How WWII Put Germany & Japan on a Failure Path for EVs

Some of the biggest car brands in the world are from Germany and Japan; Volkswagen, Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Honda, and Audi to name a few. The auto industries in these countries share a reluctance to embrace electric vehicles. Today, we'll explore why that may be and what the implications could be for these countries and the world.

The auto industry is experiencing more change now than it has since its origin. Electric vehicles, self-driving cars, ride-sharing services, micro-mobility...

China has embraced electric vehicles and is a rising star in the global auto industry. As EVs gain market share, China will gain market share. This means someone has to lose market share, and that someone is likely to be German and Japanese automakers.

Germany and Japan didn't anticipate the transition to EVs; they even fought against it. Their plan was hybrids, diesel, and (eventually) hydrogen fuel cells. Even today, Toyota proclaims that EVs will be "at most 30 percent of the vehicles on the road." 

Why are these two countries aligned in their entrenched automotive thinking? What factors pushed them to maintain the status quo even when the rest of the auto industry sees the disruption that EVs are causing? Why are they unflappably convinced that hydrogen will be the next fuel of choice? 

When a German and Japanese alliance is mentioned, World War II quickly comes to mind. Surprisingly, the origin of this government and cultural direction toward hydrogen (H2) may actually trace back to WWII.  

World War II - Germany

Fuel was a strategic resource during WWII. Historian Anand Toprani describes WWII as "The First War for Oil." Oil was in desperately short supply for the Axis powers.

Fuel shortages directly played a critical role in Germany's defeat in World War II. The scarcity of fuel undermined many of their military operations, disrupted their economies, and led to a decline in civilian morale.

The fuel shortages also had a devastating impact on the Luftwaffe pilot training program. The Allies' bombing of the German oil industry reduced the production of petroleum, oil, and lubricants by more than 90 percent. This resulted in widespread shortages of fuel for German mechanized and motorized divisions.

In 1945, the Wehrmacht was grounded for lack of fuel and their new Tiger & Panther tanks were running on fumes. In the later stages of the war, the Germans were never more than 30 days away from running completely out of fuel.

To address this, Germany created synthetic oil from their abundant coal supply via a process called liquefaction. However, the German synthetic oil infrastructure suffered devastating attacks from Allied bombers. German High Command launched the Ardennes Offensive in mid-December 1944 to capture Allied fuel supplies at Antwerp. The offensive failed to achieve its objectives and burned most of Germany's fuel reserves.

Even after the war, fuel shortages continued and contributed to:

• Industrial output down by a third
• The country's housing stock was reduced by 20%
• Food production was half the level it was before the start of the war
• The Germans' diet became more monotonous, with lots of bread, potatoes, and preserves
  
  

World War II - Japan 

Oil shortages were also a key factor in Japan's military operations during WWII. Japan's combined output of natural and synthetic oil was only 3,459,000 barrels annually. Japan's war needs had to be drawn mainly from reserves.

Japan's oil shortage severely impacted their naval operations. Due to the lack of fuel, some ships were converted into stationary anti-aircraft platforms in port.

The oil shortage precipitated the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. The United States government had prohibited all oil exports to Japan in reaction to the advance of the Japanese military into Southern Indochina.

Fuel Shortage Mentality Lives On

When fuel was such a strategic commodity and shortages were devastating, this will not be soon forgotten. The people who lived through the shortages after the war will bear the mental scars. This means the post-WWII politicians of Germany and Japan wanted energy independence. Without domestic oil supplies in either country, something else was needed. Hydrogen looked promising as the solution.

Hydrogen is a resilient resource that can be generated in many ways, making it harder to cut off supplies. It can be stored in strategic reserves. It appeared to be a promising pathway to energy independence in the latter half of the 20th century. Governments put industry research and development policy and incentives in place to move down this promising path. 

 

Only now, decades later is it apparent that H2 was not the energy independence panacea that it once promised to become. Just as the return on energy models began to make it clear that Hydrogen would not be viable for energy independence, H2 found a new lease on life: carbon-free.

Germany's Hydrogen Plans

Germany began actively supporting hydrogen product development in the 1980s. BMW pioneered hydrogen-powered vehicle prototypes based on the BMW 7 Series. 

The German government formally announced a comprehensive "National Hydrogen Strategy" in June 2020, significantly increasing public funding for hydrogen research and development. 

Germany is investing in hydrogen as a future energy source to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependency on imported fossil fuels. Germany's National Hydrogen Strategy aims to speed up the development of a hydrogen market.

Hydrogen can be used in steel production and other industrial sectors that are hard to electrify.

Germany's government is targeting at least ten gigawatts of electrolysis capacity by 2030.

Water Electrolysis

Japan's Hydrogen Plans 

Japan began its research on hydrogen energy in the 1970s, with the "Sunshine Project." This project included investigations into solar and wind power as well. 

This government-led initiative is considered the starting point for Japan's substantial hydrogen research. Alongside H2 production, Japan began developing hydrogen fuel cell technology in the 1980s.

Japan formally established a national hydrogen strategy in 2017. This strategy solidified their commitment to hydrogen as a key energy component. Japan is investing in hydrogen because the leadership believes it can help the country achieve energy independence and net zero greenhouse gas emissions goals by 2050. Japan's government considers hydrogen an industrial sector that can achieve decarbonization, a stable energy supply, and economic growth.

Japan's Green Growth Strategy aims to increase hydrogen consumption to 3 million tonnes annually by 2030, 12 million tonnes by 2040, and 20 million tonnes annually by 2050. Japan plans to import about 300,000 tons of hydrogen from Australia and Brunei by 2030.

Japan planned to use the 2020 Tokyo Olympics to demonstrate a “hydrogen society”.  They wanted the 2020 games to be remembered as the hydrogen Olympics – a showcase for hydrogen as the clean fuel of the future and to signal to the world that Japan was the vanguard of this movement. The Tokyo Games “will leave a hydrogen society as its legacy,” the Tokyo regional governor promised in 2016.

This is not what came out of the 2020 games. The fleet of hydrogen-powered buses expected to ferry athletes and others was replaced by diesel buses. Despite the lofty goal, the hydrogen vision failed to materialize for predictable reasons including the cost of the fueling stations and vehicles.

Wrapping Up

Decades ago, Japan and Germany started on what seemed to be a reasonable path, hydrogen. The initial impetus was energy independence. As CO2 concerns began to arise, hydrogen promised to also help in this area, sending the two countries further down the hydrogen rabbit hole. 

Electric vehicles will be the vast majority of personal transportation, crossing 50% of new sales in the 2030s decade. EVs will win because; one, the infrastructure is much more scalable; two, the 'fuel' is much more affordable, and; three, the vehicles are much more affordable than fuel cell vehicles. Yet, Japan and Germany are ossified in their hydrogen strategy because they have invested decades of time and billions of dollars. They are stuck in the sunk-cost fallacy of their hydrogen investments.

China has no hydrogen albatross holding them back. As the world transitions to EVs, China will gain auto market share and it will come at the expense of the slow-to-transition automakers.

The Cybercab Trojan Horse

Tesla Cybercab - Image: Tesla

Tesla unveiled the Cybercab at their 10/10 event. It's a 2-seater with a large rear cargo area and no steering wheel or pedals. During the event, Elon Musk announced the Cybercar would be in volume production in 2026.

Musk has a nearly decade-long history of overly optimistic predictions related to self-driving. Cybercab, as revealed, can only be released once autonomy is solved.*

Self-driving is a "long tail" or "march of nines" problem, meaning there are problems you cannot even know exist until you've solved all the prior issues hiding them; rinse & repeat. This makes clearly seeing the finish line impossible. So what happens when the Cybercab production lines are ready in 2026 if autonomy is still a year or two away from being widely deployable? A pivot. That pivot will be a more affordable Tesla vehicle.

Tesla designed the Cybercab to be an autonomous-first vehicle, but it's still a normal vehicle form factor. This contrasts with a vehicle such as the Zoox, which is far from a standard car. By taking this path, Tesla has left the door open to pivot. 

Zoox Autonomous Vehicle

A More Affordable Tesla

Tesla has teased a $25,000 vehicle in the past. Some call this more affordable car Model 2, we call it Model Next. Musk has said that this more affordable vehicle will not be needed. He claims that the Cybercab will make transportation-as-a-service so affordable and convenient that vehicle ownership will be a luxury that most people will not want.

Musk will eventually be right, but it's unlikely this is what the bulk of the world will look like in the (just around the corner) year 2026. This cheap and easy ride-hail vision may be true in a few cities by then, but a few cities will not support the production of millions of Cybercabs annually. Hence, there's a pivot coming in 2026 where the Cybercab platform will be the trojan horse hiding Model Next.

via Reddit user u/Donfatty

Emerging From Trojan Horse
(it's not just Cybercab with a steering wheel)

First, I must acknowledge that designing Model Next is more complex than adding a steering wheel and pedals to the Cybercab and then hitting the production button. Tesla had a project called NV91 to create Model Next. This program was canceled, but it can still be resurrected in a way that leverages much of the Cybercab platform.

What vehicle will emerge from Cybercab's platform? Let's start with the things that will not carry over. The peddles, steering wheel, and side mirrors are the most obvious additions to Model Next. The Cybercab's butterfly door will certainly be gone. These are great for a cab but too expensive for an affordable car. The large wheels of the Cybercab will not be used on a more affordable Model Next. Smaller wheels are cheaper and more efficient; you can expect to see 16" wheels on Model Next. Two seats: Even a tiny car like the Chevy Spark has four seats; you can expect four seats and four doors on Model Next.

The things that will carry over are under the hood (or frunk). The Model Next will share the same RWD drivetrain and battery pack. This means that Model Next will be the slowest vehicle that Tesla makes (assuming it comes out before the Robovan) and with a range of around 250 miles, it will likely be the shortest-range vehicle that Tesla makes at that time. The focus will be on affordability. If you want more range or better zero to 60, you'll need to look at the Model 3, Y, S, or X. 

Although Model Next added a steering wheel, it will not have mechanical linkage. Model Next will be drive-by-wire like the Cybertruck and may even use the same squared-off steering wheel design.

Next on our list is Etherloop, Tesla's innovative system that replaced the CAN bus in the Cybertruck. You can expect Etherloop in all of Tesla's future vehicles (Model Next included) and eventually, in refreshes of the existing lineup.

Timing

Since Tesla does not want to disrupt their current vehicle sales, you can expect them to keep this announcement under wraps as long as possible. The Model Next test mule vehicles will be skinned as Model 3 or Y vehicles so they don't draw too much attention.

If we're lucky, they'll hold an unveiling event in July'26 and begin taking orders that night for deliveries starting later that same year.

Referrals

If you're interested in a Tesla vehicle or solar, you can use my referral code and we'll both get perks (https://ts.la/patrick7819)

* Self-driving being "Solved" is an oversimplification. In this case, it means better than a typical human driver. Improvements will continue well beyond that point.

PGE: Time to Pay More

Earlier this year, I posted an article showing how we optimize our electricity usage so there's no grid load during peak hours. This both reduces stress on the grid and reduces our electricity bill. 

One of the key features of our optimization strategy was the rate schedule that we used. The default rate schedule here is called Basic and it's a flat rate; you pay the same amount per kilowatt-hour during a heat wave as you do on a winter night when there's surplus wind. We've opted out of the Basic plan; instead selecting the time-of-use (ToU) billing schedule. ToU gives us cheaper rates overnight than the basic plan, but it costs more during peak times. The other components of our optimization plan are charging our EVs overnight, plus solar and batteries which reduce or eliminate our electricity usage during any time other than the overnight off-peak rate hours.

We were just informed that our highly optimized plan will be disrupted at the start of 2025. Here's the letter we received message from our utility:

So ToU is going away and being replaced with Time-of-Day (ToD).

Let's look at the ToD plan. 

PGE Time-of-Day Rate Schedule (Nov 2024)

Here are a couple things I liked: 

• It doesn't have multiple seasons like ToU
• Saturday and Sunday are all off-peak; whereas on ToU Saturday is a mix of mid-peak and off-peak

But there's one important thing I don't like: it's more expensive. Both the off-peak and peak prices are higher than ToU. The off-peak price is 63% higher and the peak price is 48% higher. The mid-peak is 25% cheaper. The off-peak increase is the most important factor in our situation (more on this later).

The utility has a tool to run your energy usage data from the last year through each billing option. Here are our results:

As you can see, ToD will cost us about $400 more annually; we'll still save compared to the Basic plan. We spent a lot of money on our solar panels and batteries. Part of the justification for that expense was that we'd save on our bills going forward. With this change, the utility has delayed our breakeven by $400 per year.

ToU and ToD have different time schedules and pricing. Here's a comparison graph of all 3 plans for a weekday.

You can see in the graph above that ToD stays on off-peak for an hour longer in the mornings, and off-peak starts an hour earlier in the evening. 

When last year's data was run through the comparison tool, it examined a usage pattern optimized for ToU. So, it is not surprising that ToU had the best result. I may be able to reoptimize our usage to better fit ToD; to shave some cost off the increase from ToU to ToD. However, since the bulk of our grid usage is during off-peak, there's not much we can optimize. The increase in the off-peak price will directly impact our costs. Whereas, for our use case, the changes in the mid-peak and peak prices are nearly irrelevant.

The utility should encourage off-peak usage. This is when the wind blows in the Columbia Gorge and the industries are not there to soak up this abundance. This is when they have surplus zero-carbon energy on the grid. Raising the off-peak price by 63% is incongruous with the reliable grid and low-carbon energy goals.

I'll certainly post more about this in 2025 after we've been on the ToD plan for a while. A before and after comparison will be interesting to see if the tool's projections were accurate or if we could find some tweak that allows us to optimize in some way that's not immediately obvious. See you then.

The Internet of Energy

The Internet of Energy by Dall-e

Welcome to CarsWithCords.net, where we explore the intersection of cutting-edge technology and the future of energy and transportation. In today's blog post, we dive into the exciting realm of the Internet of Energy (IoE) and the transformative role played by Energy Artificial Intelligence (AI). Buckle up as we navigate the techno-fusion interplay of these revolutionary technology's promises, potential, and challenges.

It has happened before

Before the internet era, media content consumption was a push-model. Centralized sources such as TV broadcasters, print media publications, and movie producers were the providers and they enjoyed an oligopoly environment. The internet, however, disrupted this paradigm; giving rise to the producer/consumer or "prosumer." This shift empowered individuals to create, share, and consume content independently. These cybernauts posted on forums and social media, created blogs, and posted video content on sites like Vimeo and YouTube, rendering traditional gatekeepers less relevant. This drastically changed the type of content available and the way that people consumed content. This is still playing out.

Something similar has just started to emerge for energy. Today, for the most part, our energy system is a centrally-sourced push model ripe for disruption.

Driving the Energy Revolution, The Need for Change

Much like the evolution of content consumption, today's energy system operates primarily on a centrally sourced push model. However, a transformative wave is on the horizon—a wave that parallels the shift witnessed in the world of content creation and consumption. The transition that I call "The Internet of Energy."

A Paradigm Shift in Energy Dynamics

Just as the Internet revolutionized content distribution, the Internet of Energy is poised to revolutionize how we generate, store, and consume energy. The current energy system is akin to the pre-internet push model, where centralized sources dictate the flow of energy. But the winds of change are blowing, and they carry the promise of a prosumer-driven energy landscape.

Homes as Energy Producers: A New Era

Enter solar panels and residential battery systems like the Tesla Powerwall. Residential storage is a beacon of change in the energy domain. Homes are no longer mere consumers; they are becoming active producers of energy. The central sources are fighting to keep the status quo. The changes to California's solar market with NEM 3.0 are an example of them making strides to hold back the tide. California's net metering policy has cut the value of solar energy credits by about 75% for most residents in California. The energy oligopoly is worried about becoming less relevant. 

Energy AI: The Catalyst for Change

Just as the internet democratized content creation, energy AI is set to democratize energy. Energy AI will empower homes to process energy-related tasks locally, reducing dependence on centralized systems. This brings decision-making closer to the end-user, transforming homes into intelligent hubs capable of optimizing energy usage. Solar energy from the rooftop, solar from community hubs, energy storage, virtual power plants, grid sourced... the AI agent will look at all of these and understand the demand on the home and the grid and determine the best source for cost and reliability.

From Centralized Push to Decentralized Prosumer Energy

The push model of centrally sourced energy could give way to a decentralized prosumer energy model. Homes equipped with solar panels and battery systems operate as independent energy producers and consumers. Federated Energy AI (FEAI) ensures that this transition is not just a shift in generation but a holistic optimization of energy consumption patterns. 

FEAI would allow for a real-time peer-to-peer energy change. Allowing people on the same grid to inject and extract energy. These technologies (solar, batteries, FEAI) empower homes to become not just energy consumers but active participants in the energy ecosystem.

Rather than fighting this disruption, utilities could take on a new role. They could become the market-makers for local energy exchange; earning a percentage of every transaction. Rather than fighting the change, embrace it, accelerate it.

Why NEM 3.0 Is The Wrong Direction  

Today in California, there's a lot of rooftop solar. This means that at mid-day, there's a glut of energy being fed into the grid. This is referred to as the duck curve. The response from the utilities has been to fight to reduce the solar energy placed on the grid by removing any advantage to homeowners to export solar (unless they call for it via a VPP). 

The better response would be to slash mid-day prices. This would make energy more affordable for everyone and would cause people to find ways to utilize energy when the cost is lower. While the energy prices are low, people could: pre-cool homes, charge up residential batteries, charge EVs, and run energy-demanding compute activities (AI training, crypto...). New energy uses will be invented if the midday prices drop.

Of course, the utilities don't want to slash prices (even if there's an energy surplus) because that's the primary source of their income and they are for-profit businesses with shareholders that expect to see a profit. The current incentive system needs to be corrected.

Challenges & The Road Ahead

While challenges exist, including security concerns and market hurdles, the journey toward a prosumer-driven Internet of Energy landscape is the natural evolution. 

In conclusion, just as the Internet turned content consumers into creators, the Internet of Energy can turn homes into active contributors to the energy landscape. The future holds the promise of decentralized, prosumer-driven energy systems—stay tuned for a dynamic energy revolution with CarsWithCords.net!

Solar Panel Degradation

As regular readers know, I have tracked the battery degradation of my EVs since purchasing a Nissan Leaf in 2011. Recently, Mark from The Tesla Life asked me how much my solar panels have degraded. I said, they are still producing and I haven't noticed any degradation, but that's not a very analytical answer.

We have production data on both of our solar PV systems going back to the day they were installed. So let's dig into the data and see what it shows.

Our older PV system was installed in 2007 and our newer one in 2015. But how do we go about comparing the results from then to now? Any given day can have weather, cloud shading, wildfire smoke, or other impacts; maybe the panels were dirty, pollen-covered, etc. 

To smooth over some of this, we'll be looking at annual solar production numbers and I'll note any special circumstances that apply to that year. 

Here's the chart of production for our two systems. You can see that production is generally flat for both of them until 2022.

Generally speaking, solar panels degrade about 0.5% per year. Using this rule-of-thumb, our 2007 panels production should be about 92% of their original capacity.

Let's look at the Mr. Sun system since it's older and the degradation is more likely to be visible. 2008 was our first full year of production. We'll use this as our baseline. The 2009 and 2010 years are lower. This could be the degradation we're looking for. I cleaned the panels in the spring of 2012 and production quickly returned to 2008 levels. So that was not degradation.

2016 has a similar dip and then 2017 returns to normal production. 

2021 was surprising in that it was our best production year ever. I would expect some degradation in a 14-year-old system that would prevent it from having its best year ever at that age.  

In 2022, there were more than a dozen wildfires in Oregon. This had a noticeable impact on our solar production. 

In 2023, our production was even lower than 2022 because the solar panels were offline during June and July while we had a new roof was installed.

So there you have it. The degradation signal is lost in the noise of production interference. I guess that's good news since the degradation is not large and obvious. Hopefully, 2024 will be a year where we keep the panels on the roof, no inverters go down, and the sky is not darkened for weeks by wildfires.

Hot Summer 2024 and Virtual Power Plant Activity

We love Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) here at CwC. We've written about them several times. 

In short, a VPP is when the electric utility company can pull energy from hundreds or thousands of residential battery systems when the grid needs extra juice such as a hot summer evening when nearly every air conditioner in the region is running full out. 

Our local utility, Portland General Electric, has had 7 VPP events (and counting) this summer. Six VPP events showed up as credits on our most recent bill. We have 3 Powerwall 2s configured to allow the utility to extract up to 80% of the charge from our batteries. That means the utility can extract about 32 kWh for each event. At $1.70 per kWh that the utility pays during a VPP, we earn about $50 for participating in a VPP event.

You can see how much we earned for each event here: 

July and August are usually months that have big electricity bills because of all of the AC use. However, now with VPP events, we have a couple hundred dollars in credit on our account. 

If you want Powerwalls for your house to join a VPP in your region, you can use my referral code and we'll both get perks (https://ts.la/patrick7819).

Ω

Tesla Model Y - 1 Year Review, Battery Degradation

In the summer of 2023, we purchased a new Tesla Model Y Long Range. This is our third Tesla and our fifth EV. For context, we've owned a Model X, Model 3, and now a Model Y. Now that we've had the Y for a year, let's see how it's gone. How's it working out? What issues has it had? How's the range... We'll cover all this and more.

Our Model Y after a Shower with its Winter Tires

Why Long Range

We opted for the long-range, all-wheel drive variant with the free paint color, midnight silver metallic. The long-range allows us to keep the battery at a medium state of charge most days. With a fuller charge, the LR variant allows us to drive from our Portland suburb home to the Mount Hood ski areas or the Oregon coast and back without stopping to charge. Roadside charging while on a trek is not too bad, but nothing is as convenient as charging up in your own garage while you sleep. If you can afford it, the extra range is a luxury all on its own. 

Accessories

We installed a roof rack system on our Y, and it didn't significantly impact the range.

 

We also bought snow tires for the winter months.

Trip Stats

During this first year of ownership, we put almost 9,000 miles on the odometer. 

Our road trips included a 170-mile round trip to Astoria, Oregon; several 180-mile round trips to Corvallis, Oregon; a 150-mile round trip to Cannon Beach, and several 160-mile round trips to Mount Hood ski areas. 

On one of our road trips, we made it home with a 5% charge left in the battery. The trip planner was accurate and we arrived with a state-of-charge just as it predicted. There was no anxiety because there were multiple places we could have stopped if the energy meter was dipping too low.  

 

We generally stop every hundred miles or so to refresh our caffeinated beverages and stretch our legs. Our longest single leg was 2 hours 3 min, it was 89 miles and used 20.51 kWh. That's 230 Wh/Mile or 91% efficiency.

In November of 2023, we drove in 33°F and in July of 2024 (last month), we drove in 112°F with the cabin at a comfortable temp in both cases.

 
Our highest elevation was 4,648 feet on Mount Hood and our lowest elevation was just 4 feet above sea level in Astoria.

Firmware and FSD

During this first year of ownership, we received 16 firmware updates including several FSD updates, culminating in firmware v2024.21.5. The updates are fun; they add games, new features, and bug fixes to the vehicle. The new UI with a large view of the vehicle when parked was a nice improvement.

 

We transferred full self-driving (FSD) from our 2018 Model 3 to our Model Y. Our Model Y was among the first to have FSD HW4. When we took delivery, the FSD software didn't support HW4 yet. However, one of our first firmware updates enabled FSD. 

 

Many of the 16 firmware updates came along with FSD updates too. We started with FSD v11.3.6, then multiple v11.4 builds, then we jumped to v12.3 flavors and now we're on v12.5.1.1.  FSD is getting good enough that I can see, with continued iteration (and, initially at least, remote human support), how it will be possible to have eyes-off, hands-off driving and/or Robotaxis by our predicted timeline of August 2027.

 

Charging

During this 1 year of ownership, we've charged our Model Y 200 times. All but 2 of these charges were at home in our garage. The first of the not-at-home charges was at my in-laws' house to test our old mobile charger on their RV outlet (NEMA 14-50) with our new vehicle to see if they were compatible. We had a couple of glitches, but eventually got it to work. If you're considering buying a used mobile connector, you'll want to read this. 

The second of our not-at-home charging sessions was at the (then) newly opened V4 Supercharger installation in Wilsonville, OR. There are 8 V4 stalls there and I wanted to, one, confirm that Supercharging worked on our vehicle, and two, see how fast the V4 stations were. This was the first V4 location in my region. Apparently, I was not the only one who wanted to try out the new V4, there was a line of cars. It would have been easy to continue south and charge up in Woodburn, OR instead, but we were 3rd in the queue and the line moved quickly. We stayed and soon, we were charging. The charging session was 39 minutes and we charged from 31% to 80% SoC. Looking at it in MPH of range added, we averaged 250 MPH and had a max of 403 MPH.

V4 Superchargers can charge at a rate of 250kW. We topped out at 99kW and averaged 66kW. I was expecting a V4 station to charge faster than this, but it was a warm day and, as I said, there was a line of cars, so the system was not getting a chance to cool off between sessions. Or maybe they were still waiting for permits to go over 100kW. I may try another session now that the novelty of this location has faded.

Battery Degradation

Okay, saving the best for last, here's the reason you came here, the battery degradation data. Soon after purchasing our Y, we signed up for TeslaFi to track our vehicle statistics. One of the things it tracks is the range degradation/battery health. Generally, the first 2 or 3 years are the worst degradation for Li-ion batteries, after that the degradation slows. 

 

As you can see in the graph above, we've had a small amount (1.9%) of degradation. That's good news since the first year is expected to be the worst. This is a rate of 0.22% per thousand miles traveled. For comparison, in the first year of ownership of our 2016 Model X, it had a battery degradation of 2.7%.

If you have a newish EV, share your battery degradation. I'd like to see how it compares.

Referrals 

If you're interested in a Model Y, you can use my referral code and we'll both get perks (https://ts.la/patrick7819).

If you want to know your Tesla's highest elevation or longest road trip (mine are easy to beat), you can use my TeslaFi referral to get all kinds of cool stats. If you use a referral, you get an extra month free and so do I.

Heat Waves and Virtual Power Plants

Like many parts of the world, we're having a heat wave; multiple days with highs over 100°F. Luckily we have air conditioning and, during these high temps, it's been running 14+ hours per day. During a heatwave, as you can imagine, there are millions of AC units sucking down kilowatts and pumping cool air into homes and businesses. All of this AC use puts a strain on the grid and there have been some outages. We were recently at a friends house in our neighborhood for a Sunday cookout when they lost power for about an hour.

Luckily, the utility was able to restore the power quickly. An hour is not too bad; the house didn't get too hot and nothing in the freezer/refrigerator went bad. As you can see in the image below, as I write this, my local utility has over three thousand customers without power. 

It's impressive that, even during this heatwave, they have better than 99.7% service reliability. But, if you're one of the 0.28% without functional electricity for fans and AC, it doesn't feel impressive. Checking the outages the next day and there were fewer than 100 customers affected, so more than 3000 were back online in less than (maybe much less than) 24 hours.

So how do you help reduce the load on the grid and prevent outages when there's a heat wave and everyone wants to run their AC at the same time? Our utility has several demand mitigation schemes and, this week, they are using them all. 

Here are the programs: 

Demand Response 

The three residential programs our utility has are Peak Rebates, Smart Thermostat, and Virtual Power Plant (VPP). They use these programs when demand is expected to be high or what they refer to as an "Energy Rush Hour." 

Peak Rebates

With is program, the utility notifies you the day before and asks you to reduce your energy use during a 3 or 4 hour window the next day. You then receive rebates based on how much your usage is below your typical usage during that period. You get paid for "Negawatts." The rate is $1 per kWh that you don't use compared to your usual load for that time. So if that's when you usually do dishes, laundry, or charge your EV, moving these to other times of the day could give you some payback and reduce grid stress for everyone.

Smart Thermostat Energy Rush Hour

With this program you can let the utility have the ability to tweak your air conditioner settings. They pre-cool your house before the peak hours so your AC doesn't have to run as much during the high energy demand period. For any month that you participate in a Rush Hour event, you earn $25. I like this program. With the pre-cooling your home is nice and chilled and you get paid for it. 

Virtual Power Plant (VPP) 

Last on our list is my favorite, and the one I want to spend the most time covering, the VPP. Echoing the Smart Thermostat naming convention, our utility calls this the Smart Battery Program. To participate in this program, you must have an approved residential energy storage battery such as Tesla Powerwalls. When participating, you allow the utility to discharge your battery when the grid needs the energy most. In return, they pay you $1.70 for each kWh dispatched. You can select your participation level at 30, 50, or 80 percent of the nominal storage capacity of your pack. We're participating at the 80% level.

For the recent heat wave, they dispatched our battery 4 times.

Here's one of the dispatches: 

As you can see, the battery is being dispatched at a rate of 10.8 kW. This rate allowed them discharge 80% of the battery capacity during the 3 hour event. During the 4 events they were able to extract a total of 129.6 kWh. At $1.70 per kWh, that's $220. 

As you can see in the chart above, we used 57 kWh and only exported 32 kWh. The point isn't about how much we used but WHEN we used it. As you can see by the tall green bar, we charged the battery at off peak times before 6AM. Then during the Rush Hour event, from 5PM till 8PM, we were exporting solar and battery energy to the grid (shown by the green and yellow in that window of time). 

The Results

Combining the Energy Rush reward and the VPP payment, we earned $245 for our July electricity bill. We'll likely have a negative bill this month. Not bad for our household, but how'd the local grid over all do during these events? 

As you can see in the graph above, grid load was reduced by 109 Megawatts when the Rush Hour started. These programs make a difference and can be a determining factor in keeping the lights on or not.

Tesla Vehicle Production (Q2'24)

We've been anticipating the year Tesla breaks through the two million vehicle annual production mark for some time.

We first asked the question in 2022. At that time, Giga-Austin and Giga-Berlin were newly opened and had a long way to go to ramp their production to high volume, so the answer was clearly 'No' for that year.   

2023 had a chance of being that milestone 2M year. Our estimates for 2023 ranged from 1.86M to 2.18M. Tesla's actual 2023 production was 1,845,985. This was very close to the low-end of our estimate, but again below the big 2M mark. Macro economic, specifically high interest rates, depressed sales in the second half of 2023 and continued to pull-down the first half of 2024. This is still an open issue for the second half of 2024. 

Tesla has reported production and sales for Q2'24, so now we've got the numbers for the 1H'24 and it looks a lot like 2023. 

Production	2023	2024	Y/Y Delta
Q1	440,808	433,371	-2%
Q2	479,700	410,831	-14%

So far, 2024 is not looking like it will be the magic 2M year either; however, it still has a chance. Giga-Berlin is expanding (despite the astroturf protests) and there are signs that interest rates will be reduced. I want to add a little context around this Q2 result. Yes, it is lower than Q2 last year, but Q2 last year was their best quarter ever and this Q2 is their 3rd best sales quarter ever, so it's far from a failure. In fact, it beat the street's estimates and this is one of the reasons the stock has rallied.  

When we initially estimated 2024 production (here), we had a range of 2.0M to 2.7M. The high end of that range is now off the table. If we stick with the Q3 and Q4 estimates that we currently have, that brings the year in at 1.91 million, just 90 thousand shy of the big 2M milestone.

However, our current estimates for Q3 and Q4'24 are now the more conservative 466k and 490k, respectively (shown in the graph below). That brings a total of 1.83M for this year, about flat to the 1.85 of last year. This result of flat to 2023 would be inline with the "between two growth waves" description that Musk used in the Q2 investors call. 

I must admit that I'd be highly disappointed if Tesla produced or delivered fewer vehicles in 2024 compared to 2023 and I think many other investors would be too. So, I expect Tesla to pull a few demand levers in Q4 to make sure they exceed last year's results, coming in at 1.9M for 2024, but I still have my fingers crossed that maybe, just maybe, they hit 2 million.

End Dependence Day: July 4th