Solar Growing 7X Faster Than Nuclear Ever Did

The Great Decarbonization Derby

Energy transitions usually move with the perceived speed of a tectonic plate. For decades, the energy community treated the French Messmer Plan as a gold standard. This program transformed the French grid in the 1970s and 1980s. It was a massive, state-led achievement. However, a funny thing happened on the way to the 21st century. Solar and wind power started a full sprint. They did not just start running; they started lapping the previous records. We are witnessing a shift in power generation that makes historical nuclear buildouts look stationary. This is not just a change in machinery. It is a fundamental shift in how quickly humanity can reorganize the planetary power grid. While the nuclear age relied on centralized and slow-moving projects, the current era thrives on modularity and speed.

Atomic Ambitions of the Ancient Eighties

To understand our trajectory, we must look at the history books. In the 1970s, France decided to divorce itself from oil. This was the famous Messmer Plan. Between 1977 and 1990, France added roughly 20 to 30 TWh of new nuclear generation every single year. For a single nation, this was an incredible feat of engineering. Sweden followed a similar path. During its primary buildout, Sweden added roughly 5 to 10 TWh per year. These programs were successful because they were standardized. They used the same designs repeatedly. Even with that efficiency, the projects were slow. Building a nuclear reactor is a massive undertaking. It requires specialized steel and complex regulatory oversight. It also requires a decade of patience. These were the historical benchmarks. They set the bar high. However, modern renewables are now clearing that bar by a wide margin on a global scale.

The Global Scale of the Solar Surge

The numbers from 2024 are truly staggering. Global wind generation reached 2,494 TWh. This was an increase of 182 TWh from the previous year. Solar power performed even better. It added a record 474 TWh in a single year. Together, these two sources added 656 TWh of new annual generation in just 12 months. This is actual electricity produced and sent to the grid. It is not just nameplate capacity. When we look at global history, the contrast is sharp. Even at the height of the global nuclear expansion in the mid 1980s, the world was only adding about 200 TWh of nuclear generation annually. The peak year for global nuclear additions was 1984, when the world added roughly 207 TWh. Today, wind and solar are expanding over 3 times faster than nuclear ever did at its global peak. If we compare modern global renewable growth to the specific French peak, the scale is even more lopsided. We are adding energy at a rate 20 to 30 times faster than the fastest national nuclear programs.

Manufacturing Momentum and Modular Magic

The primary reason for this speed is modularity. A nuclear plant is a custom and artisanal cathedral of concrete. A solar farm is a collection of identical panels. You can build a solar farm in weeks. You can build a wind farm in months. If a project runs into a problem, it only affects that specific project. In the nuclear world, a single supply chain hiccup can delay a $10,000,000,000 project for years. Renewables benefit from the same manufacturing logic that gave us smartphones. They get cheaper and faster as you make more of them. This is the power of the assembly line versus the power of the megaproject. Every year, we get better at making panels. Every year, we get better at installing them. This creates a feedback loop of efficiency. It is a quiet revolution happening in factories and on rooftops.

Metric	France Nuclear Peak	Global Nuclear Peak (1984)	Global Renewables (2024)
Generation  Added	20 to 30 TWh	207 TWh	656 TWh
Construction   Time	6 to 15 years	6 to 15 years	2 months to 2 years
Scalability	National	Global	Global
Relative  Speed  Factor	1x (Baseline)	7x to 10x	20x to 30x

Dollars, Decisions, and Deployment

Money talks. In the energy world, it screams. The cost of renewable energy has plummeted. Solar and wind are now the cheapest sources of new electricity in most of the world. Levelized costs for solar have dropped by nearly 90% over the last decade. Meanwhile, nuclear costs have remained flat or have even increased. In the US, the Vogtle nuclear project in Georgia became a cautionary tale. It cost over $30,000,000,000. It took over a decade to finish. For that same amount of money, a developer could have built enough solar and storage to power several states. This economic reality drives the speed of the transition. Investors prefer projects with fast returns. A solar farm starts making money in months. A nuclear plant starts making money in a decade if you are lucky. This financial friction makes nuclear a tough sell for private capital. Renewables, however, are a magnet for investment.

Balancing the Base Load Blues

Critics often point to the intermittency of wind and solar. They argue that nuclear provides reliable base load power. This is true. Atomic energy plants run 24 hours a day. Solar panels do not work at night. However, the energy landscape is changing. Battery storage is now following the same growth curve as solar. In 2025, battery costs continued to fall. Global battery capacity is expanding at an exponential rate. When you combine solar with storage, the intermittency argument starts to lose its teeth. Grid operators are also getting better at managing diverse energy sources. They use weather forecasting and demand response. The goal is no longer to have one giant base load plant. The goal is to have a flexible and resilient network. Nuclear power is difficult to ramp up and down. In a world with lots of cheap solar, this lack of flexibility is a disadvantage.

The Science of Speed

Research from ScienceDirect in 2018 suggests that deployment rates matter more than energy density. The paper titled "Relative deployment rates of renewable and nuclear power" highlights this very point. It is a cautionary tale of two metrics. You can have a very dense energy source like uranium. However, if you cannot build the plants fast enough, the density does not help you in a race against time. The study found that renewables can be scaled much faster because of their smaller unit size. This modularity allows for simultaneous construction across thousands of sites. Nuclear requires a specialized workforce that is in short supply. You cannot just train ten thousand nuclear engineers overnight. You can, however, train ten thousand solar installers in a few months. This human capital advantage is a major driver of the 2024 numbers.

The Global Grid of Tomorrow

The data is clear. We are not just making progress. We are making progress at a pace that was previously unthinkable. The comparison to the global nuclear peak shows that our target is within reach. We are adding more carbon-free energy every year than the entire nuclear industry added in its best decade. This shift is driven by economics and manufacturing efficiency. It is also driven by a global realization that the old way of building power is too slow. The cautionary tale mentioned in academic circles is simple. If we rely solely on slow technologies, we will not meet our targets. We need tools that can scale today. Wind and solar are those tools. They are the workhorses of the modern energy transition. They are cheaper and more scalable than any alternative.

Finishing the Fossil-Free Feud

In the end, the winner of the speed contest is obvious. Renewables have claimed the crown. They have proven that they can be deployed at a scale that dwarfs the nuclear efforts of the 20th century. This does not mean nuclear has no role to play. It does mean it is no longer the primary driver of decarbonization. The sheer velocity of wind and solar growth provides a genuine reason for optimism. We are building the infrastructure of the future in real time. We are replacing old systems with sleek and modular technology. This rapid buildout moves us closer to a future free from fossil fuels. It is a future built on the logic of clean power quickly rather than budget-busting megaprojects. 

Electrifying Oregon’s Big Rigs: Why It Matters and Where It Actually Works

Introduction

Oregon loves to lead on climate, and the medium- and heavy-duty fleet is the next obvious target. These trucks, buses, and vans spew roughly 64% of the state's on-road particulate matter and a hefty chunk of NOx, all while guzzling diesel that makes transportation the biggest GHG slice in the state's pie. Swapping these diesel rigs for battery-electric versions would have a massive impact. This is not some distant dream; for many segments, it is happening right now. The environmental payoff is monster-sized, the dollars-and-cents work, and the asthma-prevention bonus is almost too good to be true.

Fruit Within Reach: No Ladder Required

Not every eighteen-wheeler can go electric tomorrow. If you drive something that has to cross three states every week, then the battery tech still needs a couple of iterations. For the local vehicles, the tech is ready now. Table 1 shows the segments ripe for rapid electrification and the payoff.

Segment	How Many in Oregon?	Tailpipe PM/NOx Cut	Typical Payback After Incentives	Extra Perks
School buses	~7000	100%	5-7 years	Kids breathe easier
Garbage & Recycling trucks	~3000	100%	6-8 years	No 5 a.m. diesel roar
Transit buses	~1500	100%	7-9 years	Drivers actually smile

Benefit #2: Money That Stays in Oregon Pockets

Electricity in Oregon costs fleets roughly $0.10-$0.18 per mile at commercial rates, sometimes half that with off-peak or utility make-ready programs. Diesel, even at today's subsidized rate, at $4.50/gallon, runs $1.20-$1.80 per mile once you add DEF and downtime. Oregon's own grants (OZEF, Clean School Bus rebates, utility make-ready programs) plus remaining state and local incentives still knock years off payback. Many garbage truck fleets and transit fleets are already hitting positive total cost of ownership in less than six years, and school districts that locked in cheap commercial rates are saving $120,000-$180,000 USD per bus over its lifespan.

Benefit #3: Noise, Drivers, and Bragging Rights

With library-quiet grace, electric trucks cruise neighborhood streets. Garbage collection at 5 a.m. no longer sounds like a monster truck rally. Transit agencies report driver applications jumping after they roll out battery buses; who knew smooth silence was a recruiting tool? Plus, Oregon gets to brag that its grid is 65% hydro and growing windier by the year, so the "well-to-wheel" emissions argument barely exists here.

Let the Tall Branches Ripen

Long-haul sleeper cabs and heavy dump trucks will stay diesel for a while longer. Battery weight steals payload, megawatt charging stations are still rare, and upgrading a single depot can cost more than a suburban substation. Those hurdles are real, but they do not block the 30-40% of the fleet that never leaves the metro area and never crosses the Cascades. With another generation or two of battery development and infrastructure deployment, those harder-to-electrify segments like long-haul will be electrified too. Waiting for the perfect solution for all vehicles is a fool's errand when important progress can be made right now.

Conclusion

Oregon does not need to electrify every single big rig by next Thursday to see transformative benefits. Focus on school buses that idle outside of classrooms, on garbage trucks that wake half of Eugene, and on delivery vans that circle Portland suburbs 200 times a day. Doing this captures most of the health gains, most of the climate progress, and a surprising amount of cold, hard cash. The technology exists, state and utility incentives remain strong (even as federal support wanes), and the grid is ready. All that remains is keeping the pedal down on the segments that make sense today. Do that, and Oregon moves meaningfully closer to a future free from fossil fuels, one quiet, zero-emission mile at a time.

Tesla 2026 Production

Tracking the Tesla Trajectory

We've been tracking Tesla vehicle production since 2017. It's a hobby that requires a certain level of statistical masochism. You've gotta love spreadsheets. You have to love the smell of lithium in the morning. Back then, the Model 3 was just a dream on a messy production floor. Tesla produced 103,097 vehicles in 2017. Most of those were Model S and Model X units. The world was skeptical. People called it a niche luxury project. They were wrong. Over the last nine years, we've seen a transformation. The company moved from making toys for the elite to making tools for the masses. This transition is documented in every cell of our data. We're looking at a journey from six figures to seven. The current obsession is the eight-figure horizon. But first, we have to talk about the 2 million unit milestone. It has been just out of reach for several years. For the last few years, it's been the Moby Dick of the Tesla community.

 

The Historic Heave of Hardware

The history is impressive. Tesla's production history is like a teenager's growth spurt. One year they're small and quiet. The next year they've grown six inches and they're eating everything in the fridge. The jump from 2017 to 2018 was legendary. Production rose to 245,240 units. That was the year the Model 3 finally started moving. In 2019, they reached 365,194 units. That was a 49% increase. Then 2020 happened. While the rest of the world was shutting down, Tesla was ramping up. They hit 509,737 units. This was a 40% growth in a year of global chaos. It proved their resilience. But 2021 was the real fireworks show. They produced 930,422 vehicles. That's a growth of 83%. We were all doing the math in our heads. If they grow at 50%+ again, they'll hit 1.4 million or more next year. They almost did. 2022 saw 1,369,611 units. That's a 47% growth rate. The pace was breathtaking. We started talking about 2 million as if it were a foregone conclusion for 2023.

 

The Persistent Plateau of Production

2023 was supposed to be the year. The factories in Austin and Berlin were supposed to be at full speed. The result was 1,845,985 vehicles. It was a 35% growth rate. It was a massive achievement. Yet, there was a sense of missing the mark. They were less than 160,000 units away. It felt like they could have found those units under a couch cushion. But production is a game of precision. You can't just wish for more deliveries. You need orders. Since that peak, the curve has flattened. In 2024, production actually dipped. The final tally was 1,773,443 units. That's a decline of about 4%. And 2025 data shows another slight dip at 1,654,667 units. This represents a 7% drop. We're seeing a plateau. For 2027, there are new vehicles that could reignite growth, but 2026 might be another year on the plateau. 

Modeling Megawatts

How do we predict what's next? We use different statistical methods. Each one tells a different possible future. The LINEAR method is for the skeptics. It draws a straight line from point A to point B. It doesn't believe in miracles. It projects a total of 1,904,673 for 2026. Then we have the LOGEST model. This is the up and to the right special. It uses a logarithmic regression. It assumes that the growth will return to its previous, explosive pace. It gives us 2,314,497 units. That's the number that gets the bulls excited. The TREND and LINEST methods are the middle ground. They look for the underlying momentum. They both sit around 2.1 million. Finally, we have the Seasonal model. It respects the fact that Tesla always pushes hard in the fourth quarter. It projects 2,024,214 units. These models are helpful, but they don't have eyes. They don't see the factory floors. They don't see the new models coming.

 

The Championed CWC Calculation

Now we come to the CWC estimate. This is my estimate. I didn't just look at numbers. I don't see any volume catalyst in the first half of the year. The more affordable Redwood/Model 2/Model Next is nowhere to be seen. Cybercab can only be deployed as fast as Robotaxi service can be expanded and at this stage, that's at a necessarily safe rate. So, the CWC estimate for 2026 is 1,812,000 units. It's conservative. It's realistic. It acknowledges that new product launches (Semi and Cybercab) are hard. We've seen production hell before. We shouldn't forget it. My model expects Q1 to start at 432,000. It expects Q2 to see a small gain to 440,000. Q3 steps up to 460,000. Q4 finishes at 480,000. This is a disciplined ramp. It doesn't assume that everything will go perfectly. It assumes that there will be hiccups. It assumes that the focus will be on quality over raw quantity. This is the path to long-term health. It's better to build 1.8 million great cars than 2.3 million problematic ones. Scaling production is hard work. It requires more than just a fancy spreadsheet. All of the forecast models I used showed Q1'26 as a strong growth quarter. I'm not sure why. Q1 is well known as a weak quarter for the auto industry in general, and Tesla is no exception here. Even the "seasonal" model that is supposed to take this into account has Q1 with significant growth over Q4. 

 

New Vehicles and New Vistas

Will 2026 be the year that Tesla finally crosses the 2 million mark? If production and sales follow the LOGEST or TREND models, the answer is yes. If they follow the LINEAR or CWC forecasts, the answer is not quite. But the volume isn't the only story in 2026. The mix is changing. Cybercab and the Tesla Semi will add new vehicle categories for Tesla in 2026. These will be heavy hitters in 2027. The Semi has the potential to decarbonize the freight industry. That's a huge deal. One Semi can offset the emissions of dozens of passenger cars. The Cybercab is a different beast. It's a play for the future of personal transportation. It's not about owning a car. It's about transportation as a service. Building a Semi is not exactly like building a Model 3. You need new tools and new skills. The ramp will take time. This is why the CWC estimate, unfortunately, stays below 2 million. We're accounting for the complexity of this radical shift.

This wouldn't be complete if I didn't mention the Tesla Roadster. Although it is not planned for delivery until 2027, there will be a re-reveal and demo of it in 2026 and this could ignite some interest in the brand.

Here's a breakdown of each forecast model: 

Method	Q1 2026E	Q2 2026E	Q3 2026E	Q4 2026E	Total 2026
LINEAR	467,028	473,121	479,215	485,309	1,904,673
TREND	506,914	519,125	531,335	543,545	2,100,919
LOGEST	545,723	567,094	589,301	612,378	2,314,497
Seasonal	479,950	507,127	534,156	502,981	2,024,214
CWC	432,000	440,000	460,000	480,000	1,812,000

 

Sustainable Statistics and Savings

Why does this matter? Every Tesla produced replaces an oil-burning vehicle. That's a win for the lungs of everyone. We've seen the impact in the air quality data. The shift is real. It's not just about luxury anymore. It's about efficiency. Electric motors are far more efficient than internal combustion engines. This is pro-environmental policy in action. It's not just talk. It's physical hardware. It's also about economics.  Now we see a yield on those early bets. EVs now have a lower total cost of ownership, and fleet managers are noticing. We're moving from speculation to a mature industrial powerhouse. The ecological benefits are real. We're saving the planet one battery cell at a time. It's a good trade.

Final Fast-Charging Thoughts

We've covered a lot of ground. We've gone from the early days of 2017 to the high-stakes forecasts of 2026. Tesla is a unique company. It's a tech company that happens to build heavy hardware. The 2 million unit milestone remains the target. It's a psychological barrier. Whether they hit it in 2026 or slightly later is doesn't matter in the big picture. What matters is that the world is moving toward electricity. Tesla is leading the charge. They're proving that sustainable transport is viable. They're proving it can be profitable. We'll keep watching the spreadsheets. We'll keep checking the charts. Every quarterly report is a new chapter in a long story. We're excited to see where it goes. We're all working toward a future free from fossil fuels.

From Aviation to Autonomy - A Million Years in Sixty-Nine Days

The Million-Year Mistake and the Wright Stuff

On October 9, 1903, the New York Times published an editorial that would go down in history as one of the most spectacularly incorrect predictions ever printed. In a piece titled "Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly", the author looked at the repeated failures of early aviators and concluded that the problem was simply too immense for human engineering. The editorial posited that it might take mathematicians and mechanicians anywhere from one million to ten million years to finally evolve a machine that could fly. It was a confident, cynical, and seemingly rational assessment of the state of technology.

Sixty-nine days later, Orville and Wilbur Wright took to the skies above Kitty Hawk, North Carolina. They did not need a million years. They did not even need the rest of the year. They just needed a bicycle shop, some canvas, and a stubborn refusal to listen to the postgraduate pundits of the New York press.

This anecdote is a favorite among tech enthusiasts for a reason. It perfectly encapsulates the "skepticism trap" where intelligent people mistake current limitations for permanent barriers. Today, we see a strikingly similar script playing out with autonomous driving. As self-driving cars teeter on the verge of massive deployment, a vocal chorus of critics insists that the technology is dangerous, doomed, or perpetually five years away. But if history is any guide, betting against the curve of technological progress is a great way to end up looking foolish in retrospect.

The Physics Police and the Vacuum of Imagination

The New York Times was not finished with its bad takes after the Wright Brothers embarrassed them. In 1920, the paper turned its critical gaze toward rocketry. When Robert Goddard proposed that a rocket could function in the vacuum of space, the Times mocked him mercilessly. They claimed Goddard lacked the "knowledge ladled out daily in high schools" because he supposedly did not understand that a rocket needs air to push against. They accused him of ignoring Newton’s laws, when in reality, he understood them better than the writer or editor at the Times.

It took the paper forty-nine years to issue a retraction. On July 17, 1969, as Apollo 11 hurtled toward Luna for the historic moon landing, the Times published a dry correction noting that rockets do, in fact, work in a vacuum. "The Times regrets the error," they wrote.

This type of skepticism is rooted in the "physically impossible" fallacy. Critics look at a new technology and decide it violates the fundamental rules of reality. With autonomous vehicles, we see this in the argument that AI can never truly "drive" because it lacks human intuition or consciousness. Skeptics argue that a computer cannot replicate the subtle social contract of a four-way stop or the gut feeling that a pedestrian is about to step off a curb. They treat the human brain as a magical black box that silicon can never emulate. Yet, neural networks are already parsing these complex visual environments with superhuman consistency. The AI does not need to have a soul to identify a stop sign or calculate the trajectory of a cyclist; it just needs data, and it is consuming petabytes of it every single day.

Horses, Faxes, and the Fear of Change

Another flavor of skepticism comes from those who believe the current solution is already perfect. In 1903, the president of the Michigan Savings Bank famously advised Horace Rackham, Henry Ford’s lawyer, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company. His reasoning was sound to the conservative mind. He said, "The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty, a fad."

This is the "market need" fallacy. It assumes that because society functions well enough with the status quo, no one will want the new thing. We saw this again in 1946 when Darryl Zanuck of 20th Century Fox predicted that television would fail because people would get tired of staring at a plywood box every night. We saw it in 1998 when economist Paul Krugman predicted that the internet’s impact on the economy would be no greater than that of the fax machine.

The table below highlights just how often the experts have completely missed the mark.

Table 1: The Hall of Shameful Predictions

Year	The Skeptic	The Technology	The Prediction	The Reality
1876	Western Union	Telephone	"Inherently of no value to us."	Became the backbone of global  communication.
1903	Michigan Savings Bank	Automobile	"The horse is here to stay."	The US auto industry is now worth billions.
1920	New York Times	Rocketry	Rockets cannot fly in a vacuum.	We landed on the moon 49 years later.
1946	Darryl Zanuck	Television	"People will soon  get tired of staring  at a plywood box."	TV dominated culture for 75 years.
1977	Ken Olsen (DEC)	PC	"No reason anyone  would want a  computer in their  home."	You are reading this on one right now.
1998	Paul Krugman	Internet	Impact no greater than the fax machine.	It rewired the entire human  experience.
2015	Various Critics	Autonomous Cars	"Will never work  in chaotic urban environments."	Robotaxis are  actively logging  millions of  miles.

The Autonomous Arrival - Betting Against Innovation Always Fails

Despite the historical graveyard of bad predictions, skepticism toward autonomous driving remains high. Critics point to high-profile stall-outs or accidents, ignoring the fact that human drivers cause over 40,000 deaths annually in the US alone. The skepticism often misses the exponential nature of AI learning. Every time a Tesla or a Waymo encounters a weird edge case, that data is captured, uploaded, analyzed, and the learnings are pushed back to the entire fleet. The fleet learns as a collective. Human drivers do not. When a teenager in Ohio learns how to handle a skid on black ice, that knowledge stays in their head. When an autonomous vehicle learns it, every car in the network learns it.

We are already seeing the shift. In cities like San Francisco and Austin, fully driverless cars are picking up passengers and navigating complex traffic without a human behind the wheel. The technology is not theoretical; it is operational. The transition from "research project" to "widely deployed utility" is happening right now, masked only by the gradual nature of the rollout. The future is already here; it just has limited deployment.

Sustainability and the Smarter Road

Beyond the just the tech factor, there is a compelling environmental argument for embracing the robot driver. Humans are terrible at driving efficiently. We accelerate too hard, brake too late, and idle unnecessarily. We circle blocks looking for parking, wasting fuel, and clogging city streets.

Autonomous vehicles promise a level of hyper-efficiency that biological drivers cannot match. Imagine a highway where cars platoon inches apart to reduce wind resistance and fuel consumption. This is not just sci-fi dreaming; it is basic physics. By smoothing out the "phantom traffic jams" caused by human over-reaction, AVs can reduce congestion without us needing to pour millions of tons of concrete to widen roads.

Furthermore, the convergence of autonomy and electrification is a happy accident of history. Most autonomous platforms are built on electric architectures, meaning the shift to self-driving is also a shift away from the combustion engine. This transition supports a cleaner future where our cities are quieter and the air is breathable. It is a pro-environmental shift that does not require everyone to become a minimalist; it just requires them to let go of the steering wheel.

"Wrighting" the Wrongs

It is easy to be a skeptic. It feels safe. It feels intellectual to sit back and list the reasons why something will not work. It costs nothing to say "that is impossible" and then carry on with your day. But the history of innovation is written by the people who ignored the "million-year" warnings.

The New York Times was wrong about the airplane. They were wrong about the rocket. And the modern skeptics are wrong about the autonomous car. The technology is not just coming; it is already here, parking itself and reshaping our cities.

So the next time someone tells you that self-driving cars are a fantasy or a dangerous gamble, just remember the Wright Brothers. Remember that while the experts were writing op-eds about how flight was a million years away, Wilbur and Orville were busy tightening the bolts on a machine that would change the world forever. The view is always better from the air, and soon enough, you won't have to go 8,000 feet up to get fresh air.

How Tesla Turns EV Sales into Profits When Others Can't

Electric vehicles continue to spark joy for drivers, and yes, that pun is intended. These machines offer smoother rides, more affordable fill-ups, and fresher city air. However, the road toward full electrification remains a winding path filled with unexpected twists. While legacy automakers hit significant potholes throughout 2025, Tesla continues to cruise ahead; meanwhile, the overall market for these vehicles continues to accelerate globally.

Piston Pains and Profit Pitfalls: The Legacy Lurch

The traditional giants of the automotive world placed massive bets on an electrified future, but 2025 brought a brutal reckoning for those investments. Ford slammed the brakes hard; the company recognized a $19.5 billion writedown and associated restructuring charges for their various EV initiatives. Projections for the Ford Model E division suggest ongoing annual losses between $5 billion and $5.5 billion. GM faced its own fiscal fiasco, as it absorbed $1.6 billion in charges resulting from delayed or reduced factory plans. Facilities in Spring Hill, Tennessee, and other locations experienced production halts or significant slowdowns. Volkswagen also wrestled with its own woes, because high investments paired with low returns dragged down their corporate profits.

These troubles stem from a few clear catalysts. Consumer demand in the US dipped slightly after certain tax credits expired, and battery prices remained stubbornly high. Global supply chains buckled under the weight of new tariffs, and competition intensified on a global scale. Many legacy firms leaned back on hybrids and traditional engines to generate quick cash, yet this shift stretched their research budgets thin. Giants that dominated the asphalt for decades now find themselves scrambling like frantic startups. This situation underscores the absolute necessity of agility; a true transition requires bold moves rather than timid tweaks.

Tesla’s Tenacious Tech: Profits in a Sea of Red Ink

Tesla continues to defy the general industry gloom by posting profits while its rivals bleed cash. During 2025, Tesla deliveries reached approximately 1.7 million units; this volume remained roughly flat compared to the previous year. Even with stagnant growth, their automotive gross margins stayed positive because cost cuts and manufacturing efficiency reigned supreme. There are six primary factors that define the edge Tesla holds over its legacy competitors.

The first factor is a classic first-mover advantage. Tesla ramped up its production years ago, and its Gigafactories now churn out millions of battery cells and vehicles annually. By following Wright’s Law, their costs drop with every incremental vehicle produced. Legacy players lag behind with lower volumes; consequently, fixed expenses tend to crush their margins. 

The second factor is vertical vigor. Tesla owns its battery production, software development, and even parts of its material supply chain. This reduced reliance on outside suppliers helps prices plummet. Traditional makers outsource heavily, so they pay a premium during global disruptions.

Public data does not provide an exact percentage for the in-house versus supplier portion of a vehicle’s total bill of materials. However, Tesla utilizes a high level of vertical integration that focuses on expensive components like batteries, motors, software, and power electronics. Batteries alone represent 30% to 40% of the cost of an EV. While legacy automakers like GM and Ford rely more on external partners, GM has attempted to increase in-house battery production via joint ventures. Tesla minimizes external dependency for its core technology; this strategy reduces both costs and risks. Ford remains the most supplier-dependent of the big three, as it purchases battery packs from SK On and sources many powertrain components off-the-shelf.

Vertical Integration Comparison Table

Aspect	Tesla	GM	Ford
Batteries	Mostly in-house cells/production	JV plants (Ultium Cells)	Primarily supplied (e.g., SK On)
Motors/Powertrain	Fully in-house	Increasingly in-house	Mostly supplied
Software	Fully in-house	Mixed (some in-house)	Mixed/supplied
Estimated In-House BOM	~80% (key components)	<50% (growing via batteries)	Lowest (~30-40%)
Strategy	High vertical integration	Moving toward more (via JVs)	Heavy supplier reliance

Tesla’s approach allows for superior cost control and rapid innovation. GM and Ford leverage supplier expertise, but they face higher costs and more dependencies. These figures represent estimates based on industry reports from late 2025, since exact bill of materials breakdowns remain proprietary. 

The third advantage involves platforms that are purpose-built for electrification. Tesla designs its vehicles as EVs from the very first sketch. Other automakers often share platforms with internal combustion models, which means compromises are baked in from the start. Tesla uses Gigacastings to simplify builds and reduce part counts; furthermore, they have optimized wiring through the Etherloop concept. This system improves performance for sensor-heavy cars while simultaneously reducing weight.

Fourth is software savvy. Tesla develops nearly all vehicle software in-house, including the operating system, infotainment, over-the-air updates, and autonomy features. This integration enables rapid iterations and recurring revenue from subscriptions. In contrast, Ford and GM historically relied on suppliers for software; this led to fragmented systems and sluggish updates. Both are shifting toward in-house development, but they trail Tesla in terms of sophistication. The fifth advantage is the direct sales model. Direct-to-buyer stores skip the overhead and fees associated with traditional dealers. Finally, the sixth advantage is simple experience. Tesla has iterated on a single technology for two decades. While Tesla has experts working on materials and battery tech, these technologies often feel like an afterthought at legacy firms.

Reason	Tesla Advantage	Legacy Disadvantage
Scale	Millions produced; economies kick in	Low volumes; high fixed costs spread thin
Integration	Owns batteries, software	Relies on suppliers; pays more
Design	EV-native platforms	Retrofitted ICE setups; inefficient
Sales Model	Direct, software revenue	Dealers, no digital upsell
Experience	Decade of tweaks	Early transition pains

This data tells a clear tale: Tesla turns electrified cars into cash cows, while others treat them as costly calves.

Nascent Nightmares: The Startup Struggle

Newcomers to the industry are not faring much better. Rivian notched minor gross profit wins in late 2024 and 2025, including a $170 million gross profit in the final quarter of 2024. However, full profitability remains out of reach. Cash burns quickly, and new tariffs bite hard into their bottom line. Lucid posted heavy losses in 2025 as operational costs mounted; consequently, Saudi funds continue to prop the company up. Ramps for the Gravity SUV have been delayed, and parts shortages persist.

Both companies embody the difficult "valley of death" phase of manufacturing. Scaling a business sucks up capital, and these firms lack legacy profits from gas vehicles to cushion the blow. Rivian is edging closer to a breakeven point, but Lucid continues to face deeper financial drains. It is an interesting irony that these startups intended to disrupt the industry, yet now they must focus entirely on dodging their own demise. This highlights the rare recipe Tesla perfected; without scale or savvy, these vehicles simply eat money. However, persistence pays off, because cleaner fleets require a diverse set of players.

Future Forecasts: The 2026 Pulse

The world of electrified transport continues to widen wonderfully. Global sales boomed to approximately 18 million units in 2025, which represents an increase of over 20%. Growth was driven primarily by China, Europe, and various emerging markets, although the US market slowed after the expiration of certain credits. While Tesla’s specific market share adjusted to these dynamics, its absolute clout remains firm. For 2026, Tesla is targeting a major takeoff. Core models like the refreshed Model 3 and Model Y are expected to see production growth in the high single-digits or low double-digits compared to 2025 levels. A recovery in demand, price adjustments, and hardware updates will fuel this expansion.

The Cybercab is scheduled to kick off in April, though volumes will be low at first. The Tesla Semi will continue to ramp up, reaching the low to mid thousands. A moderate estimate for total vehicle production in 2026 sits between 1.8 million and 2.0 million units. Expected quarterly production looks like 440,000 in Q1, 500,000 in Q2, 520,000 in Q3, and 570,000 in Q4 (with 30k errorbars per Q). Significant upside exists if the market rebounds strongly, but risks like competition and autonomy hurdles remain. Affordable models and the growth of the energy division add long-term allure to the brand.

Final Volts: Finding Our Way Forward

The landscape of 2025 offered several sharp lessons. Established giants stumbled under the weight of ambitious bets that met harsh economic realities, and startups burned through cash while chasing a scale they could not yet command. Tesla alone navigated the turbulence with sustained profitability; it proved that early focus, relentless efficiency, and bold integration create durable advantages. These contrasts reveal a deeper truth about the industry. Transitions of this magnitude reward those who commit fully, and half-measures invite heavy costs. Wholehearted execution builds structural moats that others struggle to cross.

The market itself presses forward undeterred. Millions of additional drivers choose electrified options each year for the silence, the savings, and the smoother experience. Production capacity is expanding, new models are arriving, and costs continue their steady decline. Tesla stands poised to capture a meaningful share of this growth in 2026 and beyond, as its structural edges remain intact. Fresh products will join the lineup, and the growth of energy storage adds another powerful lever for the company. It is quite a twist that the legacy automakers were once the behemoths of scaling, yet they now struggle where it matters most. In the end, this shift serves a simple and profound purpose. It moves society closer to reliable and abundant transport. Patience and persistence will carry us toward a future free from fossil fuels.

What to Expect from Tesla in 2026: A Guide to the Autonomous Avalanche

Introduction

2026 marks the year Tesla stops merely leading the electric vehicle industry and starts writing the first chapter in the new book of autonomy. Expect vehicle deliveries climb over 2025's results with Cybercab "deliveries" in the 2nd half of '26. While the vehicle business will still have growth, this is the year of Optimus, robotaxis, Cybercab, and energy hitting with full force. Below, we'll look at what's been announced, what surprises there may be, and one bold prediction for 2026.

Part 1: Announced Plans – The Stuff Musk Has Literally Said

Optimus Gen 3: Robots That Fold Laundry and Your Skepticism

Musk confirmed Optimus Gen 3 prototypes will appear in Q1 2026, with low-volume factory deployment mid-year and thousands rolling out by late 2026. Hands with 22 degrees of freedom, 45 lb carry capacity, and Grok-level conversation skills are locked in. While the full unveil has been teased for Q1 2026, I expect it to be the classic “one more thing” moment at the new Roadster event on April 1, 2026 (assuming it is not delayed again).

Cybercab and Robovan: No Steering Wheel, No Problem

Production of the steering-wheel-free Cybercab is scheduled to begin in 1H 2026 at Giga Texas, utilizing the unboxed manufacturing process. These vehicles are not intended for individual sale; they will go straight into robotaxi service, with the first units likely deploying in Austin. Once these vehicles are licensed and put into service, they technically count as delivered, even if Tesla still owns them. This is true for service loaners and the like too, but Cybercab will be the first time this volume is significant.

Operating cost is estimated at around $0.20 per mile. The 20-seat Robovan follows the steerwheel-free vision (though, in my opinion, we’re not likely to see Robovans on the roads in 2026). Musk says unsupervised FSD will be approved in multiple US states and China by mid-year, with Europe trailing shortly after. This could open these regions up for FSD sales and robotaxi service this year, so let's cover that next.

Robotaxi Service Launch and Rapid Expansion

The ride-hail network launches Q2 2026 in Texas and California the moment regulators sign off, quickly expanding to Vegas. If the fastest way from point A to point B is through a Boring Company tunnel, your robotaxi ride might duck underground to skip surface congestion entirely. Musk still talks about “millions” of robotaxis long-term, but 2026 realistically starts with tens of thousands of Cybercabs plus opt-in owner cars. Owners can earn passive income at roughly 30-40¢ per mile paid to owners. In late 2025, we saw the first unsupervised Robotaxis on Austin streets with no one in the driver or passenger seats. These vehicles were not carrying passengers, but you can expect to see passengers early in 2026.

Roadster 2.0: A One-Second Terror

Reveal locked for April 1, 2026. Sub-one-second 0-60 mph, 620-mile range, optional SpaceX thruster package. Production starts late 2027 at $200,000 USD base. This should be a mind-blowing demo that we get to see this year. 

Semi Factory and Volume Ramp

Tesla held a groundbreaking ceremony in January 2024 for the Semi Factory expansion of Giga Nevada. I expect to see the ribbon-cutting ceremony near the 2nd anniversary of that groundbreaking. 

I expect a meaningful number of Semi customer deliveries in 2026. With production ramping to 50,000 units annual capacity target by late this decade.

Energy Explosion

Megapack 3 and Megablock ship from Houston starting H2 2026. Powerwall virtual power plants expand nationwide in the US. Dry-cathode 4680 cells drop storage prices another 20-30%.

Grok Takes the Wheel: From Chat to Command

Grok 4 turns from 2025's voice chatbot into a full vehicle controller in 2026. Musk confirmed it will set destinations, adjust settings, and open the glovebox. Rollout hits all compatible models by mid-year. More on this below in our Conjecture section. 

Part 2: Conjecture – Logical Extensions That Would Surprise Exactly No One

Vehicle Deliveries Land Around 2.15–2.2 Million (35% Growth)

Core Model 3/Y refreshed lineup carries ~1.7 million units, Cybertruck scales to ~80,000, Cybercab adds ~100,000-150,000 in H2, and Semi contributes low five figures. The unboxed process continues to evolve. Social change at scale is a slow process, limiting growth, still respectable, but unlike many of the 50% plus years that we've seen privious years.

Model	Projected 2026 Volume	Key Notes
Model 3/Y	~1.7 million	Refreshed lineup dominates, Juniper refresh boosts demand in US and Europe.
S/X and Cybertruck	~60,000	Steady Cybertruck ramp at Giga Texas.
Cybercab	~50,000-80,000	April production start, initial Austin deployment, scales throughout the year.
Semi	5,000 - 10,000	Nevada factory enables fleet deliveries to partners like Pepsi.

Model YL Goes Global

The long-wheelbase, three-row Model YL that conquered China in 2025 finally escapes Shanghai. North America gets it in mid 2026 (likely built at Giga Texas), followed by Europe and right-hand-drive markets by year-end. It becomes the practical family hauler that keeps Model Y as the world’s best-selling vehicle.

New Country and Region Expansion

India finally opens fully in H1 with Mumbai showrooms and imported Model 3/Y, followed by Japan’s aggressive retail doubling (10+ new stores). Southeast Asia (Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam) and Brazil see official launches by mid-year. These markets together add 200,000-300,000 deliveries and plant flags in the next billion-customer frontier.

Model S and Model X Get the Cybertruck Treatment

Fremont finally retires the flagship production in 2026. But not because the Model S and X are being discontinued. Instead, a heavily refreshed Model S and Model X move production to Giga Texas to share the Cybertruck’s platform. This adds steer-by-wire, Etherloop wiring, 48 V architecture, and gigacastings to the S and X. Expect sharper styling, longer range, on this massive refresh. 

So what happens to that space in Fremont? It's quickly repurposed; the freed-up floor space instantly becomes the first high-volume Optimus production line, accelerating humanoid robot production far beyond the initial thousands.

Affordable EVs as the Cybercab Trojan Horse

The sub-$30,000 compact hatch and sedan (we've dubbed "Model Next") emerges as a stealthy sibling of the Cybercab platform. While the two vehicles will share some interior and styling queues, they will be very different vehicles under the skin. It's not just a Cybercab with a retrofitted steering wheel, pedals, four doors, and smaller wheels to slash costs below Model 3. This pivot occurs, not because autonomy fails, but because today, if you want to sell cars, people expect to be able to drive it for themselves when they want to. For deeper speculation, see this analysis on how Cybercab sneaks affordability into Tesla's lineup.

Robotaxi Service Still Becomes a Monster

Even with fewer total cars, a focused fleet of 200,000-300,000 robotaxis (Cybercabs + opt-in owners) could capture 8-12% of US ride-hail miles in launch cities by year-end. Revenue per vehicle proves the margin story long before volume hits absurd levels. 2026 is the year that we'll see robotaxis with passengers and without safety monitors. About 1 year after the safety monitors are removed, we can expect to see Tesla allowing privately owned vehicles to operate as robotaxis.

FSD + Boring Company Tunnels: The Vegas Loop on Steroids

Cybercabs join the mix in the Loop tunnels, but Model Ys will continue to be the primary workhorse in Boring Company projects throughout 2026. New Loop projects in Miami, Austin, and San Antonio break ground for robotaxi traffic.

Cybertruck Wolverine Edition

A narrower, regulation-friendly variant appears late 2026 for Europe and Japan.

AI5 Inference Clusters Inside Every Factory

AI5 samples arrive late 2026, turning Giga Texas and Nevada into edge-inference hubs for real-time Optimus training.

Powerwall 4 Sneaks In

Higher capacity Powerwall 4 with 20 kWh usable and bidirectional charging lands mid-2026.

Grok Gets Grokkier: Proactive and Predictive

Grok starts suggesting detours, syncing with home Powerwalls, and roasting your music taste while quietly optimizing every watt. With full access to the car's cameras via "Grok Vision," it also delivers real-time snark about the people and things you drive past, turning every commute into a running commentary that is equal parts helpful and hilarious.

Giga Mexico: The 2027 Silver Lining

Groundbreaking slips fully to 2027. Permits keep stacking and hiring continues, but no dirt moves in 2026. The million-unit factory waits patiently for its turn in the sun.

Tesla Insurance Reaches 30+ US States

From roughly 25 states today, Tesla Insurance reaches 30 or more by the end of 2026, adding Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, plus two others via self-underwriting and refined Safety Score rules. This covers 2-3 million owners, slashing premiums 20-30% for safe drivers and syncing with FSD discounts. Plus, it's much easier to roll out robotaxi service in areas where they already have a functional insurance business, greasing the wheels for seamless fleet integration.

FSD Expands to More Countries

Unsupervised FSD rolls out in select regions of the US. Namely, to areas where Tesla has robotaxis in service. FSD Supervised moves beyond the US and China to the UK, Netherlands, South Korea, and Japan by mid-2026, with pilots in India and Brazil by year-end. This unlocks robotaxi fleets for expansion into 10+ countries over the coming years, turning global roads into seamless, emissions-free highways.

Tesla Heat Pump: Efficient Home Heating on Hold

Musk has teased a super-efficient residential heat pump since 2020, promising quiet operation and big energy savings to pair with Powerwalls and solar. Tesla already has a lot on their plate for 2026, so I don't expect to see any mention of this. Which is too bad because they could make an amazing product in this space.

Conclusion

2026 is the year Tesla stops being merely the world’s biggest EV maker and starts becoming the backbone of a new energy-and-transport reality. Robots leave factories in the tens of thousands, driverless Cybercabs swarm the streets, Grok turns every ride into a sarcastic joy, and refreshed Model S/X plus the Model YL keep the premium and family segments locked down. Growth lands on top of an already-massive base, yet the real story is the domino effect: cheaper batteries, smarter tunnels, new markets lighting up from Mumbai to Miami, and Optimus turning idle floor space into humanoid-robot gold. The air gets cleaner faster than anyone dared predict, and the planet breathes a very audible sigh of relief. Mexico may wait until 2027, but the rest of the world gets the future a full year early. Bring popcorn, solar-popped of course, and maybe an extra bag, because this show is going to run long past midnight.

The Road Not Taken: Imagine A Century Without Combustion, The Electric Dream

January: a new year, a new chapter, and a time for remembering the journey so far and anticipating the path ahead. Our first month was named for the two-faced god Janus. In this post, one face of Janus gazes back at the early 1900s, when steam, electric, and gasoline vehicles all vied for dominance. Janus' other face peers forward from there, imagining a world where electric vehicles (EVs) prevailed in the early 1900s battle. If the butterfly wings flapped in a different direction a century ago and EVs had become the dominant vehicle technology, this would have completely reshaped the world we inhabit today. On this What If? path, things would be very different today. What lessons can we learn from this, and what could it mean for our future?

In the bustling streets of the early 1900s, automobiles were a chaotic symphony of steam whistles, electric hums, and gasoline roars. Steam-powered vehicles chugged along with bulky boilers, electrics glided silently on nascent batteries, and internal combustion engines (ICE) sputtered along. In this 3-way competition for the future of personal transportation, it was ICE that ultimately claimed victory. Fueled by cheap oil, mass production innovations like Henry Ford's assembly line, and the allure of long-distance travel, the other technologies were outpaced. This ICE dominance steered a century of human engineering prowess and innovation toward refining the noisy, polluting heart of the automobile. While this path brought remarkable mobility, it also locked in environmental costs and global conflict.

The ICE reign sparked countless breakthroughs, transforming a crude contraption into a pinnacle of power. Engineers tackled inefficiencies in fuel use, emissions, and performance, yielding innovations that powered global economies but there are limitations in the physics and chemistry of petroleum combustion that cannot be avoided. Here are several pivotal advancements in the design and control of internal combustion engines.

Advancement	Circa	Key Benefits and Impact
Fuel Injection	1950s	Replaced carburetors for precise fuel delivery, boosting efficiency by up to 15% and enabling smoother starts in cold weather.
Overhead Camshafts (OHC)	1960s	Improved valve timing for better airflow, increasing power output by 20-30% without enlarging engines.
Variable Valve Timing	1980s	Dynamically adjusts valve operation for optimal low-speed torque and high-speed power, cutting fuel use by 5-10%.
Direct Injection	1990s	Sprays fuel straight into cylinders for leaner burns, enhancing economy by 15% and reducing emissions.
Turbocharging	1960s (widespread 2000s)	Forces extra air into combustion for 30-50% more power from smaller engines, aiding downsizing for lighter vehicles.
Engine Control Units (ECUs)	1970s	Computerized oversight of ignition and injection, optimizing performance and enabling real-time diagnostics for 10-20% better efficiency.

These leaps made ICE vehicles more potent and parsimonious, yet they still guzzled fossil fuels and spewed carbon dioxide.

Electric Dreams

Now let's detour to our electric What if? and imagine that electric vehicles (EVs) had prevailed instead.

On this path, EVs, with their quiet elegance and zero tailpipe emissions, had outpaced rivals through better battery advancements, policy nudges, or oil scarcity. That century's worth of ingenuity was poured into batteries rather than pistons. A century of focused R&D would have supercharged battery tech, eclipsing the incremental tweaks of ICE. Today's vehicles would boast specifications that make current models (gas or electric) seem quaint: ranges exceeding 1,000 miles on a single charge, thanks to solid-state batteries or something beyond today's lithium chemistries refined over generations. Acceleration could hit 0-60 mph in under 2 seconds as standard, with regenerative braking recapturing 90% of kinetic energy. Vehicle weights might drop 40% via advanced composites, born from EV-centric manufacturing that prioritized lightweight frames over heavy blocks. And prices? Entry-level sedans could cost under $15,000 USD, as economies of scale in battery production slash costs by 80% from early 1900s levels.

Energy density stands out as the crown jewel of this alternate ingenuity. Real-world lithium-ion batteries hover at 250-300 watt-hours per kilogram (Wh/kg), a far cry from gasoline's 12 kWh/kg effective density. However, with 100 years of undivided attention, EV batteries might reach 1.5 - 2 kWh/kg, rivaling fossil fuels (considering efficiencies) while sidestepping their toxicity. It's important to say that EVs are 4 to 5 times more efficient at turning energy into motion, so 2kWh of battery capacity is effectively worth 8 to 10 kWh of gasoline. This leap would stem from the relentless pursuit of materials like sodium-ion or metal-air cells, coupled with optimized manufacturing. Charging times could shrink to 5 minutes for a full top-up, powered by ubiquitous solar-gridded stations. Ultracapacitors, those quick-charge wonders storing energy electrostatically, would indeed be commonplace. Integrated into every EV, they'd handle burst power for acceleration or regen, extending battery life by 50% and enabling seamless grid-to-vehicle energy trading. Vehicles become rolling power banks, feeding homes during blackouts.

Societally, this EV utopia would ripple profoundly through people's mindsets and attitudes, fostering a regenerative lifestyle. The whole world would be breathing easier. Cities like Los Angeles or Beijing would have never choked on smog, sparing millions from respiratory ills and slashing healthcare costs by billions annually. Air quality improvements alone could boost global life expectancy today by 2-3 years. Using combustion for any purpose would be seen as crude and wasteful. 

Oil's diminished sway in this alternative timeline world would rewrite geopolitics: no OPEC cartels, fewer Middle East conflicts, and trillions of dollars redirected from drilling to renewables and reforestation. Wars might pivot to securing rare earth mines, or not occur at all, as renewable grids democratize energy. Culturally, the romance of the open road is enhanced with silent, scenic cruises and with pop culture celebrating inventors like Tesla as folk heroes rather than eccentrics. Modern challenges, like access to charging in rural areas, are long ago solved.

In reflecting on these paths, the ICE's century of triumphs feels like a detour from destiny, one that moved us forward on the tech tree but scarred the Earth. Undeniably, electrification is the ultimate path forward. An EV-led world promises not just superior specs, but a restored planet: clearer skies, and easier breathing. As we stand at another crossroads with climate urgency, embracing electrics now honors that lost electric dream, urging us toward a sustainable, harmonious future.

Rockets, Robots, and Renewables: The 2025 Nobel's Roadmap to an Eco-Abundant World

Innovation's Next Wave: How the 2025 Nobel Insights Illuminate a Sustainable Future

Picture a world where technology breakthroughs aren't just the next device that you have to buy, but something that helps us do more with less. An innovation that can patch environmental gaps and propel economies forward. That is the essence of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt. Their work spotlights "creative destruction," a concept where fresh ideas dismantle outdated systems to spark lasting growth. Mokyr traces this through history, showing how cultural openness fueled the Industrial Revolution. Aghion and Howitt add mathematical models that demonstrate how research investments trigger innovation cycles to keep prosperity humming. In our time, this plays out vividly in technologies like electric vehicles, autonomous driving, reusable rockets, solar energy, and battery storage. These are not sacrifices for the planet. They are smart bets on abundance. By applying the laureates' lens, we see how such shifts promise cleaner air, lower costs, and broader wealth. On this last day of 2025, let's explore what this prize-winning research says about our future.

EVs do not demand that we give up mobility; they give us a better way.

EVs: Charging With Creative Destruction

Electric vehicles are a textbook case of creative destruction in action. For over a century, internal combustion engines ruled roads, guzzling fossil fuels and churning out emissions. Now, EVs flip the script. Aghion and Howitt's model explains the mechanics: upfront research in batteries and motors yields vehicles with vastly superior efficiency, instant torque, and operating costs under $0.04 per mile, versus $0.13 for gas cars. This erodes the old guard. Global EV sales hit over 9 million in the first half of 2025 alone, claiming 23% of the new light-duty vehicle market. The predictable future shows the supply chains for oil-fueled transportation fading, replaced by battery factories and recycling hubs. Mokyr would nod at the cultural pivot and historical parallels here, much like Enlightenment thinkers embraced steam over sails. Until its demise, policies such as the US Inflation Reduction Act's tax credits nurtured this; drawing in consumers who value sustainability without skimping on performance. The payoff? Trillions in saved energy bills and health costs from cleaner urban air. EVs do not require us to give up mobility. They enhance it, paving roads to growth that respects the Earth.

Autonomous Driving: Navigating a Smarter Mobility Landscape

Autonomous driving takes this disruption to the next level, reimagining a $7 trillion global mobility pie. Human drivers are prone to error. Manual systems keep us chained to outdated controls. Enter AI-guided systems, where sensors and algorithms obsolete steering wheels and fatigue. The laureates' Endogenous Growth theory fits perfectly: iterative software upgrades slash accident rates by up to 90%, unlocking robotaxi fleets that could halve urban transport expenses. The autonomous vehicle market is projected to soar past $4 trillion by 2034. Mokyr's historical echo rings true in the institutional tweaks, like updated traffic codes mirroring 19th-century rail regulations. Freed from the wheel, people reclaim hours for creativity, rest, recreation, or work. Fewer crashes mean healthier people. Environmentally, fewer crashes mean less wreckage in landfills, and optimized routes cut fuel waste by 20-30%. Self-driving cars destroy jobs in traditional driving roles but births roles in data ethics, fleet management, and new roles that are yet to be invented. Autonomous tech whispers a greener commute, one where safety and efficiency dance in harmony.

Reusable Rockets: Launching a New Era of Orbital Access

Reusable rockets, trailblazed by SpaceX, hurl us into orbital economics with gusto. Throwaway launches once made space a luxury for only governments, costing $10,000 per kilogram to orbit. Now, Falcon 9's landings and Starship's visions drop that to around $100 per kilogram. Aghion and Howitt's waves of innovation capture this: each reuse refines designs, obsoleting expendable rivals and slashing mission prices by 100 times. The space economy, valued at $570 billion in 2023, eyes $2 trillion by 2040, fueled by satellite swarms for climate monitoring and global connectivity, space-based energy harvest, space-based compute, Lunar bases, and Mars gateways. Mokyr may highlight this affordable space access as a cultural enabler, akin to patent booms that shielded early inventors. Private players thrive, spawning Earth-observing tools that track deforestation or ocean health in real-time. No longer sporadic feats, space becomes routine progress.

When an alternative is better and cheaper, things change quickly.

Solar Energy: Harnessing the Sun for Endless Power

Solar energy turns the tables. Fossil plants, with their fuel bills and smoke stacks, held sway for generations. Photovoltaic panels change that, harnessing sunlight at costs that plunged from $7.50 per watt in 2010 to under $0.30 today, a drop exceeding 96%. The laureates' model illuminates why: R&D in perovskites and trackers spawns better PV systems, making coal uneconomic. Grids decentralize, with rooftops turning homes into mini-generators and cutting transmission losses by 7%. Mokyr draws parallels to the eclipse of whale oil by kerosene. When an alternative is cheaper and better, the market responds, and change happens. By mid-century, solar energy could supply 50% of global electricity, saving $1.5 trillion annually in fossil fuel imports. This is environmental elegance: boundless rays yield clean electrons, fostering growth that leaves waterways and skies untouched.

Battery Energy Storage: Stabilizing the Grid for a Brighter Tomorrow

Battery energy storage seals the renewable deal. Batteries tame solar and wind's intermittency without dirty backups. No more need for emission-spewing peaker plants. Now, lithium packs dispatch power on demand. Aghion and Howitt's cycles explain the surge: scale drives chemistry tweaks, like more affordable, highly stable LFP cells that outlast rivals and are more easily recycled. This obsoletes gas turbines, enabling virtual power plants that shave peaks and save $150 billion annually by 2030. Mokyr spots parallels in early telegraph communications aiding railroad coordination; one new technology enabling another. Another example is EVs buffering the grid via vehicle-to-grid tech, making the large EV battery have a dual purpose, and weaving energy storage into our daily life. The result is a robust grid with smooth renewable integration by batteries that buffer weather whims and bolster biodiversity by reducing mercury emissions.

Aligning with Tesla's Master Plan 3: A Blueprint for Sustainable Scale

These threads weave neatly into Tesla's Master Plan 3, a 2023 blueprint for sustainable energy. It maps electrifying transport, heat, and industry on renewable backbones, demanding 50% less material than fossil paths. The laureates' destruction fits Tesla's battery ramp-up, where cost curves mirror Aghion-Howitt math for self-sustaining loops. Mokyr's cultural nod aligns with grid upgrades embedding renewable norms, redirecting industrial legacies toward abundance. Tesla catalyzes this, proving innovation scales without scarcity.

Echoing the CarsWithCords.net Vision: Green Abundance Without Compromise

We echoed many of these same ideas in our 2022 post "Green Abundance: No Sacrifice, No CO2." In fact, we even had the same historical whale oil example as the laureates. That post champions zero-emission living via top-tier tech. It spotlights driving a Tesla as proof that EVs beat gas without trade-offs. This mirrors the Nobel thesis: superior goods spur adoption per Wright's Law, enabling Jevons Paradox to ignite abundance engines. Mokyr's work shows that subsidies can jumpstart nations to clean paths. Both our vision and the laureates' vision shun restraint for smart abundance, uniting on policies that promote prosperity without destroying the planet.

Conclusion: Riding the Wave Forward

In wrapping up, the 2025 Nobel reminds us that true progress pairs ingenuity with care for our shared home. The US manufacturing credits for building renewable infrastructure are about jobs, but they are also building a progress-focused culture. EVs, autonomy, rockets, solar, and batteries are not a distraction. They are the new engines of growth, destroying waste while building resilience. Backed by Mokyr's history, as well as Aghion and Howitt's models, these real-world strides promise a world richer in options and lighter on the land. We stand at the cusp. By championing such creative waves, we craft economies that thrive, not despite innovation. The path forward gleams with cleaner, greener possibilities, inviting us all to ride the innovation wave to a future free from fossil fuels.

Tesla 2025 Lookback

Peering Back at My Tesla 2025 Crystal Ball

About a year ago, I sat down with a steaming cup and a healthy dose of optimism to sketch out Tesla's possible 2025 roadmap in this post. As someone who's long championed electric vehicles for their role in slashing tailpipe emissions and bolstering energy independence, I decided to put on my Carnac the Magnificent costume. 

I took swings at Optimus, vehicle refreshes, Cybercab and even the affordable "Model 2." So how'd I do? As the saying goes, "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future." This is especially true when trying to predict Elon Musk's timelines. Fast-forward one year to today, in December 2025, and it's time for a candid scorecard. My batting average? Roughly 60-70% on the big swings. Some predictions landed with the smoothness of a Highland Model 3; others slipped like Optimus stepping on a banana peel. Let's unpack the hits, the near-misses, and the flat-out flops.

Vehicles: Refreshes Rock, But Newbies Notch Delays

Tesla's lineup continued to evolve in 2025. I was betting on a new affordable model (called Redwood) to shake up the EV scene and boost volumes. That didn't happen (in 2025). Robotaxis are great, but affordable personal cars will have a significant place in sales rankings for another decade or two, and this is not a segment that Tesla will want to cede to others like the Bolt and LEAF.

Prediction	Outcome	Score
Redwood: Compact crossover production starting mid-2025 at ~$25,000, 225+ mile range on 54 kWh LFP battery, NV9X platform, AI5 hardware, minimalist interior, scaling to 10,000/week at Giga Texas/Shanghai.	Redwood production didn't happen, and it is not part of Tesla's public roadmap.	Total miss. You can expect to see this again in my 2026 prediction list.
Roadster: Redesigned unveiling in August 2025, possibly tied to AI Day or Redwood event.	Delay on the unveil; it's now slated for April 1, 2026, with production whispers for 2027. It's still planned, but no shiny reveal yet.	Flop city. This flying roadster remains the eternal tease, but when it drops, it'll redefine zero-emission speed demons.
Juniper (Model Y refresh): Launch deliveries in March 2025 (US/China first), with 3% range boost, lighter weight, power-fold rear seats, power frunk, ambient lighting, front-bumper camera, second-row screen, improved suspension, & larger frunk.	Delivered bang-on: China and US rollouts hit March, packing a 3% range bump (up to 320+ miles), aero tweaks for lighter curb weight, front bumper camera, power frunk, tuned suspension, and a beefier frunk. Ambient lighting and fold-flat seats shine; no second-row screen, but the full-width taillight bar steals the show.	Bullseye. This facelift turned the Model Y into an even slicker daily driver, coaxing more miles from each charge and keeping EV adoption humming.
Model S/X: Survive as halo vehicles with potential refresh (lush interiors, noise-dampening, smoother suspension, price hike); re-add turn-signal stalk, ambient lighting, power seats/frunk/doors, front camera; free lifetime Supercharging/connectivity; Grok integration premiere then 3-6 month fleet rollout; 48V battery, Etherloop, steer-by-wire, and a price increase.	June refresh brought quieter cabins via better dampening, air suspension tweaks for silkier rides, front bumper camera, Frost Blue paint, and up to 410-mile range on the S Long Range. $5,000 hike (S at $84,990; X at $89,990). Free perks persist; Grok rolled fleet-wide mid-year. No stalk revival, ambient lights, or confirmed 48V/Etherloop.	Solid partial. The price increase and Luxe Package are exactly what we called for. The S & X are Veblen goods. The refresh gave them a needed update. I overshot with 48V and other items that they don't have yet. Still, they anchor Tesla's premium EV perch.

Autonomous Driving and Services: Supervised Steps Forward

Autonomy was my moonshot bet, envisioning robotaxis zipping through Austin and Vegas with minimal human meddling. Reality served a supervised starter pack, which still edges us closer, but less than our forecast. Testing in Austin launched in June with Model Ys, safety monitors in the vehicle, and remote ops for tricky spots with FSD training gobbling up intervention data. The Bay Area, not Vegas, was next on the list. However, Vegas got the nod via Nevada permits in September 2025, so it will be there soon. Partial credit: Foundations firm, but scaling's a slow burn.

Production and Manufacturing: Semi Scores a Win

Heavy hauling is vital for environmental impact, and boy, did it deliver. Semi engineering wrapped early; Giga Nevada's 50,000-unit factory neared completion by November, with first builds trickling by year-end and full ramps in March 2026. Southwest US Megawatt chargers sprouted; DHL piloted 5,000+ km runs in California, while PepsiCo and global testers joined the fray. These beasts promise to decarbonize trucking one silent mile at a time. Let's hope this momentum continues in 2026.

Robotics: Optimus Stumbles, But Strides

I foresaw 3-5k Optimus units in factories by late 2025, as well as demoing flair at events. Optimus made big strides in 2025 (figuratively and literally). It was handing out popcorn at the Tesla Diner opening and candy on Halloween. Optimus learned kung fu to fight Jared Leto and was making full-stride jogging maneuvers by the end of the year. Optimus Gen 3 unveil has been teased for Q1 2026. 

Energy and Infrastructure: Diner Delights, NACS Nailed

My infrastructure ink focused on fun and flow. The 50s Diner (aka Rock-n-Charge) flipped open in July at West Hollywood's 7001 Santa Monica Blvd: 24/7 retro vibes, 80 V4 Superchargers, 250+ seats, giant screens, and Optimus swag. Route 66 nostalgia meets fast charging. Spot-on. And NACS? A triumph. 2025 models from BMW/Mini/Rolls-Royce, Ford, GM, Polestar/Volvo/Nissan packed native ports; Mercedes hopped in February, majors by summer. Stellantis lags to 2026, but 28,000+ Superchargers now welcome all EVs. This interoperability turbocharges EV accessibility, one plug at a time.

Crystal Ball Retrospective: Hits, Misses, and Mileage Ahead

Looking back, my prescient prognostications shone on refreshes like Juniper and infrastructure icons like the Diner, which kept Tesla's ecosystem electric and inviting. The Semi and NACS adoption occurred as planned, paving the way for broader battery adoption and cleaner logistics. Misses? Redwood's tardy trot and Roadster's vanishing act highlight Tesla's pivot to AI over assembly lines, a classic Musk maneuver that amuses as much as it frustrates. Optimus and robotaxis inched forward under supervision, reminding us innovation's a marathon, not a microwave meal.

Despite delayed timelines, 2025 demonstrated Tesla's inherent ability to deliver sustainable surprises. As we charge into 2026, I'm bullish: More EVs on roads mean quieter cities, cleaner air, and a planet breathing easier. My 2026 forecast is coming soon. What would you like to see in it?