Lidar or Camera, Which Sensor Will Win for Autonomous Vehicles?

 Autonomous Driving: A Revolution in Motion

Imagine a world where getting around is as easy as tapping an app, no matter who you are. When autonomous vehicles hit the mainstream, they’ll rewrite the rules of personal mobility. For the blind or elderly, who often face the isolation of being homebound, self-driving cars promise freedom. No longer will a lack of driving ability mean missing doctor’s appointments, social gatherings, or simple errands. These vehicles will be like loyal chauffeurs, ready to whisk anyone, anywhere, safely and reliably. This isn’t just convenience; it’s a lifeline to independence.

Tesla wants to be a primary transportation provider with their Robotaxi service, launching in June of this year. What's different about Tesla's implementation is that it is camera-based and could scale very quickly. Unlike competitors leaning on pricey, specialized sensors like LiDAR, Tesla bets on common cameras as its primary eyes. Vehicles with LiDAR and trunk-sized datacenters might work in select test zones, but they’re like gourmet dishes only available at a few elite restaurants. Tesla’s approach is the food truck of autonomy: affordable, adaptable, and ready to serve the masses. Scalability matters if we want self-driving cars everywhere, not just in elite regions.

I received some feedback on the last article saying that LiDAR was a must-have for safe autonomous driving, but let’s debunk that. LiDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) uses laser pulses to map surroundings. It is very useful in many applications, but it also has serious blind spots. LiDAR cannot see the color of traffic lights or detect when another car’s brake lights are on, both of which are critical for safe driving. LiDAR struggles in bad weather, as rain, snow, or fog scatter the laser pulses, clouding its view. Plus, LiDAR is expensive, driving up costs for vehicles; affordability is required for a mass-scale solution.

LiDAR-based systems use cameras to catch what the lasers miss, like traffic light colors. That's right, all autonomous vehicles (LiDAR or not) use cameras. However, having both LiDAR and camera input leads to the sensor fusion problem. Sensor fusion is the artful science of blending data from multiple sensors. Combining these different sensor streams creates a problem: What happens when sensors disagree? If one sensor claims it’s raining while another warns that you're heading towards a brick wall at 70 MPH, which do you trust? This clash can confuse the driving AI, causing the AI to make poor or dangerous decisions. Tesla’s camera-only approach sidesteps this by providing one consistent data stream to the AI’s path planning and decision-making processes.

Autonomous vehicle (AV) cameras often sense beyond the human-visible light spectrum, which spans ~400 to 700 nanometers. Many AV cameras also detect shortwave length infrared light, from 700 up to 1100 nanometers, allowing them to see in the dark for improved night vision. This gives AV cameras an edge over human eyes. At night, these cameras excel, capturing clear images in near darkness.

Because AV cameras cover a spectrum of light frequencies, including visible and shortwave infrared, they have an advantage over LiDAR's single laser frequency. The broader spectrum of the cameras allows them to capture diverse visual data. In a way, cameras are already receiving multispectrum data that's "pre-fused" to a single video stream. LiDAR, on the other hand, operates at a fixed frequency (typically 905 nm or 1550 nm). LiDAR excels at depth mapping but misses color and texture details.

The question is, will Tesla's camera-based FSD be safe enough? Crashes will happen at some point. Every AV program of note has had incidents. A fatal crash ended Uber's self-driving program. We'll see if Tesla can navigate this rubric.

Autonomous driving is poised to transform lives, especially for those sidelined by mobility challenges. Tesla’s scalable, camera-driven solution is like that trusty food truck, bringing freedom to every corner, not just the fancy neighborhoods. By avoiding LiDAR’s limitations and the ambiguity of sensor fusion, Tesla is cooking up a future where self-driving cars will be as common as smartphones. This isn’t just about getting from A to B; it’s about giving everyone a ticket to ride, no matter their circumstances.

Disclosure: I am long Tesla

Tesla’s Robotaxi Launch: A Game-Changer for Mobility and Safety

Image by OpenAI

Tesla’s robotaxi service is gearing up for its June 2025 launch in Austin, Texas, setting the stage for a new era in transportation. This isn’t a full-throttle rollout but a deliberate “crawl, walk, run” approach, ensuring safety and reliability. The initial launch will be for invitation-only riders, starting with a small fleet of 10 to 20 Model Y vehicles in a geo-fenced area of Austin, Texas. How fast things will move to walk and run depends on how this service goes over the initial weeks and months. Tesla plans to expand to a second city (likely in California or Texas) by late 2025. In 2026, customer-owned cars and Cybercabs will be added to the network. This phased strategy allows for continuous iteration, a hallmark of Tesla’s innovation flywheel that drives rapid improvement in its products and services.

Tesla’s history of fast iteration is evident in its product evolution. Take the Model S: the 2025 version boasts superior performance with quicker acceleration, a range exceeding 400 miles, and a price point far more affordable than the 2012 original, which started at over $100,000 with a range of 265 miles. Similarly, the Powerwall has seen dramatic advancements. Powerwall 3, released in 2024, offers higher energy capacity and better grid integration compared to the first version from 2015, making Powerwall 3 a cornerstone of home energy solutions. This innovation flywheel will propel the robotaxi service, with each software update refining the ride-hailing features in the app and the Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology that drives the cars.

           

The robotaxi launch could redefine urban mobility by leveraging the innovation flywheel to deliver transportation that's electrified, safer, and more accessible for all.

For individuals with limited mobility, such as the elderly or those with disabilities, this service will be a game-changer. Over 50 million Americans face mobility challenges and cannot drive, often relying on expensive or inconsistent alternatives. Tesla’s robotaxis will provide on-demand transportation, empowering people with newfound independence. Whether getting to medical appointments, the grocery store, or visiting loved ones, the service promises to bridge a critical gap, aligning with Tesla’s mission to make sustainable transport accessible to all.

The backbone of this initiative is Tesla’s FSD technology, which is pivotal for convenience and safety. Human error accounts for 94% of U.S. traffic incidents, leading to over 40,000 deaths annually. FSD aims to drastically reduce this number. While the current supervised FSD achieves about 500 miles between critical disengagements, Tesla’s data-driven approach is rapidly improving its neural networks. With its unblinking multi-directional eyes, FSD will be an order of magnitude safer than human drivers, potentially saving countless lives by minimizing crashes. The robotaxi fleet will also help reduce emissions, which again saves lives and improves quality of life.

Tesla’s journey with robotaxis won’t be without challenges. Regulatory hurdles and public skepticism loom large, especially given past delays in FSD deployment.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) requires an exemption for driverless vehicles such as the Cybercab. The permit process can take over a year, as seen with Nuro’s efforts. While Tesla has received a preliminary transportation charter-party carrier permit in California as of March 2025, further approvals from the California Department of Motor Vehicles and Public Utilities Commission are still needed. Given these factors and Tesla’s track record of delays (every initial vehicle release other than Model Y has been late, such as the Cybertruck’s late 2023 delivery after its 2019 unveiling), the Cybercab’s release could realistically slip into 2027 or later.

However, the company’s track record of iterative improvement through its innovation flywheel offers hope for this service. As Tesla collects real-world data from its initial Austin rides, each iteration will make the service safer and more reliable. For those who can’t drive and for a future with fewer auto-related deaths, Tesla’s robotaxi launch is a monumental step toward a safer, cleaner, more inclusive world of transportation.

fin

Disclosure: I am long Tesla

To the Moon and Back Again 138,562kWh

image by OpenAI

On November 8th, 2024, our home solar system crossed a milestone. On that day, the solar panels on our roof produced their 138,562nd kilowatt-hour of energy.

What's so special about 138,562 kWh?

A 2018 Tesla Model 3 uses 29 kWh to drive 100 miles (newer ones are likely better). The Moon is about 238900 miles from Earth. Given this efficiency and distance, it would take 69,281 kWh to drive to Luna. Double this amount, and you could make the return trip. 

Obviously, you cannot drive to the Moon, but at least one car is in space.

For one more fun data point, this is enough energy to drive around the equator more than 19 times.

Tesla Model Y Winter Range

Image by OpenAI

How far can a Tesla drive in the winter? 

We've had our Model Y for two winters, and I've been tracking its driving efficiency year-round since we got it. I've heard it said that EVs have less range in the winter, and I wanted to see what our real-world data shows. 

Winter driving is generally less efficient. The cold air is thicker, energy is used to warm the cabin, and the extra traction of winter tires comes with a higher rolling resistance.

We get some snow here each winter, and we like to go to the mountain occasionally, so we have a set of winter tires. Tires can have a big impact on range, so here's the tire data and other relevant specs: 

Vehicle: 2023 Tesla Model Y Long Range All-Wheel Drive (AWD), an all-electric, mid-size crossover SUV.

All-season Tires: Continental ProContact RX 255/45 R19 104W XL. These tires came on our Y when we picked it up, and we drive on them from mid-March through October.

All-season Wheels: 19" Gemini Wheels, standard on the 2023 Tesla Model Y Long Range AWD, dark grey with plastic covers for improved efficiency. 

Winter Tires: Michelin X-Ice Snow 255 /45 R19 104H XL BSW. These are premium winter tires designed for EVs, crossovers, and SUVs. They're studless and rely on tread and compound for grip, rather than metal studs. They're built to handle severe winter conditions like heavy snow, icy roads, and sub-zero temperatures, while still providing decent dry-road performance. This model is a step up from its predecessor, the X-Ice Xi3, with better hydroplaning resistance and snow traction. We use these tires from November through mid-March.

Winter Wheels: Vision Cross II 19" X8 5-114.30 38 BKMTXX
These are cast aluminum wheels. They are slightly heavier than the OEM Gemini wheels and don't have aero covers. However, the matte black goes well with the modern chrome delete look of Tesla vehicles.

2023 Model Y LR	All-Season	Winter
Wheels	Gemini	Vision Cross II
Tires	Continental ProContact RX	Michelin X-Ice Snow
Miles Driven	7,457	6,182
Ave Temp	71F	50F
Wh/mile	254	278
Rated Range	330 miles	301 miles
Measured Real Range	302 miles	276 miles
Winter Penality		8.6%

The winter range loss is lower than I expected. The tires are not as efficient, the wheels are not as light, there are no aero covers, the heater has to run... and yet, there's only a ~9% range penalty. I was expecting it to be about 30%. 

One of the reasons this winter penalty is low is that Tesla vehicles have a very efficient heat pump. The heat pump includes a liquid-cooled condenser loop and an 8-way octovalve. This enables 3 cooling modes and 12 heating modes, including special modes for temperatures below -10°C. The heat pump uses a compressor that operates on 400 volts and draws power directly from the traction pack.

It's important to note that this data is for my NW Oregon driving. If the seasonal temps are different in your region, the results could be dramatically different.

Referral

If you're interested in a Tesla vehicle or solar, you can use my referral code and we'll both get perks (https://ts.la/patrick7819)

Musk & His Haters Be Damned, I'm Not Selling My Tesla

In Defense of Tesla Owners 

Look, I get it 

Every time Elon Musk tweets something wild (like comparing hard-working civil servants to genocidal gas chamber workers, taking a chainsaw to social security benefits, suggesting we colonize Mars with only crypto-paying technocrat libertarians, or whatever his latest unhinged rant is), my inbox lights up. “You still driving that Tesla? You cool with that guy?” 

Let’s pump the brakes on this. We've asked the question, "Can you Love Tesla and Hate Musk?" The answer is, was, and will continue to be "Yes." Owning a Tesla doesn’t mean I support Musk or his politics. I didn’t sign up for a cult when I bought this car. I signed up for a sweet ride that doesn’t guzzle gas. That’s it. Full stop.

Mission  

Tesla’s whole deal is ditching fossil fuels for cleaner transportation and renewable energy. This didn’t suddenly become irrelevant because Musk decided to play DOGE lord. The planet’s still cooking, oil still has its greasy fingers in our energy policies, and I’d rather not choke on smog, thanks. Musk’s politics might’ve taken a hard right into Crazytown, but the physics of climate change didn’t RSVP to that party. Tesla’s mission matters, and it’s bigger than one guy’s midlife crisis meltdown. 

           

My hatred of Musk's antics is not greater than my desire to mitigate climate change.

Musk is not Tesla 

Newsflash: Elon isn’t even the whole Tesla enchilada. He’s just one of 125,000 people who have an active Tesla work badge. Sure, he’s the loudmouth at the top, but he only owns about 13% of the company. That means if enough shareholders vote to remove him, he's gone. So when you’re side-eyeing me for rolling up in my Model Y, just know I’m not exactly bankrolling his next X tirade about the woke mind virus, free speech, or whatever.  

           

I’m supporting a massive team of Tesla engineers, designers, and workers, many of whom roll their eyes at Musk as much as you do.

Vandalism Isn't The Answer

Apparently, some righteous warriors think keying a Tesla or smashing a window is a noble protest against Musk. Real genius move, punish the car owner who’s just trying to get to work without burning dinosaur juice. And, where do you think that damaged Tesla is likely to go for service? To a Tesla service center, obviously. And that means that Tesla will receive revenue for that transaction (even if it's from the owner's insurance company). So, your vandalism is actually a move of financial support for Tesla. I know that's not what you wanted. So chill and try not to force your ideals onto other people through terrorism. That's the sort of fascist action that might cause people of your ilk to get upset. If you want to peacefully protest at a Tesla store, go for it, but the line clearly stops at destruction of property.

Here's another idea: if you're thinking about vandalizing a Tesla, maybe you should talk to some owners about why they drive it, their goals, and maybe you'd see that you have many things in common with them. And guess what, even if you don't, it doesn't mean that you get to damage their property.

Personal Finances are Personal

You don't get to tell me I "have to" get a new car. Cars aren’t cheap. I didn’t drop a small fortune on this thing just to trade it in because the CEO said something spicy or some punk with a grudge and a spray can thinks "swasticar" is a super clever insult. Whether you’re cruising in a Cybertruck that looks like a Halo prop, a sensible Model 3, or even a Prius with a “Coexist” bumper sticker, most of us can’t afford to swap vehicles every time the political winds shift. And even if you’re some trust-fund baller who buys cars like I buy socks, that’s a dumb way to virtue signal.

The Alternatives?

Here’s another fun fact: if you dug into the personal lives and politics of most Fortune 500 CEOs, you’d probably need a shower and a stiff drink afterward. These greedy, out-of-touch, maybe even low-key psychopathic people aren’t exactly BFF material. Musk isn’t special in that regard; he’s just the one with a megaphone and zero filter. The rest of them are quietly yachting with shady billionaires while we’re none the wiser.

Nothing Compares To Tesla

But here’s the clincher, the real reason I’m not selling my Tesla: I freaking love this thing. The tech is bananas. Full Self-Driving is (finally) getting really good. The charging network is unmatched. Try finding another EV with Tesla's range, performance, cost, and a network with even half as many locations—it doesn't exist (at least not in the US). I’m not ditching an EV that I love for some clunky alternative just because Elon’s out there cosplaying Tony Stark with a dose of conspiracy theorist or because some edgelord thinks I’m the enemy because of my ride. I don't have to defend my purchase with an "I bought this before Elon went crazy" bumper sticker (but I understand if you want to). My reasons are my own and I would still buy the same Tesla vehicle today. Sorry, not sorry haters; this Tesla’s staying in my garage. In a few years, perhaps there'll be a worthy competitor to consider.

Tesla Shedding Early Adopters Could Accelerate Move To EVs

Elon Musk has undeniably become a divisive figure in recent years. Once hailed as the nerd king of innovation behind Tesla and Space X, he’s now a lightning rod, putting half the population into a frothy rage with every unfiltered X post. Musk’s wrecking ball actions with DOGE and his infamous inauguration salute have endeared him to some while alienating others, creating a stark divide among his followers and critics. This polarization extends beyond his personal brand to the companies he leads, particularly Tesla. Musk's persona has shifted from that of a future-focused visionary to a right-wing culture warrior. Love him or loathe him, he’s become as divisive as a Thanksgiving dinner with your unvaccinated uncle.

Many of Tesla's early supporters wonder where the Obama-era liberal Musk has gone. Where's the man who believed climate change was a bigger threat than wokeness. Musk's shift has caused some of Tesla’s early adopters to race away from the company faster than a Roadster's zero-to-sixty. These initial buyers—often tech-savvy, and environmentally conscious—were drawn to Tesla’s promise of cutting-edge electric vehicles (EVs) and a sustainable future. They were once Tesla’s ride-or-die crew. However, Musk’s increasingly polarizing behavior has led some loyalists to reconsider their allegiance. Reports of long-time Tesla owners trading in their Model S or Model 3 vehicles for alternatives from brands like Rivian, Lucid, or even legacy automakers (gasp!) signal a subtle but significant exodus. For these early adopters, Tesla’s allure has waned.

Meanwhile, the legacy automakers—Ford, GM, Volkswagen, the whole gas-guzzling gang—are flailing like fish on a dock trying to pivot to EVs. These dinosaurs spent a century refining the internal combustion engine. Now they're scrambling to retool factories, retrain workers, and revamp supply chains for battery-powered vehicles. Navigating disruption is not in their DNA. Their factories are creaking, their unions are confused, they don't have software expertise, and their EV game is stuck in neutral. The shift is proving costly and complex, with production delays and tepid consumer uptake of their offerings hampering progress.

Models like the Ford Mustang Mach-E or GM’s Silverado EV show promise, but these companies struggle to match Tesla’s scale and profitability in the EV space. As we've pointed out, Tesla's biggest advantage was that it didn't have to compete against, well, Tesla. Legacy auto's EV hesitation has created a gap between ambition and execution, leaving them vulnerable (especially to Chinese brands) in a rapidly electrifying market. It’s like watching your grandpa try a TikTok dance—cringe, awkward, and a little late to the party.

Ironically, the early adopters abandoning Tesla might be the golden ticket the wheezing car giants need to jumpstart their EV sales. These buyers are typically affluent, environmentally aware, and willing to embrace new technology—traits that align perfectly with the demographic legacy brands must court to gain traction in the EV space. These Tesla defectors value innovation and sustainability over brand loyalty and are not particularly price-sensitive. Legacy brands need these smug trailblazers to strut into dealerships and say, “Sure, I’ll take your overpriced electric box, at least it’s not a Tesla.” If Ford or GM can stop tripping over their own spark plugs, they might court this crowd and finally get some EV traction.

But don’t cry for Tesla just yet. 

Tesla’s greatest strength lies in its ability to convert skeptics—those who previously dismissed EVs as impractical or unappealing. Tesla is a gateway for drivers who never imagined ditching gasoline. Musk's swing to the right might have a few folks on that side of the aisle considering an EV. These are the folks who thought EVs were for granola-crunching hippies. Tesla’s not just selling cars; it’s converting heathens, one tire-squealing burnout at a time.

With compelling new lower-priced products like the anticipated $25,000 compact EV (Redwood / Model Next), Tesla is poised to attract a new wave of buyers, drawing in consumers who prioritize affordability. If the Cybercab launch this summer is successful, Tesla won't be able to build them fast enough.

Together, Tesla's shedding of early adopters and the appeal to the right might be a one-two punch that helps put more EVs with more nameplates on the road, removing more tailpipes and their emissions from the global fleet. The atmosphere doesn't care why someone stopped driving a vehicle with a belching tailpipe; only that they did.

disclaimer: I'm long TSLA.

Tesla 2025 - What to Expect

Self-driving cars, autonomous robots, industrial-scale batteries, mass market EVS ... the future is on the horizon and Tesla is a big part of making this happen.

Tesla 2024

Before we look forward, let's look at what 2024 brought from Tesla. 

The biggest 2024 event for Tesla was the Cybercab (and Robovan) reveal. According to Tesla, the Cybercab will cost less than $30k, have a 200-mile range, be fully autonomous, use induction charging, and have a battery capacity of 35-36 kWh.

Other Tesla notable 2024 milestones included: 

• Project Highland, the refreshed Model 3 started deliveries in the US.
• Cybertruck deliveries ramped and the non-foundation series deliveries began.
• Cybertruck is the best-selling electric pick-up, beating the Ford F-150 Lightning and Rivian R1T.
• Model Y is the best-selling EV in the world and in many regions, it was the best-selling vehicle overall. 
• In December '24, Tesla celebrated the production of its 7 millionth vehicle globally. That's a lot of petrol demand reduction! 
• Powerwall and Megapack Deployment: Tesla Energy had a blockbuster year, with over 800,000 Powerwalls installed and significant growth in Megapack deployments, hitting over 22 GWh in operation globally.
• Supercharger Network Expansion: Tesla expanded its Supercharger network by adding over 11,500 new stalls, representing a 19% year-over-year growth.
• 4680 battery cell production goes into high gear: By June 2024, Tesla had produced its 50 millionth 4680 battery cell at Giga Texas. On September 14, 2024, Tesla announced that they had produced the 100 millionth 4680 battery cell across all its factories.
• The Tesla Semi has expanded beyond Pepsi Co. with DHL, Walmart, Costco, and others receiving their first units. More on this below. 

Now let's look at 2025.

Tesla: What's Coming in 2025

Redwood 

First on the list for 2025 has to be Redwood. The Tesla Redwood is planned for production in mid-2025. It is described as a compact crossover but specific details, appearance, and features are still speculative. This is unusual for Tesla; vehicle unveilings usually happen long before production starts (see Roadster below).  

Redwood Design: The Redwood has been hinted at as possibly resembling a smaller version of the Model Y or adopting a "Cyberhatch" design, drawing inspiration from the Cybertruck or Cybercab's aesthetics. This could mean a more angular, futuristic look than the 3 or Y.

Redwood Design Speculation by Grok

Redwood Price: It is anticipated to be Tesla's most affordable model, with a potential starting price around $25,000, aiming to make electric vehicles more accessible to a broader market.

Battery: Redwood is expected to use a 54 kWh LFP battery. This balances cost efficiency while maintaining an acceptable 225+ range suitable for urban and suburban use.

Manufacturing: Redwood will be built on a new platform called NV9X, which focuses on reducing production costs and improving efficiency in manufacturing. This includes methods like Tesla's advanced gigacasting.

Autonomous Driving: Redwood could be the first vehicle to incorporate Tesla's next-gen AI5 (HW5) FSD (Full Self-Driving) computer.

Interior: Specifics about the interior have not been released but you can expect it to follow Tesla's minimalist interior with a large central touchscreen. For an affordable vehicle, don't expect to see a second-row screen. 

Performance: With the focus on cost, specific performance metrics like acceleration or top speed aren't likely to be impressive compared to the rest of Tesla's line-up, but track mode is not the focus of this vehicle.

Production Plans: Tesla has initiated discussions with suppliers, indicating an eventual weekly production volume of 10,000 vehicles. Production will likely start at Giga Texas or Shanghai before expanding to other locations.

Tesla Roadster 

Our first peek at Roadster was so long ago (December 2017). In 2024, other than a tweet or two from Elon, we didn't see much about the Roadster. 2025 should be different. The Tesla Roadster has been massively redesigned since that 2017 unveiling event. That means we'll need another unveiling event for the redesign. I expect to see this in August of 2025. If we're lucky, we'll get to see it levitate momentarily. As Tesla often does, this could be combined with other events such as an AI Day or product updates. Maybe Redwood and Roadster will share the stage this summer.

Juniper

Before I even posted this, Juniper information leaked. This is the Model Y refresh, and launch series deliveries are slated to start in March of '25 in the US and China with other countries quickly following. 

Juniper offers several improvements over the existing Y, including 3% range improvements, lighter weight, power-fold (and unfold) rear seats, power frunk, ambient lighting, front-bumper camera, second-row screen, better suspension, and a larger frunk.

This looks like a nice update to the best-selling EV in the world.

Robotaxi Service Launch

2025 is likely the year we'll see the first testing of a Robotaxi service. These will use Model Y primarily, with Cybercab and Redwood coming later. Austin or Vegas are the likely test markets. Initially, these vehicles will be 100% remotely monitored. The remote supervisor will be able to update routes and resolve issues. Any time a robotaxi needs a supervisor intervention, this will be an opportunity to provide training data for the next iteration of FSD. 

As FSD improves, the number of interventions will decrease and supervisors will be able to monitor more vehicles simultaneously, as each vehicle will need less support. This will allow the fleet to scale up.

Tesla Semi 

Tesla began delivering the electric Semi truck to customers in December 2022, with Pepsi Co. receiving the first units. 

Pepsi initially ordered 100 trucks, which Tesla completed in 2024. Pepsi operates the Semis in Modesto, Sacramento, and Fresno. They are used for both regional long-haul and local routes.

 

In 2024, Tesla began testing and delivering the Semi to other clients, including: 

• DHL 
• Walmart 
• Martin Brower 
• Costco 
• Sysco 
• US Foods 

Semi related things that you can expect to see from Tesla in 2025: 

• Establish a charging network for the Semi starting in the southwestern US
• Make the Semi available to test partners in several countries
• Finalize the engineering of the Semi for high-volume production
• Start construction on a Semi truck factory at Giga Nevada

Tesla Semi full-volume production is scheduled for March 2026.

Optimus 

In 2024, Tesla will build three to five thousand Optimus robots. These will be deployed in Tesla factories and with select development partners to allow for testing and feedback. 

The bots will, initially, be nearly 100% teleoperation. With time, teleoperation will move to merely human supervision. As Optimus learns more skills, much like the initial Robotaxis, human supervision will be weaned as tasks are improved. Each time a human does need to intervene this will be used as a learning opportunity and feed into the AI dojo.

Maybe we'll see Optimus showing off a few new tricks at the Redwood event.

NACS Club

The plug war is over, and Tesla won. In 2023, all the major automakers pledged to support NACS in the North American market. This year, most of them will get access to at least a portion of the Supercharger network. We'll also see adapters for the CCS vehicles. Hyundai, Kia, Genesis, BMW, Jaguar, Land Rover, and Lucid have all been added to the coming soon list for Supercharger access.

2025 is also the year we'll see non-Tesla vehicles coming to market with native NACS (SAE J3400) ports.

50s Diner - Rock-n-Charge

We've been hearing about this Tesla diner for some time now. I was hoping for a 2024 opening, but that didn't happen. 

What is it? Tesla is creating a place where you can pull in, plug in, and have food delivered to your car while charging. The property has been purchased, permits have been issued, and construction is underway. 2025 absolutely should be the year this jewel opens for business. You can look forward to a big Tesla party here this year.

Model S and X

An avid Tesla follower friend has been predicting the end of the Model S and X for several years. The production volumes are not significant to Tesla's bottom line. To add more fuel to his argument, in 2024, Model S and X US sales were down 31% and 20%, respectively. Is he finally right, and will this be the year they are discontinued?

I have argued that these vehicles are important halo vehicles for Tesla. They are aspirational with the incredible performance of the S and the falcon-wing doors of the X. This brings people to the brand. The S and X get them in the door, even if most of them buy a more practical 3 or Y. You can think of these as part of Tesla's marketing budget. And, Tesla can try out new technologies in these vehicles; better to work out the kinks in a lower-volume vehicle. As Tesla adds more vehicles, they could consider ending production of these vehicles, but they will likely survive 2025.

I would like to see revamps of both vehicles with more lush interiors, improved noise-dampening, smoother suspension, and a price increase. The refresh would include re-adding the turn signal stalk (as Juniper did), ambient lighting (Highlander style), power everything (seats, frunk, doors...), and a front bumper camera. Bring back free Supercharging for life and free premium connectivity on these vehicles; these are premium features. Grok integration features should premier on the S and X, then roll out 3 to 6 months later to the rest of the fleet. Under the hood, this refresh would transform the S and X into a modern Tesla with a 48V aux battery, Etherloop, and steer-by-wire. This last item would also make it easier for Tesla to produce righthand drive models, which is something that they don't currently produce for the S and X. 

Conclusion

As with every year since its inception, 2025 will be an exciting one for Tesla. This could be the year we see the first Tesla driving around (legally) without a person in the driver's seat. We'll see a new vehicle or two, Optimus and FSD will learn new tricks, and energy storage will continue to grow as our grid evolves. 

Tesla 2025 Production Estimates

As regular readers know, panelists of The Tesla Life estimate the number of vehicles that Tesla will produce each year. All of our 2024 estimates were optimistic.

Several factors reduced Tesla's sales and production in the first half of 2024. Will 2025 be a 20 - 30% growth year (as Musk stated in the Oct '24 earnings call) or a roughly flat year. Significant growth rate will be on hold until a new lower-cost model (Redwood) is in high-volume production. So, the 50% growth that we've seen in other years, is off the table for 2025. Even if a new model is introduced this year, it's unlikely production can ramp to high volume this year.

2024 had a production volume of 1,773,443 vehicles. Applying the center of the guidance (25% growth) would result in 2,216,804 vehicles.

Given all of this, I have generated estimates via several trend analysis methods:

Method	Estimate
Linear	2,012,000
Exponential	2,080,000
Poly4	1,712,000
QoQ	1,903,550
QoY	1,924,723
YoY	1,723,789
Ave of Above	1,892,677

That's six estimates ranging from 1.7 million to 2.08 million. None of these estimates reach the 2.2M guidance level. If Redwood comes out in the first half of the year, is a hit, and ramps quickly then these estimates may be shooting under the mark.

The Tesla Life estimation rule is that you can only submit one guess. You cannot submit a range or condition (e.g., my guess is X, but if interest rates drop it's X+20%).

Which guestimate should I go with? Given that for the last two years, I've really been looking forward to Tesla hitting the 2 million mark and my estimates have been overly optimistic, I'm inclined to select a number that's less than 2M. Then I'm in a win-win situation; if they do produce 2M+, I'll be happy they achieved that milestone and if they don't hit 2M, then perhaps my guess will be the winning one in The Tesla Life's game.

If you want to submit your guess to the game, tweet it at @TheTeslaLife before January 29th, 2025.

Tesla Solar Year in Review

Tesla just released their Recharge 2024 summaries for energy customers. Here's how we scored. 

There's no doubt that we save money with solar. We avoid paying peak rates nearly completely. Additionally, the VPP events have paid us hundreds of dollars. At year's end, we have nearly $200 worth of credit on our electricity bill. 

This is our 4th year with Powerwalls and our 13th year with solar.  

12.7 MWh, it's not quite 1.21 GW(h), but still an impressive amount. At 200 Wh per mile, that's enough to drive an EV 63,500 miles; that's more than 100,000 km.  

Our Powerwall came in very handy this year. We used them for StormWatch events, Virtual Power Plant (VPP) events, as well as time shifting our solar usage to maximize the value of our solar production. 

5.4 MWh cycled through our batteries. That's 666 and 2/3rds cycles of our 3 Powerwalls in just 1 year. We're maximizing their use with daily solar changes and nightly off-peak grid charges.  

It's not surprising that our highest energy usage throughout the day is at 5AM. We have our cars set to be charged up by 6AM. Our off-peak electricity time is from 10PM until 6AM. The Powerwalls charge up at 10PM and the cars charge automatically such that they finish just before the rates increase. 

We were off-grid for nearly all the time which wasn't off-peak. On a typical day, at 6AM when the rates increase, the Powerwalls power our home until the sun rises. Then the sun and solar take over, powering our home and recharging the batteries from the morning usage. Then as the sunsets, the batteries again phase in and take over until the rates drop to off-peak at 10PM.

I'm not sure what the Archetypes are but we ranked as a Solar Punk, whatever that means. I think they're just going for some fun labels with Trickster, Punk, and the other rankings. 

Below is our summary. I'm surprised to see that we're in the top 19%. We're in Oregon; certainly, California, Texas, Arizona, and many other places get far more solar raining down on them than we do here in rainy NW Oregon. 

Referrals

If you're interested in a Tesla vehicle or solar, you can use my referral code and we'll both get perks (https://ts.la/patrick7819)

How WWII Put Germany & Japan on a Failure Path for EVs

Some of the biggest car brands in the world are from Germany and Japan; Volkswagen, Toyota, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, Honda, and Audi to name a few. The auto industries in these countries share a reluctance to embrace electric vehicles. Today, we'll explore why that may be and what the implications could be for these countries and the world.

The auto industry is experiencing more change now than it has since its origin. Electric vehicles, self-driving cars, ride-sharing services, micro-mobility...

China has embraced electric vehicles and is a rising star in the global auto industry. As EVs gain market share, China will gain market share. This means someone has to lose market share, and that someone is likely to be German and Japanese automakers.

Germany and Japan didn't anticipate the transition to EVs; they even fought against it. Their plan was hybrids, diesel, and (eventually) hydrogen fuel cells. Even today, Toyota proclaims that EVs will be "at most 30 percent of the vehicles on the road." 

Why are these two countries aligned in their entrenched automotive thinking? What factors pushed them to maintain the status quo even when the rest of the auto industry sees the disruption that EVs are causing? Why are they unflappably convinced that hydrogen will be the next fuel of choice? 

When a German and Japanese alliance is mentioned, World War II quickly comes to mind. Surprisingly, the origin of this government and cultural direction toward hydrogen (H2) may actually trace back to WWII.  

World War II - Germany

Fuel was a strategic resource during WWII. Historian Anand Toprani describes WWII as "The First War for Oil." Oil was in desperately short supply for the Axis powers.

Fuel shortages directly played a critical role in Germany's defeat in World War II. The scarcity of fuel undermined many of their military operations, disrupted their economies, and led to a decline in civilian morale.

The fuel shortages also had a devastating impact on the Luftwaffe pilot training program. The Allies' bombing of the German oil industry reduced the production of petroleum, oil, and lubricants by more than 90 percent. This resulted in widespread shortages of fuel for German mechanized and motorized divisions.

In 1945, the Wehrmacht was grounded for lack of fuel and their new Tiger & Panther tanks were running on fumes. In the later stages of the war, the Germans were never more than 30 days away from running completely out of fuel.

To address this, Germany created synthetic oil from their abundant coal supply via a process called liquefaction. However, the German synthetic oil infrastructure suffered devastating attacks from Allied bombers. German High Command launched the Ardennes Offensive in mid-December 1944 to capture Allied fuel supplies at Antwerp. The offensive failed to achieve its objectives and burned most of Germany's fuel reserves.

Even after the war, fuel shortages continued and contributed to:

• Industrial output down by a third
• The country's housing stock was reduced by 20%
• Food production was half the level it was before the start of the war
• The Germans' diet became more monotonous, primarily bread, potatoes, and preserves
  
  

World War II - Japan 

Oil shortages were also a key factor in Japan's military operations during WWII. Japan's combined output of natural and synthetic oil was only 3,459,000 barrels annually. Japan's war needs had to be drawn mainly from reserves.

Japan's oil shortage severely impacted their naval operations. Due to the lack of fuel, some ships were converted into stationary anti-aircraft platforms in port.

The oil shortage precipitated the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941. The United States government had prohibited all oil exports to Japan in reaction to the advance of the Japanese military into Southern Indochina.

Fuel Shortage Mentality Lives On

When fuel was such a strategic commodity and shortages were devastating, this will not be soon forgotten. The people who lived through the shortages after the war will bear the mental scars. This means the post-WWII politicians of Germany and Japan wanted energy independence. Without domestic oil supplies in either country, something else was needed. Hydrogen looked promising as the solution.

Hydrogen is a resilient resource that can be generated in many ways, making it harder to cut off supplies. It can also be stored in strategic reserves. In the latter half of the 20th century, hydrogen appeared to be a promising pathway to energy independence. Governments implemented industry research and development policies and incentives to move down this promising path. 

 

Only now, decades later is it apparent that H2 was not the energy independence panacea that it once promised to become. Just as the return on energy models began to make it clear that Hydrogen would not be viable for energy independence, H2 found a new lease on life: carbon-free.

Germany's Hydrogen Plans

Germany began actively supporting hydrogen product development in the 1980s. BMW pioneered hydrogen-powered vehicle prototypes based on the BMW 7 Series. 

The German government formally announced a comprehensive "National Hydrogen Strategy" in June 2020, significantly increasing public funding for hydrogen research and development. 

Germany is investing in hydrogen as a future energy source to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependency on imported fossil fuels. Germany's National Hydrogen Strategy aims to speed up the development of a hydrogen market.

Hydrogen can be used in steel production and other industrial sectors that are hard to electrify.

Germany's government is targeting at least ten gigawatts of electrolysis capacity by 2030.

Water Electrolysis

Japan's Hydrogen Plans 

Japan began its research on hydrogen energy in the 1970s, with the "Sunshine Project." This project included investigations into solar and wind power as well. 

This government-led initiative is considered the starting point for Japan's substantial hydrogen research. In the 1980s, Japan began developing hydrogen fuel cell technology alongside H2 production.

Japan formally established a national hydrogen strategy in 2017. This strategy solidified their commitment to hydrogen as a key energy component. Japan is investing in hydrogen because the leadership believes it can help the country achieve energy independence and net zero greenhouse gas emissions goals by 2050. Japan's government considers hydrogen an industrial sector that can achieve decarbonization, a stable energy supply, and economic growth.

Japan's Green Growth Strategy aims to increase hydrogen consumption to 3 million tonnes annually by 2030, 12 million tonnes by 2040, and 20 million tonnes annually by 2050. Japan plans to import about 300,000 tons of hydrogen from Australia and Brunei by 2030.

Japan planned to use the 2020 Tokyo Olympics to demonstrate a “hydrogen society”.  They wanted the 2020 games to be remembered as the hydrogen Olympics – a showcase for hydrogen as the clean fuel of the future and to signal to the world that Japan was the vanguard of this movement. The Tokyo Games “will leave a hydrogen society as its legacy,” the Tokyo regional governor promised in 2016.

This is not what came out of the 2020 games. The fleet of hydrogen-powered buses expected to ferry athletes and others was replaced by diesel buses. Despite the lofty goal, the hydrogen vision failed to materialize for predictable reasons including the cost of the fueling stations and vehicles.

Wrapping Up

Decades ago, Japan and Germany started on what seemed to be a reasonable path, hydrogen. The initial impetus was energy independence. As CO2 concerns began to arise, hydrogen promised to also help in this area, sending the two countries further down the hydrogen rabbit hole. 

Electric vehicles will be the vast majority of personal transportation, crossing 50% of new sales in the 2030s decade. EVs will win because; one, the infrastructure is much more scalable; two, the 'fuel' is much more affordable, and; three, the vehicles are much more affordable than fuel cell vehicles. Yet, Japan and Germany are ossified in their hydrogen strategy because they have invested decades of time and billions of dollars. They are stuck in the sunk-cost fallacy of their hydrogen investments.

China has no hydrogen albatross holding them back. As the world transitions to EVs, China will gain auto market share and it will come at the expense of the slow-to-transition automakers.