Why You Need Solar - Ever Increasing Utility Bills

PGE: Electricity Costs and Emissions (2007–2025)

The cost of electricity and its environmental impact have been critical concerns for many energy customers for a long time. In 2007, the residential rate was 8.19¢ per kWh. Today in 2025, the price is more than double at 17.43¢.

Over the past couple of decades, electricity prices have risen steadily, while carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent emissions per kilowatt-hour (kWh) have decreased significantly. This article explores the historical trends in Portland General Electric's (PGE) residential electricity costs and emissions, key price change dates, and the transformative benefits of adopting solar panels and home battery systems, such as the Tesla Powerwall. By examining these trends and technologies, homeowners can better understand how to manage rising costs and contribute to a cleaner energy future.

Electricity Costs and Emissions Trends

From 2007 to 2025, PGE’s residential electricity prices increased from approximately 8.19 cents per kWh to 17.43 cents per kWh. That means PGE customers are now paying more than twice as much as they were in 2007. PGE is far from the only utility that's been raising rates. The average US electric bill is up ~40% from 2007 to 2025 (far outpacing inflation).

For PGE, each of these increases was approved by the Oregon Public Utility Commission (OPUC). Notable price changes include an 18% increase on January 1, 2024, adding about $24 to monthly bills, and a 5.5% increase on January 1, 2025, raising average bills to around $160 per month, according to OPB reports. Additional adjustments, such as a 2% increase in April 2024 for wildfire mitigation, highlight the dynamic ever-increasing nature of utility pricing.

CO2 emissions per kWh have decreased significantly, from an estimated 0.5 pounds per kWh in 2007 to approximately 0.05 pounds per kWh by 2025. This reduction is largely due to the closure of the coal-fired Boardman plant in 2020 and PGE’s increased reliance on wind, solar, and hydroelectric power, aligning with Oregon’s clean energy mandates and PGE’s goal of an 80% emissions reduction by 2030. These changes have made PGE’s energy mix cleaner, but rising costs continue to challenge homeowners.

Benefits of Solar Panels and Home Batteries

Installing solar panels and home battery systems, such as the Tesla Powerwall, offers significant advantages for PGE customers during this period of rising electricity costs and evolving energy policies. These benefits include cost savings, energy independence, environmental impact, and resilience against outages.

Cost Savings: Solar panels allow homeowners to generate their own electricity, reducing reliance on PGE’s grid and offsetting rising costs. For example, with rates reaching 17.43 cents per kWh in 2025, a solar system producing 10,000 kWh annually could save approximately $1,743 per year. Home batteries like the Tesla Powerwall store excess solar energy for use during peak pricing hours or at night, further reducing bills. Oregon’s solar incentives, including federal tax credits and potential state rebates, can lower installation costs, making solar and storage systems more accessible.

Energy Independence: Solar and battery systems provide greater control over energy consumption. By storing solar energy, homeowners can avoid purchasing electricity during high-cost periods, especially as PGE’s tiered rates increase (e.g., 19.45 cents per kWh for usage above 1,000 kWh in 2025). This independence is particularly valuable given the 18% and 5.5% rate hikes in 2024 and 2025, respectively.

Environmental Impact: With PGE’s emissions dropping to 0.05 pounds per kWh by 2025, solar panels further reduce a household’s carbon footprint by producing clean energy. Pairing solar with a Powerwall ensures that clean energy is used efficiently, minimizing reliance on grid power, which, despite improvements, still includes some fossil fuel sources. This aligns with Oregon’s sustainability goals and supports PGE’s clean energy transition.

Resilience Against Outages: The Tesla Powerwall provides backup power during outages, which are increasingly common due to wildfires and extreme weather in Oregon. With a capacity of 13.5 kWh, a single Powerwall can power essential appliances for hours, enhancing home resilience. This is particularly relevant given PGE’s investments in wildfire mitigation, which contributed to rate increases in 2024.

Timeline of Annual Price and Emissions Averages

The following table summarizes estimated annual average electricity costs and CO2 emissions per kWh for PGE residential customers from 2007 to 2025, based on EIA data, PGE tariffs, and emission trends:

Year	Average Cost per kWh (cents)	CO2 Emissions per kWh (lbs)	Notes
2007	8.19	~0.5	Initial high coal use
2008	8.49	~0.48	Emissions slightly lower
2009	8.68	~0.45	Economic factors
2010	8.87	~0.42	Baseline emissions
2011	9.54	~0.40	Policy shifts
2012	9.80	~0.38	Renewable integration
2013	9.93	~0.35	Minor price increase
2014	10.20	~0.33	More renewables
2015	10.50	~0.30	Emissions down
2016	10.80	~0.28	Steady increase
2017	11.10	~0.25	Inflation impact
2018	11.40	~0.23	Renewable growth
2019	11.70	~0.20	Pre-Boardman closure
2020	12.00	~0.18	Boardman closure
2021	12.30	~0.15	Rapid renewable growth
2022	12.60	~0.13	4% price increase
2023	13.00	~0.10	Lower emissions
2024	16.52	~0.08	18% rate hike
2025	17.43	~0.05	5.5% increase

Note: Emissions estimates are based on trends and PGE’s targets; exact figures may vary.

Conclusion

The period from 2007 to 2025 marks a transformative era for PGE residential customers, with electricity costs rising from 8.19 to 17.43 cents per kWh and emissions dropping an order of magnitude from 0.5 to 0.05 pounds per kWh. Solar panels and home batteries like the Tesla Powerwall offer a compelling solution, providing cost savings, energy independence, environmental benefits, and resilience. As PGE continues its clean energy transition, homeowners can leverage these technologies to mitigate rising costs and contribute to a sustainable future. For detailed tariff information, visit PGE’s rate information, and for sustainability data, check out PGE’s sustainability page.

Referrals

If you're within 50 miles of SunPath's office in Beaverton, Oregon, I recommend getting a quote from them for your solar project. Also (after you have the quote) if you tell them you were referred by Patrick from CarsWithCords.net, you'll get $500 off and I'll receive a referral bonus.

If you're considering Tesla for your solar project, you can use my referral code (https://ts.la/patrick7819) for $500 off and I'll receive referral points for Tesla merch.

   

Ω

The Future is Autonomous

Image by Grok

The future is poised to be increasingly autonomous. 

Do you wash your clothes by hand? If you are reading this, you most likely use a washing machine. The automated washing machine relieves you of the burden and labor of washing bedding, clothes, and other items by hand. This frees you up to pursue other things. 

Now imagine a machine that automatically collects the dirty laundry, properly sorts items, applies a stain stick to that salsa spot on your favorite shirt, loads the washing machine, selects the correct settings, adds the right detergents and fabric softner, when the spin cycle is complete, it moves the load to the dryer, includes your preferred scent dryer sheet; when the dryer is done, it fold thems, and finally put thems away. Autonomy promises to make this happen.

The use of automated machines has significantly improved our quality of life by reducing manual labor, increasing efficiency, and freeing time for creative and intellectual pursuits. Autonomy is the next level in automation evolution. Autonomy builds on the transformative impact that automation has already had in reshaping humanity. Autonomy enables systems to make decisions and adapt to dynamic environments without requiring human intervention. This shift promises to revolutionize industries, enhance personal convenience, and address complex global challenges.

Before automation, tasks like laundry were grueling and time-consuming. In the early 1800s, washing clothes involved hauling water from wells or rivers, heating it over fires, and scrubbing garments by hand on washboards. This process often took an entire day and required significant physical effort. The introduction of the washing machine marked a turning point. Early machines were powered by hand cranks; yet still reduced physical strain. Later, with the addition of electric motors and automation, the washing, rinsing, and spin-dry processes could all occur in sequence without a person needing to turn a crank. This innovation saved hours of labor, allowing people to redirect time toward education, other work, or leisure. By 2020, over 80% of households in developed nations included washing machines, transforming domestic life. This is just one example and it underscores how automation alleviates repetitive, labor-intensive tasks.

           

Autonomy is the evolution of automation. It promises to significantly enhance our quality of life by intelligently managing tasks while addressing global challenges.

Apply this same autonomy evolution to washing dishes, grocery shopping, lawn care, and more. Automation has already revolutionized industries, from manufacturing to healthcare. Assembly lines, powered by robotic arms, produce goods with precision and speed, reducing costs and improving access to products like cars and electronics. In healthcare, automated diagnostic tools analyze medical images with accuracy rivaling human experts, enabling faster treatment. These advancements have raised living standards, with global poverty rates dropping from 36% in 1990 to under 10% in 2020, partly due to automation-driven economic growth.

Autonomy will bring a next wave industrial revolution.

Autonomy represents the next frontier, where systems not only perform tasks but also make intelligent decisions. Autonomous vehicles use sensors and AI to navigate roads. This will reduce human error, which causes over 90% of traffic incidents. By 2030, projections suggest autonomous cars could reduce road fatalities by up to 80% in urban areas. In logistics, autonomous drones and robots optimize delivery routes, cutting costs and emissions. In agriculture, self-driving tractors and AI-powered systems monitor soil, infestations, and crop health, boosting yields while minimizing water, fertilizer, and pesticide use. These advancements promise to address global challenges like food security and climate change, with autonomous systems adapting to real-time data in ways static automation cannot. 

Beyond industry, autonomy can enhance personal life. Smart homes autonomously regulate temperature by looking at weather predictions and your usage patterns, lighting, and security, improving comfort and energy efficiency. Virtual assistants, evolving into autonomous agents, manage schedules, suggest activities, and even anticipate needs based on user habits. This shift frees individuals from mundane tasks, much like the washing machine did, allowing more time for creativity, relationships, and personal growth.

The trajectory from labor-intensive laundry to automated washing machines to autonomous systems illustrates a clear trend: technology evolves to serve human needs more intelligently. Autonomy builds on the foundation of automation, promising a future where systems not only work for us but also make smart choices for us, enhancing efficiency, safety, and personal quality of life while addressing global issues.

Maximize Savings with Heat Pumps Before Federal Incentives Fade

On July 4, 2025, the One Big Beautiful Bill was signed into law. This legislation eliminates many rebates and tax credits for energy-efficient technologies, including solar panels, electric vehicles, and heat pumps. With these incentives disappearing, there's a narrowing window to adopt cost-saving, eco-friendly technologies, which are central to achieving energy efficiency and climate resilience.

Heat pumps are a cornerstone of modern energy efficiency. These systems work by transferring heat rather than generating it through combustion. They are ~50% more efficient than traditional heating methods like electric furnaces or baseboard heaters. They can be used heat and cool your home. To heat, they extract heat from the outside air and move it into your home. Even cold air has heat energy (on the Kelvin scale). Some cold-climate heat pumps can maintain effective operation down to -22°F (-30°C). To cool your home in the summer, they extract the heat from the warm are in your home and pump it outside. This is exactly the same way that modern AC units operate. 

The efficiency of heat pumps translates into substantial savings on utility bills, often offsetting the initial installation cost over time. Providing both heating and cooling makes them a versatile solution for the increasingly variable climate, where summers bring intense heat and winters can dip into freezing temperatures. Environmentally, they are a game-changer, producing significantly fewer greenhouse gas emissions than fossil fuel-based systems. 

For those concerned about extreme cold, a hybrid system pairing a heat pump with a high-efficiency furnace ensures reliable warmth year-round. In this setup, the heat pump handles heating during mild to moderately cold weather, operating at peak efficiency. When temperatures drop below the heat pump’s optimal range (typically 20-30°F, though newer models perform well in even lower temperatures), the high-efficiency furnace takes over. This combination minimizes furnace use, often reducing it to one-tenth of what it would be in a traditional system, slashing energy costs and extending the furnace’s lifespan. Hybrid systems offer the best of both worlds: the eco-friendly efficiency of a heat pump and the reliability of a furnace for the coldest days. This makes them an ideal choice for homeowners seeking to balance comfort, cost, and environmental impact.

The urgency to adopt heat pumps is heightened by the One Big Beautiful Bill’s impact. Federal incentives, which previously covered significant portions of heat pump installation costs (often up to $2,000 or more through tax credits), are being phased out, and many state-level rebates face funding uncertainty. You must act swiftly to capitalize on remaining incentives before they vanish.

To explore available opportunities, several resources provide comprehensive incentive information. The Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE), found at https://www.dsireusa.org/, is a leading platform detailing federal, state, and utility-specific rebates and tax credits for heat pumps and other energy-efficient technologies. The U.S. Department of Energy’s website (https://www.energy.gov/) offers guidance on federal programs and energy-saving tips, while Energy Star (https://www.energystar.gov/) helps users find certified heat pumps and locate local rebates. The Oregon Department of Energy’s website (https://www.oregon.gov/energy) provides updates on state initiatives, including those tied to the 2023 Climate Resilience package. Local utilities may also list regional incentives on their websites, often tailored to heat pump installations.

Move quickly and don't get left out in the cold.

20 Laps Around Earth

Tesla Model 3 driving around Earth by ChatGPT

Since 2007, our home has been powered by solar energy, starting with a modest 4 kW photovoltaic (PV) system. In 2011, we expanded our system by adding 8.3 kW of additional panels, bringing the total capacity to 12.3 kW. This system has been quietly generating clean energy for nearly two decades. Recently, we celebrated two significant milestones that highlight our impact.

We previously showed, on November 8th, 2024, our home solar system had generated enough energy to drive to the moon and back. We also shared one sunny day near the summer solstice, a glimpse of our system’s performance, and now we’re thrilled to dive into two new achievements, tying them to a 2018 Tesla Model 3 Dual Motor Long Range analogy.

On June 13, 2025, our solar panels reached a remarkable milestone: producing 144,405 kWh of energy since installation. This number is special because it represents enough energy to power a 2018 Tesla Model 3 to drive around Earth’s equator 20 times. The Earth’s equatorial circumference is approximately 24,901 miles, so 20 laps total 498,020 miles. Using an efficiency of 29 kWh per 100 miles, we calculate the energy required as follows: 498,020 miles ÷ 3.448 miles/kWh ≈ 144,405 kWh. For simplicity, this assumes 100% charging efficiency. Nearly half a million miles driven on clean solar energy from our roof is a testament to the power of just one residential solar roof.

2018 Tesla Model 3 LR: 

• 120 MPGe in the city
• 112 MPGe on the highway
• This translates to an estimated electricity consumption of 29 kWh per 100 miles

Just nine days later, on June 22, 2025, our PV system crossed another milestone, producing its 145,012th kWh. This amount pushed us past the equivalent of 500,000 miles driven by the same Tesla Model 3. The calculation is straightforward: 500,000 miles ÷ 3.448 miles/kWh ≈ 145,012 kWh. Reaching this half-million-mile mark feels like breaking the tape at a finish line, a symbolic victory for sustainable energy. 

Our small rooftop system, tucked away in a residential neighborhood, has been working tirelessly every day to generate clean power, contributing to a greener future. These milestones highlight the incredible potential of solar energy. From a 4 kW start to a 12.3 kW powerhouse, our system has offset significant carbon emissions, equivalent to driving a high-efficiency electric vehicle across vast solar system distances. The fact that one home’s solar array can produce enough energy to power a car for half a million miles underscores the scalability of renewable energy. It’s not just about numbers; it’s about the quiet, consistent work of a single rooftop reducing reliance on fossil fuels. I hope this inspires you to start or continue your own solar journey. One little roof, one sunny day at a time, can make a world of difference.

When You're in a Climate Hole, Stop Digging

From Oil Wells to Floodwaters: The Case for Climate Action #KeepItInTheGround's Mission to End the Fossil Fuel Crisis

  

Key Points

• Fossil fuel extraction, such as coal mining and oil drilling, contributes to climate change, which may increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, like the recent Texas floods in July 2025.
• Stopping fossil fuel extraction, as advocated by movements like #keepitintheground, will help mitigate climate impacts, though the transition involves complex economic and social challenges.
• The @FFfFossilFuels account advocates for a safe end to fossil fuel use.

Recent Texas Floods and Climate Connection

In July 2025, Texas faced catastrophic flooding, particularly in the Hill Country, with over 100 deaths and many missing, as reported by multiple sources. This event, driven by heavy rainfall from a stalled storm system, aligns with research suggesting climate change, fueled by fossil fuel emissions, intensifies extreme weather events like floods. Evidence suggests that warmer temperatures hold more moisture, leading to heavier precipitation and increased risk of flash floods, as noted in the Wikipedia article on the July 2025 Central Texas floods.

Fossil Fuels and Environmental Impact

Fossil fuels, including coal, oil, and methane gas, supply about 80% of global energy, but their extraction and burning release greenhouse gases, contributing to global warming. The United Nations and National Geographic highlight that these emissions trap heat, altering weather patterns and increasing flood risks. The EESI fact sheet estimates the cost of such weather events in the US at $606.9 billion between 2016 and 2020, underscoring the economic impact.

The #keepitintheground Movement

The #keepitintheground hashtag, seen in campaigns like keepitintheground.org and The Guardian, calls for halting new fossil fuel extraction to combat climate change. It serves as a rallying cry for leaving coal, oil, and gas unextracted, supported by science suggesting we must limit warming to safe levels, as per Nature’s findings.

A Comprehensive Analysis of Fossil Fuels, Climate Change, and Recent Environmental Disasters

Introduction

This report explores the environmental implications of fossil fuel extraction, particularly in light of the recent catastrophic floods in Texas in July 2025, and examines related movements like #keepitintheground and the @FFfFossilFuels account. Drawing from extensive research, this analysis aims to provide a detailed understanding of the connections between fossil fuels, climate change, and extreme weather events, while addressing advocacy efforts to mitigate these impacts.

Background on Recent Texas Floods

On July 3, 2025, a stalled storm system, linked to the remnant circulation of Atlantic Tropical Storm Barry, caused heavy rains over Central Texas, leading to deadly flooding from July 4 to July 7, especially along the Guadalupe River. According to The New York Times, at least 111 people died, with the death toll potentially rising as 173 remained missing by July 9, 2025. ABC News reported 120 deaths, with Kerr County hardest hit, recording 95 fatalities, including 36 children. NPR noted the Guadalupe River rose 26 feet within 45 minutes, highlighting the rapid onset of flash floods. The Guardian suggested these floods could signal a new norm, exacerbated by climate change, with experts warning of worsening weather disasters.

San Antonio’s rainfall intensity increased by 6% since 1970 and Austin’s by 19%, meaning more rain falls in a given hour than decades ago. This aligns with research from Climate Central, indicating a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, contributing to heavier precipitation events.

The Role of Fossil Fuels in Climate Change

Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural gas, are the primary energy sources, supplying about 80% of global energy, as per National Geographic. However, their extraction and combustion release significant greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide, accounting for over 75% of global emissions, according to the United Nations. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), cited by ClientEarth, found that 89% of global CO2 emissions in 2018 came from fossil fuels and industry, making them the dominant cause of global warming.

Burning fossil fuels traps heat in the atmosphere, leading to rising temperatures that alter weather patterns. The EESI fact sheet details climate externalities, including extreme weather events like flooding, costing the US $606.9 billion between 2016 and 2020. Amnesty International notes that 2023 saw record rainfall causing deadly flooding in Europe and China, linking these events to fossil fuel emissions. The Washington Post emphasizes that continued fossil fuel use risks missing the 1.5°C warming limit, exacerbating such disasters.

A study in Nature suggests that to limit warming to 1.5°C, nearly 60% of oil and fossil methane gas, and 90% of coal, must remain unextracted by 2050, highlighting the urgency of reducing fossil fuel reliance. 

The #keepitintheground Movement

The #keepitintheground hashtag emerged as a call to action against fossil fuel extraction, advocating for leaving these resources unexploited to mitigate climate change. Keepitintheground.org states, “The science is settled. There can be no new pipelines, no new permits, no new exploration, and no more excuses,” emphasizing the need to halt new fossil fuel development. The Guardian features a series on climate change and fossil fuel divestment, aligning with this movement.

Keep It in the Ground blog notes, “Science has spoken: the path to a sustainable future for people, wildlife and the planet does not include fossil fuels,” urging action to avoid the worst climate impacts. Intercontinental Cry, a media platform dedicated to amplifying the voices and stories of Indigenous peoples worldwide, collaborates with the Indigenous Environmental Network on #keepitintheground, focusing on journalistic efforts to highlight the issue. This movement is supported by findings like those in Nature, suggesting significant unextractable fossil fuels to meet climate goals.

The @FFfFossilFuels Account and Broader Advocacy

The @FFfFossilFuels account supports campaigns like “Global Fight to End Fossil Fuels” and “Stop Fossil Fuels,” which demand government action to phase out fossil fuels. These efforts align with the #keepitintheground movement, advocating for a transition to renewable energy. 

Discussion and Implications

The recent Texas floods, with their devastating impact, underscore the urgency of addressing fossil fuel extraction. The connection between these events and climate change, driven by burning fossil fuels, is supported by multiple sources, including UNEP and EESI. The #keepitintheground movement and accounts like @FFfFossilFuels represent critical advocacy, but the transition involves economic challenges, as noted by The Washington Post, with communities dependent on fossil fuel industries needing support.

Conclusion

The evidence points to fossil fuel extraction deepening environmental crises like the Texas floods, necessitating action like that promoted by #keepitintheground and @FFfFossilFuels. This report highlights the need for a balanced approach, considering both environmental and social dimensions of phasing out fossil fuel usage, to forge a sustainable future.

Detailed Data Table: Impact of Fossil Fuels and Climate Change

Aspect	Details
Global Energy Supply	Fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) account for about 80% of energy, per National Geographic
Greenhouse Gas Emissions	Over 75% of global emissions from fossil fuels, per United Nations
Climate Impact	Leads to global warming, altering weather patterns, increasing flood risks, per EESI
Economic Cost (2016-2020)	$606.9 billion in US for extreme weather events, including flooding, per EESI
Unextractable Reserves	60% oil, 90% coal must remain unextracted by 2050 for 1.5°C limit, per Nature

Impacts of the Fossil Fuel Big Beautiful Bill on Energy Systems and Our Future

Grid Stability

Grid stability requires matching electricity supply with demand using reliable, flexible sources. The One Big Beautiful Bill’s (OBBB) emphasis on fossil fuels makes the grid vulnerable to long-term exposures to fuel price swings or supply issues. It also diverts funding from modern solutions like battery storage or smart grids, which are crucial for adapting to extreme weather and changing demand patterns. Without these advancements, the grid could face inefficiencies or outages.

Renewable Energy Growth

OBBB will slow the rise of renewable energy. By favoring fossil fuels with subsidies and deregulation, it may pull resources away from solar, wind, and other clean energy options. Cuts to renewable tax credits, which have spurred jobs and investment, would make these sources less competitive. Additionally, easing environmental rules could let fossil fuels dominate markets, stalling the shift to sustainable energy, especially in areas still building clean infrastructure.

CO2 Emissions

OBBB’s fossil fuel focus would likely drive up CO2 emissions. Fossil fuels are a major source of greenhouse gases, and expanding their use would increase emissions significantly. Even with technologies like carbon capture, which aren’t effective, this approach clashes with climate goals. It could lock in high-carbon systems for years, worsening global warming and its impacts, like severe weather. Fossil fuels externalities will still exists, they just won't have to pay them, we all will with our health and well-being.

Interaction with Growing Energy Needs

Data centers, vital to the growing digital economy. They demand more energy for computing and cooling. OBBB’s fossil fuel push might initially meet this need with increased generation. Yet, many tech companies prefer renewables for sustainability and cost stability. By neglecting clean energy, OBBB could force reliance on high-carbon sources, raising costs and emissions. Without efficiency upgrades or grid improvements, it may fail to keep pace with demand, risking shortages.

Batteries and Peaker Plants

Peaker plant generators, used to supply extra power during peak demand, are among the dirtiest sources on the grid, often burning fossil fuels like natural gas or, even worse, diesel. This leads to higher emissions and air pollution per kWh. A cleaner alternative is renewables and battery storage. Batteries store excess energy from renewables, such as solar or wind, and release it when demand spikes, reducing reliance on peaker plants. Batteries also offer fast response times, adjusting quickly to demand shifts to maintain grid stability and prevent disruptions. Paired with renewables, batteries enhance grid performance, cut emissions, and support a sustainable energy future.

Conclusion

The One Big Beautiful Bill should really be called the Big Fossil Fuel Bill. Its fossil fuel-heavy strategy risks stifling renewable growth and locking in years of increased CO2 emissions. The strategy it promotes could struggle to meet the growing needs of datacenters. Integrating batteries and renewables offers a cleaner, more resilient path forward and will eventually be the winning solution. The OFFB is just one more chance for the fossil fuel industry to cling to the status quo and continue to extract from the Earth, while extracting cash from our pockets; all while choking us.

Tesla 2025 Production Q2 Update

Each year, we attempt to estimate Tesla's annual vehicle production. Now that 2025 is about half over, let's see how our 2025 prediction is stacking up.

In this article, we came up with several estimates ranging from 1.7 million to 2.08 million vehicles produced for 2025 (note we're only looking at production, not deliveries, but they're closely related). We settled on 1.9 million as our 2025 estimate. Let's see if this is on track.

Tesla’s vehicle production and deliveries in the first half of 2025 highlight a year of economic pressures and a major refresh of Tesla's most popular vehicle. In Q1 2025, Tesla produced 362,615 vehicles, a 16% year-over-year (YoY) drop from Q1 2024’s 433,371 production. Q2’25 saw production increase to 410,244 vehicles, that’s nearly identical to Q2'24’s 410,831. After Q1'25’s weak results, it’s great to see a quarter that’s not a year-over-year drop.

First-half 2025 production totaled 772,859 vehicles, trailing 2024’s first-half production of 844,201. Model 3/Y dominated with 742,289 units (95% of production), while Cybertruck, Model S/X, and Semi added 30,570 units. Production outpaced deliveries, creating a ~52,000-unit inventory surplus, signaling demand challenges.

For Q3 2025, I estimate production at 410,000 vehicles, driven by the Model Y refresh and a significant Cybertruck price reduction. One factor in this estimate is the inventory surplus. Unlike Q2, I expect to see deliveries above production in Q3. For Q4 2025, an estimate of 450,000 vehicles reflects cautious optimism, factoring in seasonal strength but tempered. These figures suggest a full-year 2025 production of ~1.63 million vehicles (772,859 + 410,000 est + 450,000 est). This would make 2025 Tesla's 3rd-best year. 2025 would be down 7% from last year’s 1,773,443 and 13% below 2023’s all-time high of 1,845,985.

Tesla’s production trend shows strong growth from 2020 (509,737) to 2023, fueled by Model 3/Y, but 2024’s dip and 2025’s mostly flat to-date result indicate a slower recovery trajectory. Musk’s 20-30% growth target is unlikely until a lower-cost vehicle emerges that opens a new market segment. Crossing the 2 million vehicle milestone in 2025 is off the table given current trends, but a 2H'25 Redwood unveiling and production start could make it feasible in 2026.

The anticipated Redwood (the more affordable “Model 2”) unveiling did not occur in H1 2025, casting doubt on a 2025 release. Redwood is aimed at competing with low-cost EVs like BYD’s offerings. It's critical for Tesla’s growth in price-sensitive markets. Delays may stem from production retooling or strategic shifts, potentially pushing high-volume output of Cybercab and Redwood to 2026. Without Redwood, Tesla’s 2025 growth relies on existing models, limiting its ability to hit the 2 million milestone. A late-2025 Redwood pilot run could boost Q4 output, but a significant impact is more likely in 2026, potentially enabling Tesla to (finally) surpass 2 million vehicles annually.

Quarter	Production	Deliveries
Q1 2025	362,615	336,681
Q2 2025	410,244	384,122
Q3 2025	410,000*	-
Q4 2025	450,000*	-

*Estimated

UPDATE: now that the OBBB has passed, the EV tax credit will be terminated on Sept 30, 2025. This will pull some demand from Q4 into Q3 as US buyers rush to buy before the tax credit vanishes. This is not likely to have a significant impact on the global total for the year.

Electric Vehicles: The Inevitable Future of Transportation

Image by OpenAI

Legacy automakers want the US Congress to stop California's plan to greatly restrict the sale of gas-only cars by 2035. Eleven other states follow California's emission plan, including New York, Massachusetts, and Oregon. Together, these 12 states account for approximately 40% of the US new vehicle market.

In May, the US House of Representatives voted to cancel the special Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) permission given to California by all previous administrations (Republican or Democrat). Without this permission, vehicles in these states would only be required to follow the (much more relaxed) federal emissions standards. On June 12th, President Donald Trump signed the resolutions that revoked the EPA waiver for three California vehicle emissions rules. 

Hours later, California's Governor said the state would sue for the right to regulate its own air quality and would double down on its efforts to transition away from fossil fuels. The Governor went on to say this move by Congress and the Trump administration will “Make America Smoggy Again.”

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, representing companies like GM, Toyota, and Volkswagen, claims that complying with the California mandate will cause financial hardship for the automakers. They said that to comply with the rule, automakers will have to reduce the total number of cars they sell to inflate the share of EVs. They don't seem to understand that increasing EV sales is the better option. This is especially ironic that this "innovation" alliance is arguing for the status quo to continue even into 2035. Perhaps they should consider renaming themselves The Alliance of Luddite Automakers.

EVs are poised to dominate the future of personal transportation, driven by declining battery costs, technological advancements, environmental imperatives, and shifting consumer preferences. Charging infrastructure is expanding rapidly, with over 170,000 public chargers in the US as of 2025. Battery costs have dropped over 80% since 2010. This has improved EV range while making them more affordable (and more profitable). By 2035, battery costs will (again) decline significantly, and EVs will be more profitable than gas-powered vehicles. 

EVs offer superior performance, lower maintenance costs, and zero tailpipe emissions, aligning with global efforts to combat climate change. Governments worldwide are setting ambitious targets, with the EU aiming for all new cars to be zero-emission by 2035. Consumer demand is surging, as evidenced by EVs accounting for 9.5% of US vehicle sales in 2024, up from 3.2% in 2020. These trends signal that EVs are not a niche but the future of mobility.

US legacy automakers risk falling behind if they resist this transition. By lobbying to delay California’s 2035 EV plan, companies like GM and Ford threaten to cede ground to EV-only brands such as Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid. These newer players are fully committed to electrification, with Tesla alone commanding over 50% of the US EV market in 2024. Rivian and Lucid are gaining traction with premium electric trucks and luxury sedans. If legacy automakers slow their EV investments, they will struggle to compete with these agile, EV-focused brands that are capturing market share and consumer loyalty.

Meanwhile, Chinese automakers are accelerating their EV ambitions, posing a long-term threat. Companies like BYD and NIO are making significant inroads in Australia and Europe, with BYD’s affordable Atto 3 SUV becoming a top seller in Australia. China is the world’s largest EV market, with over 50% of global EV sales in 2024. Chinese firms are investing heavily in innovation. They are not lobbying to slow progress. They are producing cost-competitive models with advanced features. By 2035, Chinese brands are likely to enter the US market (even if that means buying out US brands to gain a foothold). If US automakers stay on the Luddite path, they will not be prepared to face the fierce competition from these global players.

Even if the current US administration supports delaying EV mandates, this will not ensure the competitiveness of legacy automakers. Short-term policy reversals cannot halt the global shift toward electrification. Delaying EV adoption risks leaving US companies unprepared for a future where EVs dominate. To remain competitive by 2035, US automakers must embrace the EV revolution right now and invest in innovation, rather than using political obstructionism to cling to outdated technologies.

The US has a storied history with automotive innovation, and companies like Tesla, Rivian, and Lucid are now leading the charge in the EV revolution, showcasing American ingenuity on a global stage. These homegrown brands have set benchmarks for performance and sustainability, with Tesla’s market dominance and Rivian’s rugged electric trucks capturing the nation’s imagination. Meanwhile, legacy automakers like GM and Ford are steadily adapting, contributing to the EV landscape with models like the Chevrolet Equinox EV and F-150 Lightning, even if they’ve been slower to pivot. The presence of Chinese EV brands like BYD and NIO in the US market underscores global competition, yet American innovation continues to shine.

This July 4th, as families gather for barbecues and fireworks, the most patriotic thing our politicians could do is to support American-made innovation, put the US on track to be globally competitive, and stop trying to drag our energy policy back to 1950.

Summer Solstice 2025

Image via Tesla

In the northern hemisphere, the summer solstice occurred on June 20th this year. It unleashed a sun-soaked bonanza of free energy for folks with solar panels glinting in the sunshine on their roofs. Those sleek photovoltaic babies soak up rays and churn out the kilowatt-hours right where you need them. This slashes those pesky transmission losses that nibble away 5-10% of grid power like a sneaky snack thief. With solar, your roof becomes a mini power plant, fueling your home with clean, sun-kissed juice.

Pair your solar with a home battery, like the Tesla Powerwall, and you’re the superhero of the cul-de-sac. You can laugh off blackouts while your neighbors fumble for flashlights. Summer’s here, and with it come those long sweltering days when air conditioners hum like a buzzing swarm of caffeinated bees, working overtime to keep your home cool, stressing the grid to the brink. Solar panels swoop in like a cool breeze, powering your AC and easing the grid’s sweaty burden, helping keep the lights on citywide.

Got an electric vehicle? Charge it with sunshine! Tesla’s Charge-on-Solar feature lets you juice up your EV straight from your rooftop rays, turning your Tesla into a sun-powered chariot. You can zip past gas stations, grinning as your car runs on free solar swagger. If your panels are pumping out more juice than your home and EV can gulp, the excess spills onto the grid, powering your neighbor’s Netflix binge. Net metering can score you credits, shrinking your electricity bill faster than a popsicle in July. And if your utility has VPP events, you can even get a fat check.

Solar has never been cheaper, with costs plummeting more than 50% over the last decade. A 6-kilowatt system runs $10,000-$15,000 before a juicy 30% federal tax credit (which may not be around for much longer). Financing means you can start saving with pocket change upfront, and your electric bill savings often outpaces the loan payments. Systems can pay for themselves in 5-10 years. Then, once they are paid off, it gets even better. Electricity rates might keep climbing, but you won't care.

Rooftop solar isn’t just smart; it’s your ticket to a cooler, greener, and brighter future.

One Sunny Day

Here's our solar data from a few days ago. You can see by the color where the solar energy was directed. The first thing to note is that production started at 6AM and finished at 8PM. That's 14 hours of production, peaking around noon at 8.3kW. 

You can see that the early morning energy went into the battery. Then at 7AM, when the higher Time-of-Day rates started, the solar was redirected to run our home (shown in blue). Any energy beyond the home's need was directed into our EV (red). By 10AM, the car was charged, then the Powerwall (green) soaked up the extra juice. Before noon, the Powerwall was full; then the surplus solar flowed into the grid (grey), running our meter backward and powering other homes on our block.

You can see the large spikes of blue in the afternoon; this was the AC cycling.

We have many more net-positive days like this one ahead of us.

Disclosure: I am long Tesla

PGE VPP :: Smart Battery

Smart battery image by ChatGPT

Portland General Electric (PGE) started their Virtual Power Plant (VPP) pilot (called SmartBattery) in the fall of 2020. We were among the first to sign up for the program. This 5-year pilot program is coming to an end soon, so what happens next?

The pilot (unsurprisingly) hit a few start-up snags in the beginning. However, that is the point of a pilot (find out what you don't know on a small scale, learn, adapt, then deploy on a larger scale). The good news is that PGE learned lessons and made changes. In one case, I know they made a change specifically based on my data, as evidenced by an email they sent specifically to me stating that they were improving support for "super users" based on my system specs and usage. 

They have also made changes to the method to determine participant payment amounts. Initially, PGE used a system similar to the Smart Thermostat program. You were paid $20 for each month that you were enrolled, regardless of participation. This has obvious issues: someone who participated in five events in a month would be paid the same amount as someone who participated in only one, and this does not account for the level of participation in each event (during an event, did you send 1 kWh or 50 kWh?). Obviously, the incentive needed to align with the value provided, and PGE changed the participation payments accordingly.

What's Next?

This was a 5-year pilot, and it is coming to an end in September. Approximately 450 households are participating, and we want to know what's going to happen when this pilot ends. The good news is that PGE wants to continue the program and move it from pilot phase to a full-fledged program. 

The proposal for the new SmartBattery program must be approved by state regulators and CUB. I don't expect anyone to oppose this program; it's a win-win for the utility and participants: it helps stabilize the grid, and reduces CO2 emissions, while paying participants.

Benefits of VPPs

VPPs integrate distributed energy resources like solar panels, batteries, and demand response systems into a cohesive network. They optimize energy distribution, enhancing grid reliability and efficiency. By aggregating small-scale energy sources, VPPs provide utilities with flexible, cost-effective alternatives to peaker plants, reducing reliance on fossil fuels. 

VPPs enable real-time energy management, balancing supply and demand to prevent outages during peak demand hours. VPPs also lower energy costs for consumers by prioritizing cheaper, renewable sources and reducing transmission losses, rather than firing up the most expensive and dirtiest sources available. 

VPPs also enhance energy resilience, allowing communities to maintain power during outages by leveraging localized resources. They are the first step to the internet of energy, supporting grid modernization, and integrating smart technologies for better forecasting and control. Additionally, VPPs create economic opportunities by enabling participants to earn incentives for sharing energy. As renewable energy adoption grows, VPPs will play a critical role in building sustainable, decentralized energy systems, ensuring affordability, reliability, and environmental benefits for all.