Technicians, engineers, data-center operators, and cable crews collect paychecks instead of watching raw minerals sail away on someone else’s ship. Meanwhile, Europeans and North Americans get the cleanest electrons ever produced, keeping their own lights on without the guilt of extraction or poor air quality from coal or methane power plants. Both sides win: the people generating the energy gain dignity and prosperity; the people using the energy gain affordability and cleaner air.

The Remaining Roadblocks (They’re Shrinking)

Governance hiccups and transmission losses still exist. Morocco already exports solar to Spain until 10 p.m., Namibia powers Johannesburg, and the continent added over 10 GW in the last decade alone. The tech is boringly proven; the financing templates are on the shelf. All that is missing is the political will and financing that doesn't come with colonial strings attached.

Conclusion

Toto might have sang about touching the rain down in Africa, but the kilowatts raining down in Africa is where the future lies. Africa is sitting on the biggest generative energy jackpot on Earth, one that renews itself each dawn. Overbuild solar, stash the excess in batteries and compute, sell the overflow as electrons or services, and suddenly the continent enjoys 24/7 power while the rest of the world buys the cheapest clean energy ever made. The sun has been donating free gigawatts every day for four billion years. Time to install a bigger collection plate and move decisively toward a future free from fossil fuels.

Solid State Sugar Rush: Analyzing the Battery Claims of Donut Labs

Empty Calories of the Energy Era

Battery breakthroughs are the Bigfoot sightings of the energy sector. We hear the rumors; we see the blurry photos; we want to believe. This January, Donut Labs took the stage at CES 2026. They did not bring a new battery; they brought bold claims. Donut is a spinoff from Verge Motorcycles. They claim to have cracked the code of the solid-state battery. They say the future is here today. As an observer of energy storage trends, I find this both exhilarating and exhausting. We have been burned before. Miracle power cell promises are as common as rainy days in Portland. So, I take all such claims with a grain of sodium ions. However, the environmental stakes are too high to just ignore them. If these claims are true, our mobility ecosystems will change dramatically. 

Glased and Confused: Surreal Specs

Donut Labs is not being modest about their technology. They are claiming an energy density of 400 Wh/kg. For those who do not spend their weekends reading technical manuals; this is a massive leap. Most high-end lithium-ion batteries currently sit between 250 and 300 Wh/kg. A higher density means more range for less weight. This is the primary hurdle for heavy-duty electric trucks. This density would also enable electric flight. We could have interstate flights without a drop of kerosene. The claims do not stop at incredible energy density. Donut also promises a 0% to 100% charge in just 5 minutes. This would match the experience of filling a tank with gasoline. Most current electric vehicles take 20 to 40 minutes to reach an 80% charge at a fast charger.

The most shocking claim is the cycle life. Donut Labs claims their cells can survive 100,000 charge cycles. This is an order of magnitude beyond anything in commercial use. Typical lithium-ion batteries degrade after 1,000 to 3,000 cycles. A battery that lasts 100,000 cycles would outlive the car, the driver, and perhaps the garage. This would enable revolutionary V2G and V2H applications. Your car could stabilize the power grid or run your home every night. You would not have to worry about battery degradation. It would represent a massive win for sustainability. We would need to mine fewer materials because we would rarely need to replace the packs.

The Great Batter-y Gap

Performance Metric	Standard Lithium-Ion	Donut Labs Claim	Leap Over Current Tech
Energy Density	270 Wh/kg	400 Wh/kg	48% Increase
Charge Time	30 minutes	5 minutes	6x Faster
Cycle Life	2,500 cycles	100,000 cycles	40x Longer
Operating Temp	Narrow range	-30°C to 100°C	Substantial

There May Be a Hole in Donut's Story

History is a harsh teacher in the battery world. Donut Labs is whistling past a graveyard of previous "breakthroughs." Take Fisker Inc. as a primary example. In 2017, Henrik Fisker claimed his company had a solid-state breakthrough. He promised a 1-minute charge and 500 miles of range. By 2021, the company quietly abandoned the program. They admitted the science was much harder than the marketing department suggested. Fisker eventually filed for bankruptcy in 2024.

Then there is the story of Dyson. The vacuum kingpin spent nearly $90 million to acquire a startup called Sakti3. They wanted to build a solid-state electric vehicle. The claims were spectacular. The reality was a lack of scalability. Dyson eventually scrapped the $2.5 billion project entirely. Even massive corporations like Bosch have struggled. Bosch bought a startup named Seeo in 2015. They hoped to lead the European battery market. Within three years, they sold the assets and exited the research. They realized the path to mass production was a financial black hole.

The Transparent Truth of Testing

The primary reason for skepticism is the lack of independent validation. Donut Labs says these batteries are available today. Their website invites original equipment manufacturers to place orders. Yet, no independent researcher has touched a cell. No university lab has run stress tests. At CES; the physical evidence was underwhelming. Observers noted that the "battery" on display looked like a 3D-printed plastic box. It even featured an HDMI port for some reason. This does not inspire confidence in a world of rigorous material science. Later, it was confirmed that this was just an example of the casing, not an actual battery cell.

In the scientific community, we rely on peer-reviewed data. We look for white papers that explain the electrolyte composition. We want to see how the battery handles dendrite growth and high voltages. Donut Labs has kept their cards very close to their chest. They refuse to discuss the specific chemistry. They will not explain how they solved the interface issues between the solid electrolyte and the electrodes. Until a third party can verify these 100,000 cycles, the claims remain in the realm of vaporware. As a wise man once said, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. So far, we only have extraordinary marketing hype. 

Dough-not believe the hype until you see the jelly filling; otherwise, you are just glazing over the laws of physics.

A Hopeful Horizon for High Energy

Despite my skepticism, I remain hopeful. The transition to sustainable energy depends on better storage. Solid-state batteries are the logical next step. They completely remove the flammable liquid electrolytes from battery cells. This makes them safer and more stable. They also allow for much faster charging with less degradation. If Donut Labs has actually found a way to mass-produce these cells, the environmental benefits are staggering.

Imagine a world where a single battery pack lasts 50+ years. This would drastically reduce the demand for lithium, cobalt, and nickel. It would simplify the recycling process. It would make electric vehicles accessible to everyone, not just those with home chargers. We want Donut Labs to be right. We want the "available today" label to be a literal truth. The planet needs a win. We just cannot afford to get our hopes up every time a startup says "Yureka!" We have seen too many batteries disappear into the shadows of venture capital failure.

A Future Free From Fossil Fuels

In conclusion, Donut Labs is either the most important company of the century and a Nobel Prize is coming their way, or they are masters of hype, and they'll eventually be bagged as day-olds. Their specs defy the current laws of industrial chemistry. They are promising a future that the largest battery manufacturers in the world cannot yet deliver. We have watched companies like A123 Systems and Bolloré struggle with these exact challenges. We have seen the hype cycles of the well-funded QuantumScape and Solid Power move their goalposts year after year.

We should keep a close watch on Verge Motorcycles and their spinoff. If they deliver a motorcycle with these specs this year, we will celebrate. We will gladly admit we were wrong to doubt them. However, for now, we should keep our credit cards in our wallets. We need to see the data. We need to see the cells in the labs. We need to see the factory. Science is not a matter of belief; it is a matter of proof. We are all rooting for a breakthrough that leads us toward a future free from fossil fuels. Let us just hope this Donut has some substance in the middle.

Fossil Fuel Companies Extract Trust and Pollute Public Discourse

Extracting Trust, Polluting Truth: How Fossil Fuel Giants Mirror Their Physical Mess in the Figurative Way

Everyone knows the classic extract and pollute story: companies pump crude oil and "natural" gas out of the ground, then dump carbon dioxide, methane, plastics, and toxic sludge into the air, water, and soil. Neat profit for them, nasty hangover for the rest of us. What few people notice is how the same firms run an almost identical racket in the non-physical realm. They extract priceless social goods (trust, attention, political bandwidth, scientific credibility) and leave behind long-lived pollution (disinformation, cynicism, delayed policy, fractured communities). The parallels are so tight it is almost funny, until you remember who pays the cleanup bill.

The Many Faces of Figurative Extraction and Pollution

The extractive practices go beyond the oil patch; they reach into your home, your government, your children, and your trust.

What They Extract	What They Pollute	Real-World Example
Public trust	Information ecosystem	Exxon’s 1980s internal memos correctly predicted warming, while public ads insisted “science isn’t settled”
Scientific authority	Academic independence	Funding front groups like the Global Climate Coalition and Heartland Institute to publish contrarian papers
Political capital	Democratic processes	Top five oil majors spent $124 million lobbying Washington DC in 2022 alone
Youth optimism & attention	Cultural narratives	Sponsoring science museums and stadiums (e.g., Shell’s “Future Energy” exhibits) while planning decades more fossil expansion
Investor and pension money	Financial system clarity	Rebranding as “energy companies” and counting unproven carbon capture toward “net-zero” promises
Policy urgency	Possibility space for real solutions	Pushing “natural gas as bridge fuel” and “hydrogen will save us” talking points for twenty years
Community cohesion	Local social license	Showering small extraction towns with donations to police and schools, then fighting tax assessments

Trust Extraction, FUD Edition

The industry has been running a world-class Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) franchise since at least the 1970s. Exxon’s own scientists nailed the climate problem by 1982, yet the company spent the next forty years funding think tanks that churned out books, op-eds, and congressional testimony insisting nothing was proven. That is not debate; that is deliberate littering in the shared information commons. Every misleading study acts like figurative CO₂: it hangs around for decades, gumming up discourse long after the original check cleared.

Political Pipeline to Nowhere

Lobbying dollars flow upstream like tankers full of crude, while downstream we get gridlock and half-measures. The same week Shell announces another $10 billion USD share buyback, trade associations are in Brussels and Washington D.C., killing carbon taxes and watering down methane rules. They extract legislative oxygen that could have gone to efficiency standards or grid upgrades, then release hot air in return. Classic externalization of costs, just with suits instead of smokestacks.

Cultural Sponsorship as Soft Power

Nothing says “we care about the future” like slapping your logo on a children’s science exhibit while quietly permitting another liquefied natural gas terminal. Museums, sports arenas, university departments, and even PBS segments have all accepted petrol cash. The transaction is simple: companies buy a halo of social acceptability, and in exchange, the public culture gets a subtle but persistent message that these firms are part of the solution, not the core of the problem.

Financial Greenwashing, Now in Beige

Investors and pension funds hand over trillions, expecting responsible stewardship. What they get is creative accounting: new plastics plants labeled “advanced recycling,” methane leaks called “venting opportunities,” and carbon capture pilots hyped as if they will scale tomorrow. The industry extracts capital that could have built wind farms or battery factories and leaves behind uncapped wells, stranded assets, and embarrassed fiduciaries.

Conclusion

The fossil fuel sector has perfected a double extraction business: one barrel of physical hydrocarbons, one barrel of social goods. Both leave behind waste that lingers far longer than the profits. The good news is that sunlight, wind, and human ingenuity are infinite resources that do not require disinformation budgets or lobbyist armies to work. The faster we shift investment, attention, and policy toward those truly inexhaustible sources, the sooner we get to a future free from fossil fuels and free from the figurative pollution that has cost us so much already.

From Burning to Building: Why Decarbonization Means Mining Less, Not More

The Weight of the World

If you spend enough time in the comments section of energy articles (a pastime I recommend only to those with very low blood pressure), you will inevitably encounter a specific, confident assertion. It usually goes something like this: "Sure, solar panels and wind turbines sound nice, but do you know how much mining they require? We are going to have to dig up the entire Earth just to build a few batteries!"

It's a compelling mental image. We imagine excavators tearing up pristine landscapes to feed the insatiable hunger of a battery-powered civilization. It feels intuitive that replacing a high-energy fuel like coal with physical infrastructure like turbines would require a massive increase in our material footprint.

But intuition is often terrible at math. When we actually crunch the numbers, the reality is the exact opposite. With renewables, we're not about to mine the planet to death; we are about to stop.

The Heavyweight Champion (of mining): Coal

To understand why the future is lighter than the past, we first have to look at the scale of our current addiction. Humanity has a voracious appetite for fossil fuels, specifically coal and crude oil. It is heavy, it is bulky, and we burn an incomprehensible amount of it.

In 2023 alone, the world mined approximately 8.5 billion metric tons (tonnes) of coal. Remember this number (8.5 tonnes of coal).

Let that number sink in. That is not a cumulative total over a decade; that is what we dug up, transported, and set on fire in a single trip around our star. To visualize this, imagine a line of dump trucks wrapping around the equator multiple times. And the kicker? Next year, we have to do it all over again. If we want the lights to stay on, the digging never stops. This is the definition of a "flow" resource. We extract it solely to destroy it, creating a one-way conveyor belt from the mine, through an incinerator, and into the atmosphere.

The Challenger: Transition Materials

Now, let's look at the "horrific" mining requirements of the energy transition. The Energy Transitions Commission (ETC), a global coalition of energy leaders, crunched the data on what it would actually take to build a low-carbon global economy. They tallied up the steel for wind turbines, the silicon for solar panels, the copper for transmission lines, and the lithium, nickel, and cobalt for batteries.

Their estimate? Building a global renewable energy system by 2050 will require a cumulative total of around 6.5 billion tonnes of materials. Remember coal's number, it was 8.5 tonnes. The total material weight to build the entire infrastructure of a sustainable energy future (over the next quarter century) is roughly 2 billion tonnes less than the amount of coal we mine in a single year.

The Tale of the Tape: The Material Reality of the Energy Transition 

To make this comparison easier to digest, here is a breakdown of the material realities:

Category	Fossil Economy (Coal)	Renewable Economy (Transition)
Material Type	Fuel (consumable)	Infrastructure (recyclable)
Annual Extraction	~8.5 billion tonnes	~0.2 billion tonnes (average)
Cumulative (25 Years)	~255 billion tonnes	~6.5 billion tonnes
End of Life	Ash, PM2.5, and atmospheric carbon	Recyclable metals
Economic Cost	~$430 billion (2020 revenue)	High upfront, near-zero marginal cost

Stock vs. Flow: A Physics Lesson

The reason for this massive discrepancy is the difference between "stocks" and "flows." Fossil fuels are flows. You need a constant stream of them to produce value. A coal plant is useless without a steady supply of coal, just as a gas car is a two-ton paperweight without a tank of gas.

Renewables are stocks. When you mine the lithium for a battery or the copper for a wind turbine, you are building a technological asset. That asset then sits there and generates value for 20 to 30 years without needing a single gram of additional fuel. We are essentially paying upfront. We dig the hole once, build the machine, and then let recycling do the rest.

Even when you factor in the movement of waste rock (tailings) from copper and lithium mining, the total displacement of material is still orders of magnitude lower for renewables. We are trading a system that moves mountains annually for one that moves molehills occasionally.

The Circularity Bonus

There is another delightful feature of metals that coal sadly lacks: they do not burn up. When you burn a tonne of coal, it turns into CO2 and toxic ash. You cannot un-burn it. It is gone, leaving behind only a climate bill that our grandchildren will have to pay. And as we discussed here in December, even if you could recapture the CO2, you still haven't solved all the problems that the "mine and burn" industry causes.

Metals are different. The copper in a wind turbine today is the copper in a transmission line in 2045. The lithium in an EV battery can be recovered and put into a new battery. We are already seeing recycling rates for lead-acid batteries hit near 99% in many regions. While lithium-ion recycling is still ramping up, the potential is obvious. Over time, we will transition from mining geological deposits to "urban mining" (recovering materials from old tech to build new tech).

This means that the 6.5 billion tonnes of materials we need is a one-time event, not an annual bonfire tradition. It is a start-up cost. Once the system is built, the need for virgin mining plummets. We enter a phase of maintenance and circularity, rather than the perpetual extraction cycle of the fossil age.

With renewables, what flows is sunshine, wind, and electrons, not coal and methane.

Conclusion

It is easy to be cynical about the scale of the challenge ahead. The transition to clean energy is a massive industrial undertaking, and it will absolutely require mining. We need to be vigilant about where and how that mining happens, ensuring it respects local communities and biodiversity. We cannot give mining companies a free pass just because they are digging minerals instead of coal.

We must also be mathematically literate. The narrative that renewables will devour the earth is a myth that relies on ignoring the gargantuan, unending destruction by the fossil fuel supply chain. We have become so desensitized to the 8.5 billion tonnes of coal we extract every year that we treat it as background noise, while hyper-focusing on the fraction of that amount needed for a permanent solution.

In this transition, we are trading a high-volume, wasteful, single-use disposable system for a durable, recyclable one. It is an efficiency upgrade for the entire planet. The numbers are clear: the path to a future free from fossil fuels is not just cleaner; it also has a significantly lighter mining footprint.

Fossil Fuel Subsidies Harm the Environment and Taxpayers

The fossil fuel industry receives extensive subsidies that distort markets, exacerbate environmental degradation, and burden taxpayers with unnecessary costs. This support comes in many forms and perpetuates reliance on polluting energy sources at a time when climate change demands urgent action. In the US, direct and indirect fossil fuel subsidies totaled approximately $760 billion in 2025, encompassing tax preferences, unpriced externalities, and other forms of support.^[1] This figure dwarfs investments in renewable energy and undermines efforts to transition to cleaner alternatives. By shielding oil, gas, and coal companies from the true costs of their operations, these subsidies not only accelerate global warming but also shift financial responsibilities onto the public, including cleanup of abandoned sites and mitigation of health impacts. It is crucial to dismantle these outdated policies to foster environmental stewardship and economic equity.

The fossil fuel sector is an extractive industry, and they have figured out how to extract cash from the government and the public.

One primary form of subsidy comes through direct tax breaks and government funding that reduce the industry's operational costs. For instance, the US government provides roughly $39 billion annually in explicit subsidies to fossil fuel producers, including deductions for intangible drilling costs and depletion allowances that allow companies to write off resource extraction expenses.^[2] The One Big Beautiful Bill increased this amount by $4 billion. These incentives encourage expanded production, even in environmentally sensitive areas such as offshore waters. Offshore oil drilling benefits from additional supports, such as royalty relief programs and federal leasing policies that underprice public lands and waters.^[3] Such policies ignore the risks of oil spills and habitat destruction, prioritizing short-term profits over long-term ecological health.

Beyond direct aid, taxpayers often foot the bill for plugging and capping abandoned wells, a process essential to prevent methane leaks, groundwater contamination, and soil erosion. When small oil and gas companies declare bankruptcy or abandon sites, the responsibility falls to federal and state governments. In the US, there are an estimated 3.2 million unplugged wells, with cleanup costs projected at $271 billion.^[4] Plugging a single well, including surface reclamation, averages $76,000, but costs can escalate in complex offshore environments.^[5] Offshore wells pose unique challenges due to deeper waters and harsher conditions; temporarily abandoned platforms in federal waters alone could require $9.8 billion for proper decommissioning.^[6] Despite the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act allocating $4.7 billion for orphan well plugging in 2021, this funding covers only a fraction of the need, leaving taxpayers exposed to a potential shortfall of up to $17.7 billion.^[7] These expenditures represent a hidden subsidy, as industry bonding requirements are often insufficient to cover actual cleanup costs.

Externalities further amplify the subsidies by imposing unaccounted-for costs on society. Fossil fuels generate massive environmental and health damages that companies do not pay for, including air pollution, climate impacts, and biodiversity loss. In the US, these externalities contribute hundreds of billions to the annual subsidy total, with coal alone imposing $330 billion to $500 billion in economic burdens through health effects like respiratory diseases and premature deaths.^[8] Transportation fuels, predominantly fossil-based, account for the largest share of these costs, exacerbating urban smog and contributing to 84% of primary energy production.^[9] Public health systems and disaster response efforts bear the brunt, with taxpayers funding treatments for pollution-related illnesses and recovery from extreme weather events amplified by greenhouse gas emissions.

Subsidy Type	Estimated Annual Cost	Key Environmental Impacts
Direct US Tax Breaks	$39 billion	Encourages overproduction, leading to higher emissions and habitat disruption
Orphan Well Plugging	$10 billion to $15 billion (amortized over sites)	Methane leaks from unplugged wells contribute 20% to 30% of US methane emissions
Offshore Drilling Incentives	$5 billion to $10 billion	Risks oil spills, marine ecosystem damage, and coastal erosion
Unpriced Externalities	$500 billion to $700 billion	Air pollution causes 200,000 premature deaths annually; accelerates climate change, coastal erosion, and more

Abandoned site cleanup extends beyond wells to include broader remediation of polluted lands, where oil spills and chemical leaks contaminate soil and water. Taxpayers have shouldered costs exceeding $1 billion for individual sites in some cases, as seen in California, where carbon storage plans by oil firms may shift billions in liabilities to the public.^[10] This pattern underscores how the industry externalizes risks, profiting during extraction while leaving communities to deal with toxic legacies.

The myriad subsidies propping up the fossil fuel industry represent a profound injustice to both the environment and taxpayers. By channeling billions into polluting practices, including offshore drilling, well capping, and abandoned site remediation, these policies delay the shift to sustainable energy and perpetuate ecological harm. Policymakers must eliminate these supports. On a level playing field, renewables win as the fastest, most affordable way to produce energy. Only through such decisive action can we safeguard our planet for future generations and ensure that economic progress aligns with environmental integrity.

[1] Fossil Fuel Subsidies: The $760 Billion Lie About 'Free Market' Energy - FracTracker Alliance, March 14, 2025

[2] Fossil Fuel Subsidies Are a Violent Betrayal of the American People - Food & Water Watch, May 7, 2025

[3] Taxpayers Will Pay Billions in New Fossil Fuel Subsidies Thanks to Megabill - Society of Environmental Journalists, September 9, 2025

[4] Filling the Hole: A Federal Solution to Cleaning Up America's Orphaned and Abandoned Oil and Gas Wells - Ohio River Valley Institute, November 8, 2024

[5] Billions of Dollars to Clean Up Abandoned Oil and Gas Wells Will Only Make a Dent - Stateline, October 12, 2023

[6] Fixing Abandoned Offshore Oil Wells Can Create Jobs and Protect the Ocean - Center for American Progress, April 20, 2022

[7] Billions of Dollars to Clean Up Abandoned Oil and Gas Wells Will Only Make a Dent - Stateline, October 12, 2023

[8] Harvard Study: Coal Costs America $330-500 Billion Annually - HuffPost, March 6, 2011

[9] U.S. Energy Facts Explained - Consumption and Production - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

[10] California Oil Firm's Carbon Storage Plans May Shift Cleanup Costs to Taxpayers - Environmental Health News, December 16, 2024

Community Solar: Sharing Sunshine for Shared Savings

Solar for everyone, no roof required.

Sunshine is a universal resource. It lands on roofs and parking lots in ritzy neighborhoods and working-class alike without prejudice. For years, however, the ability to harvest that light was a luxury for only the landed gentry. If you lived in an apartment or a rental, you were out of luck. If your house sat beneath the majestic canopy of a Douglas fir, you were also out of luck. Rooftop solar requires a specific type of privilege: you must own a sturdy roof, and that roof must be mostly shade-free. And you had to find the right financing to make the economics work. Oregonians are famous for their love of nature and the outdoors, but many were functionally locked out of the renewable energy revolution for one reason or another.

Oregon Community Solar has changed the game. It allows regular folks to subscribe to a portion of a massive solar array located in their service area. You do not need a ladder or a tool belt; you don't need a roof; and you don't need cash to join. You just need a utility bill and a desire for lower costs. This program is a win for the climate, the consumer, and the local economy. It represents a sophisticated shift in how we think about energy. 

Beneficial Beams and Better Air

The environmental perks of community solar are straightforward and significant. Every kilowatt-hour generated by a farm like Rodeo Solar in Molalla or Apricus Solar near Grand Ronde is a kilowatt-hour that does not come from a coal plant or a gas turbine. We are talking about taking steps on a local level. This is not just an abstract global goal; it is about clean air in the Willamette Valley. These projects create a decentralized grid. Power is generated closer to where it is used. This reduces transmission loss, which is the energy wasted when electricity travels long distances over high-voltage lines. There is also a beautiful side effect that happens under these panels called agrivoltaics. Many community solar projects use the land for two things at once. Sheep might graze in the shade beneath the panels to keep the grass short. Pollinator gardens might grow under the panels, keeping the soil healthy and supporting local ecosystems. It's a power plant and a productive piece of habitat.

The Apartment Dweller's Delight

Why would a residential customer sign up? The answer is usually found in the wallet. Most subscribers see an annual savings of 2% to 15% on their electricity costs. Wait, savings? Don't you have to pay more for green energy? PGE (and many utilities) have wind energy opt-in programs where you can pay about $5 more per month to fund wind farm developments. It's great to support wind, but we don't all have $5 to donate each month. Community solar is different, better. 

For standard income participants, the model is simple. All the billing is handled on your electricity bill. You receive a credit on your electricity bill along with a community subscription fee. The subscription fee is guaranteed to be less than your credit. Most (but not all) of the credit goes to the subscription fee to pay for the land lease, the solar panels, and maintenance. It's an arbitrage of sorts. You get solar and your bill is smaller!

For low-income households, the deal is even better. The state mandates a minimum 20% discount for these participants. There are no upfront costs, no credit checks, and no cancellation fees for these residents. This ensures that the transition to clean energy is not just for the wealthy. It is an equity tool. You get the warm glow of supporting local renewables without the $20,000 price tag of a private rooftop installation. And if you're an EV driver, now you can power your ride with sunshine and pay even less per mile.

Navigating the Nitty-Gritty

Signing up is surprisingly easy; you do not need an advanced degree in physics. First, grab your most recent PGE bill. You need your account number and meter id number. Next, visit the official website at OregonCSP.org. This is the central hub for all active projects. You sign up and they'll pull your usage data to size your subscription correctly. Most contracts limit you to 85% or 90% of your annual usage to avoid over-subscription. This protects you from paying for energy you do not use. You sign a disclosure form and a contract. After that, you just wait for the project to go live. Your credits will start appearing automatically on your utility bill each month. It is a set-it-and-forget-it system.

Stakeholder Benefits Comparison

This seems too good to be true, so I wanted to see what each party was getting and why they'd be participating. Here's what I found:

Stakeholder	Primary Motivation	Financial Upside
Residential Subscriber	Lower Monthly Bills	2% to 15% Net Savings
Project Manager & Solar Developer	Long-term Investment	Tax Credits, Subscription Income
Utility (PGE, Pacific Power)	State Compliance	No development cost to meet state renewable goals
Landowner	Long Term Passive Income	$1,000 to $4,000 per Acre

The Manager's Magic Margin

You might wonder how these solar farms actually make money. Project managers are not just doing this out of the goodness of their hearts. They are running a business. The primary engine is the US federal Investment Tax Credit. This provides a 30% or 40% credit on the total cost of construction. They also collect the monthly subscription fees from hundreds of people. These managers often bundle the tax credits and sell them to large investors. This gives them the cash they need to build the array. Once the project is operational, it becomes a steady annuity. It is a low-risk, long-term income stream. The project manager handles the maintenance and insurance while the sun does the heavy lifting. It is a persistent panel planning success story. And the utility handles all the billing for them, so they don't have to deal with every subscriber every month.

The Utility's Understated Upgrade

Portland General Electric is a partner in this process for several reasons. First, Oregon law requires them to reach 100% clean energy by 2040. Community solar helps them hit those targets without PGE having to spend its own capital to build massive solar and wind farms. These distributed community energy resources also help the grid stay stable. When power is produced in many small locations rather than one giant central plant, the system is more resilient. It reduces the strain on substations during peak summer hours. PGE also earns some administrative fees to cover the cost of managing the billing integration. It allows them to offer a clean energy option to their customers without the political headache of massive utility-scale land grabs and permitting. It is a strategic move that satisfies regulators and customers alike.

Passive Profits for the Patient Planter

Finally, we have the landowners. In places like Clackamas County, farmers are finding that sunlight is a very reliable crop. A typical community solar project like Rodeo Solar occupies 10 to 12 acres. A landowner can lease that land to a developer for a healthy sum. These leases often pay $1,000 to $4,000 per acre per year. That is a significant increase over what someone might make from hay or grazing. It provides a stable, guaranteed income stream for 20 or 25 years. This can be the difference between a family keeping their farm or selling it to a developer for a housing tract. Some plants thrive in the partial shade that solar provides. It is a way to save the atmosphere for future generations while earning a profit today.

The Sunny Side of the Street

The Oregon Community Solar Program is a masterclass in collaborative economics. It takes a complex technological shift and makes it accessible to the masses. It rewards the developer for their risk. It pays the farmer for their land. It helps the utility meet its legal obligations. Most importantly, it gives the average person a way to participate in a sustainable transition, while saving money. We are seeing the rise of a new energy landscape. It's local, it's fair, and it's effective. By bridging the gap between those who want solar and those who can actually install it, Oregon has created a blueprint for other states and the rest of the world. As more projects like Rodeo and Apricus come online, the benefits will only multiply. We are moving toward a more resilient grid and a more inclusive economy. Programs like this are a vital step toward a future free from fossil fuels.

If you sign up, tell them Pat from CarWithCords sent you 🌞

Oregon Put EVs on the Wrong Road

Background

Oregon House Bill 3991 passed on September 29, 2025, and was signed into law on November 8, 2025. Here's what it does: as of July 1, 2027, EV drivers in Oregon, when renewing vehicle registration, in addition to an $85 annual registration fee*, will have to pay 2.3¢/mile (payments are made quarterly, totalling $276/year at 12,000 miles) or a $340 flat annual fee. This starts for new EV registration on January 1, 2028.

* Registration is paid Biennial (2 Years) at $170.

Introduction

Oregon fancies itself a progressive beacon: bike lanes everywhere, bottle bills since 1971, and a governor who once rode a bicycle to her own inauguration. We even recently praised the state's efforts to electrify trucks and buses. So you'd think the state would roll out the red carpet for electric vehicles. Instead, Oregon lawmakers quietly slapped EVs with road-use fees that treat the zero-tailpipe rides the same as a belching 20 MPG V8 pickup. Welcome to the Beaver State, where efficiency gets punished, and political expediency runs the show.

The Math That Makes You Spit Coffee

Starting in 2027, every pure battery-electric vehicle in Oregon must pay a mandatory road-usage charge. The base rate is 2.3 cents per mile. With the simultaneous gas-tax bump to 46 cents per gallon, that works out to exactly the same tax burden as a gasoline car getting 20 mpg.

Vehicle Type	Annual Miles	Effective Tax Paid	Equivalent MPG Treatment
50 mpg hybrid	12,000	$110	50 mpg actual
Average new car	12,000	$190	33 mpg actual
EV paying per-mile	12,000	$276	20 mpg equivalent
EV on flat-rate option	12,000	$340	16.3 mpg equivalent

Yes, you read that last row correctly. If you refuse any form of mileage reporting (because you do not want a dongle, an app, or quarterly odometer selfies), Oregon lets you pay a flat ~$340 per year. At typical mileage, that is the same tax as a 16 mpg full-size SUV. Congratulations: your efficient EV now subsidizes roads more than 95 % of the vehicles actually driving on them.

The “Privacy” Tax Nobody Asked For

Lawmakers proudly proclaim that drivers have “choices.” Choice one: let a private company read your odometer every three months and pay quarterly invoices. Choice two: pay 23 % more to avoid the hassle. That is like a restaurant charging extra if you do not want them to livestream your dinner. Some owners will swallow the bureaucratic indigestion and install a tracker or send odo photos, but thousands will simply pay the penalty because life is short to perpetually send photos every quarter to a government contractor.

Political Horse-Trading in Flannel Shirts

A massive $12 billion state funding package died in the regular 2025 session amid partisan chaos. This left the state in a bind. Oregon’s roads needed work, the treasury was bleeding $150 million a year, and gas-tax receipts kept shrinking as cars got thriftier and EVs multiplied. Without new cash, ODOT faced 500 layoffs, potholes going unfilled, and minimal snowplowing on mountain passes. 

Making EVs pay more was never about fairness or physics; it was about votes. In the initial version of the bill, EVs paid the same as the average vehicle. However, rural legislators refused to raise the gas tax more than 6 cents unless city-dwelling EV owners “paid their share.” Forget that EV drivers have already paid a premium for the vehicle and that it does not foul the air, or that paying the same as the average gas burner would be a "fair share." The desperation was clear, and they took advantage of it. Rather than pickup drivers to chip in an extra dime per gallon, Oregon politicians shifted the burden to the small 3-4 % of vehicles that happen to be electric. The result? A Tesla Model 3 pays about the same as a Ram 1500 Hemi, while a Prius Prime pays about half as much. Brilliant fuel-efficiency incentive, Salem.

Weight, Wear, and Worn-Out Excuses

Defenders sometimes claim heavier EVs tear up roads more, so higher fees are justified. Reality check: the average EV is only ~300-600 lbs heavier than its gasoline counterpart, and the heaviest road damage comes from studded tires, chains, and commercial trucks (which were exempt from these debates). Pavement science says an extra 500 lbs in a passenger vehicle's weight has a de minimis wear increase. And if weight is the relevant factor, then Oregon’s fee structure should be based on vehicle weight instead of this messed-up system that punishes efficiency. Consistency was apparently on vacation that week.

Conclusion

Oregon had a chance to lead. They could have implemented a modest per-mile EV rate that matched modern fleet efficiency. This could have raised the needed revenue and kept EV attractive in the state. Instead, lawmakers chose a blunt, regressive approach that rewards guzzlers and nickel-and-dimes the very technology that moves us toward cleaner air and energy independence.

Until the legislature revisits this blunder in 2029 or 2031, thousands of Oregon drivers will pay extra every year simply for choosing zero-emission transportation. Here is hoping the next transportation package doesn't put roadblocks on our path to a future free from fossil fuels.

Wires Over Wells: Petrostates Perish as Electrostates Emerge

The New Currency: Gigawatts, Not Barrels

Energy has always been the ultimate backstage pass to prosperity. Whoever could concentrate and direct the most joules climbed the global pecking order. Today, we stand at a pivot point where the old oil kingdoms are fading and tomorrow's giants will be measured not by how many barrels they pump, but by how many terawatt-hours they can reliably deliver. The future is electric, and the future is hungry.

Energy: The Original Cheat Code for Civilization

Go far enough back, and superpower status came down to calories. Rome fed legions on grain, Britain harnessed coal to run steam engines, and the 20th-century US rode an ocean of cheap oil to global dominance. Each energy leap (literal horse-power, windmills, water wheels, steam locomotion, internal combustion) multiplied what one human could achieve. Fast-forward to 2025, global primary energy use stands at around 620 exajoules (EJ), with electricity accounting for roughly 20% of final consumption. That slice is about to explode.

Universal Energy

Musk's Megawatt Mantra

Elon Musk has discussed the importance of useful energy output and how it equates to economic output. In his words, "To first approximation, any given country's goods and services production will be proportionate to their energy output." He loves the Kardashev Scale and routinely points out that solar energy hitting Earth every hour dwarfs all human energy use for a year. The bottleneck is not sunlight; it is the collection, storage, and distribution of it. Nations that master those three will become the new superpowers. Everyone else gets a participation trophy (and rolling blackouts).

From Petrostates to Electrostates

The transition has started. We are swapping tailpipes for charging ports and gas furnaces for heat pumps at warp speed. The shift is so broad it deserves its own nickname: I suggest "The Great Electrification." Every machine that once burned something on-site now wants electrons. The table below illustrates the extent of the swap's impact.

Sector	Old Way (Burn Baby Burn)	New Way (Electron Edition)	Energy Efficiency Gain
Passenger cars	Gasoline ICE	Battery EV	~300%
Home heating	Gas furnace	Heat-pump	~300-400%
Cooking	Natural-gas stove	Induction cooktop	~40%
Heavy trucks	Diesel	Battery EV	~200-250%
Steel making	Coal blast furnace	Electric arc + DRI	~60%
Lawn care	Two-stroke gas mower	Battery electric	~100%
Shipping (short sea)	Bunker fuel	Battery or shore power	~400% at wheel

Sources: IEA, Rocky Mountain Institute, and real-world fleet data.

The pattern is unmistakable. Every conversion delivers 2-4x the useful work from the same primary energy. Suddenly, you do not need to replace every drop of oil; you need one-quarter of the primary energy if you deliver it as electricity. This frees up energy for new uses.

The Autonomous Age Accelerates Everything

Self-driving cars, humanoid robots, and AI inference and training clusters consume megawatts aplenty, and the demand curve is going exponential. One million robotaxis driving 100,000 miles per year each could save society billions of barrels of oil while gobbling perhaps 50 TWh of electricity. Check out these links for more on the autonomy tsunami and AI tipping points.

Meanwhile, oil demand has likely peaked forever. Global liquids consumption may top out this year. The fall is just getting started.

Infrastructure Is the New Oilfield

In an all-electric world, three things separate winners from whiners:

• Raw generation (solar and/or wind)
• Storage (batteries, pumped hydro, whatever holds electrons overnight)
• Transmission (high-voltage lines that move power from windy hilltops to hungry urban centers and from sunny southern regions to cloudy northern regions without melting)

Countries standing up battery factories, solar farms, and HVDC lines today are effectively drilling the 21st-century equivalent of supertankers - except with wells that never run dry. Musk saw this coming almost a decade ago when Tesla bought SolarCity to lock in the solar & battery energy combo. Those still building LNG terminals and oil pipelines are polishing the brass on a sinking ship. Stranded assets anyone?

The future is electric, and the future is hungry.

Wrapping Up

The punchline is simple. Yesterday's giants grew rich by mastering combustion. Tomorrow's giants will grow rich by mastering conduction. The nations that generate, store, and move the most electrons will power the most robots, train the best AI models, and deliver the highest living standards. Oil will not disappear overnight, but its strategic importance is evaporating faster than a Blockbuster Video membership. We are trading petrostates for electrostates, and the currency has changed from black goo to bright sparks. The race is on, and the finish line is a future free from fossil fuels.