Each year, we attempt to estimate Tesla's annual vehicle production. Now that 2025 is about half over, let's see how our 2025 prediction is stacking up.
In this article, we came up with several estimates ranging from 1.7 million to 2.08 million vehicles produced for 2025 (note we're only looking at production, not deliveries, but they're closely related). We settled on 1.9 million as our 2025 estimate. Let's see if this is on track.
Tesla’s vehicle production and deliveries in the first half of 2025 highlight a year of economic pressures and a major refresh of Tesla's most popular vehicle. In Q1 2025, Tesla produced 362,615 vehicles, a 16% year-over-year (YoY) drop from Q1 2024’s 433,371 production. Q2’25 saw production increase to 410,244 vehicles, that’s nearly identical to Q2'24’s 410,831. After Q1'25’s weak results, it’s great to see a quarter that’s not a year-over-year drop.
First-half 2025 production totaled 772,859 vehicles, trailing 2024’s first-half production of 844,201. Model 3/Y dominated with 742,289 units (95% of production), while Cybertruck, Model S/X, and Semi added 30,570 units. Production outpaced deliveries, creating a ~52,000-unit inventory surplus, signaling demand challenges.
For Q3 2025, I estimate production at 410,000 vehicles, driven by the Model Y refresh and a significant Cybertruck price reduction. One factor in this estimate is the inventory surplus. Unlike Q2, I expect to see deliveries above production in Q3. For Q4 2025, an estimate of 450,000 vehicles reflects cautious optimism, factoring in seasonal strength but tempered. These figures suggest a full-year 2025 production of ~1.63 million vehicles (772,859 + 410,000 est + 450,000 est). This would make 2025 Tesla's 3rd-best year. 2025 would be down 7% from last year’s 1,773,443 and 13% below 2023’s all-time high of 1,845,985.
Tesla’s production trend shows strong growth from 2020 (509,737) to 2023, fueled by Model 3/Y, but 2024’s dip and 2025’s mostly flat to-date result indicate a slower recovery trajectory. Musk’s 20-30% growth target is unlikely until a lower-cost vehicle emerges that opens a new market segment. Crossing the 2 million vehicle milestone in 2025 is off the table given current trends, but a 2H'25 Redwood unveiling and production start could make it feasible in 2026.
The anticipated Redwood (the more affordable “Model 2”) unveiling did not occur in H1 2025, casting doubt on a 2025 release. Redwood is aimed at competing with low-cost EVs like BYD’s offerings. It's critical for Tesla’s growth in price-sensitive markets. Delays may stem from production retooling or strategic shifts, potentially pushing high-volume output of Cybercab and Redwood to 2026. Without Redwood, Tesla’s 2025 growth relies on existing models, limiting its ability to hit the 2 million milestone. A late-2025 Redwood pilot run could boost Q4 output, but a significant impact is more likely in 2026, potentially enabling Tesla to (finally) surpass 2 million vehicles annually.
Quarter | Production | Deliveries |
---|---|---|
Q1 2025 | 362,615 | 336,681 |
Q2 2025 | 410,244 | 384,122 |
Q3 2025 | 410,000* | - |
Q4 2025 | 450,000* | - |
*Estimated