EVs Must Pay Their Fair Share

Proposed $250 Federal EV Registration Fee: Fair Share or Political Ploy?

Two guys stroll up to a bar. One’s clean-cut, suit pressed, looking like he just stepped out of a cologne ad, while the other guy’s a mess, wearing stained sweats, reeking of smoke and body odor, dirt smudged on his face, and a cigarette dangling from his face. The doorman eyes them both, smirks, and says to the clean guy, “That’ll be $25.” Then he turns to the mess and goes, “You’re good for $10.” The clean guy sputters, “What?! Why am I paying two and a half times more?” The doorman chuckles, “Buddy, you’re too clean, you’ll make everyone else in the bar look bad. We charge extra for that!”

Well, it looks like the federal government has hired this doorman. A new federal proposal imposes a $250 annual registration fee on electric vehicles (EVs), arguing they use roads and should contribute to maintenance like gas-powered cars. The logic seems clear: roads need funding, and EVs (like all vehicles) use the roads, highways, and byways. But is $250 fair, or is it a move to hinder EV adoption? Let’s dive in.

Gas-powered cars fund roads via the federal gas tax, set at 18.4¢ per gallon. The average US driver covers about 13,500 miles annually, and a typical gas car gets roughly 25 miles per gallon. After a little number crunching, this means the average driver pays $99.36 in federal gas tax per year. Compared to the proposed $250 EV fee, EV owners would pay over 2.5 times more than gas car owners for the same road use.

Vehicle Type	Annual Mileage	Fuel/Tax Type	Annual Cost
Gas Car	13,500 miles	Gas Tax (18.4 cents/gal, 25 mpg)	$99.36
Electric Vehicle	13,500 miles	Proposed EV Fee	$250.00

What’s a fair share? Since EVs use roads similarly to gas cars, their contribution should align. The $99.36 gas tax benchmark shows the $250 fee is excessive. A fair EV fee would match gas car contributions, around $100 annually, possibly adjusted for mileage. This ensures equity without penalizing EV drivers.

If either vehicle type should pay more, gas cars should be the ones to pay additional fees because of all the externalities they hoist onto society. EVs deliver community benefits that gas cars can’t match. EVs produce no tailpipe emissions, reducing air pollution and health costs tied to smog and respiratory issues. Studies estimate gas-vehicle-related pollution costs the US billions annually in healthcare and environmental damage. EVs help curb this. Additionally, funds spent on EV “fuel” (e.g., electricity) stays local, bolstering utility companies and renewable energy investments. In contrast, gas money often flows to oil companies and foreign markets, siphoning money from local economies. For all of these reasons and more, EVs deserve fair treatment, not a steep fee. EVs are the hometown heroes.

I didn't buy an EV as an elaborate (and expensive) scheme to avoid road maintenance taxes, but that doesn't mean i want to overpay either.

The $250 fee reeks of political maneuvering to slow EV adoption. It burdens clean, efficient vehicles while dismissing their societal benefits. It is not a fee because the roads need funding; it's a fee for making gas cars look bad. It's charging the clean guy at the bar extra just for looking good.

If this is the right way to raise funds, then let's apply it to every vehicle. Cancel the federal gas tax and make everyone pay the same amount to use the same roads.  

Policymakers should focus on building an infrastructure for the current century, rather than the 1900s. Impeding progress will only put us behind. Sure, EVs must pay their share, but charging them far more than gas cars is neither fair nor forward-looking. It’s a roadblock to a cleaner future. It’s like charging joggers more for park trails if they _don’t_ litter. It’s absurd! EVs need to chip in, but this fee is a pie-in-the-face of progress. Let’s not let gas-guzzling dinosaurs and their cronies drag us back to the Jurassic era.

Waymo is the Hydrogen Solution of Ride Hail

Image by OpenAI

Both hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and Waymo’s autonomous ride-hailing service are technical marvels, yet both stumble on the steep slope of scalability, especially when costs come into play.

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, such as Toyota’s Mirai and Hyundai’s Nexo, power electric motors through a clever process: hydrogen stored in high-pressure tanks reacts with oxygen in a fuel cell, generating electricity to power the motor and drive the vehicle, with water vapor as the only byproduct. A full H2 tank is about 5 kilograms, and this delivers a 300 to 400-mile range. Refueling takes just five minutes. Technically, it works beautifully. The Mirai cruises highways and city streets, matching gasoline cars for refueling convenience and outshining them for emissions.

So why aren't we all driving zero-emission H2 vehicles today? Price and scalability are the roadblocks. Building a hydrogen refueling station costs $1 to $2 million, and the US has only about 50, mostly clustered in California. Compare that to 120,000 gas stations or 50,000 EV chargers across the country. Then there’s the fuel. The cost to fill up a fuel cell car in California is around $16.50 per kilogram. A Toyota Mirai with a 5.6kg tank would cost around $92 to fill up. However, Toyota (and others) offer free fuel for the first three years to help bridge the price gap between hydrogen and gasoline. Assuming owners had to pay for the H2, let's compare the cost per mile. For a Toyota Mirai, it's around $0.31 per mile. Compare that to $0.12 per mile of a gas car and H2 as fuel is like paying $9 per gallon for gas. No one wants to do that. This explains why they have to give away years of free fuel just to sell (lease) the things.

Scaling FCVs to millions of users would require thousands of stations and cheaper hydrogen, demanding billions in investment. High costs keep FCVs a niche player, not a mass-market contender.

Now, let’s shift gears to Waymo, Google's Alphabet’s self-driving transportation service. Waymo’s fleet of modified Chrysler Pacificas and Jaguar I-Paces uses LiDAR, radar, and cameras to navigate without a driver. AI processes a 360-degree view, dodging pedestrians and traffic with precision. It works. Waymo’s vehicles log thousands of miles in cities like Phoenix and San Francisco, safely delivering passengers. But, like hydrogen FCVs, scalability is a struggle. A Waymo vehicle with its sensor suite and compute costs around $100,000, though bulk production might trim that. Operating costs pile up fast: maintenance, software updates, and remote human oversight push per-mile costs to $2 to $3, dwarfing the ~$1 of a human-driven Uber ride. Waymo has raised $5.6 billion, yet profitability lags. Each ride is subsidized, and scaling to millions of vehicles means building charging stations, service hubs, and data centers, costing billions more. The tech is solid, but the price tag for widespread adoption rivals the challenge of hydrogen’s infrastructure.

Both Waymo and hydrogen FCVs prove the possibility of the technology. FCVs glide along, emitting only water, while Waymo’s cars steer through chaos without a human hand. Yet both hit the same scalability wall: cost. Hydrogen’s refueling stations and fuel production demand massive upfront investment, just as Waymo’s sensors, operations, and infrastructure do. Neither technology is cheap enough to flood the market. FCVs need a vast network and affordable hydrogen; Waymo needs leaner tech and lower operating costs. At CarsWithCords.net, we admire the ingenuity, but the path to scalability looks daunting. For now, both remain bold experiments, waiting for a cost breakthrough to drive them mainstream.

Lidar or Camera, Which Sensor Will Win for Autonomous Vehicles?

 Autonomous Driving: A Revolution in Motion

Imagine a world where getting around is as easy as tapping an app, no matter who you are. When autonomous vehicles hit the mainstream, they’ll rewrite the rules of personal mobility. For the blind or elderly, who often face the isolation of being homebound, self-driving cars promise freedom. No longer will a lack of driving ability mean missing doctor’s appointments, social gatherings, or simple errands. These vehicles will be like loyal chauffeurs, ready to whisk anyone, anywhere, safely and reliably. This isn’t just convenience; it’s a lifeline to independence.

Tesla wants to be a primary transportation provider with their Robotaxi service, launching in June of this year. What's different about Tesla's implementation is that it is camera-based and could scale very quickly. Unlike competitors leaning on pricey, specialized sensors like LiDAR, Tesla bets on common cameras as its primary eyes. Vehicles with LiDAR and trunk-sized datacenters might work in select test zones, but they’re like gourmet dishes only available at a few elite restaurants. Tesla’s approach is the food truck of autonomy: affordable, adaptable, and ready to serve the masses. Scalability matters if we want self-driving cars everywhere, not just in elite regions.

I received some feedback on the last article saying that LiDAR was a must-have for safe autonomous driving, but let’s debunk that. LiDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) uses laser pulses to map surroundings. It is very useful in many applications, but it also has serious blind spots. LiDAR cannot see the color of traffic lights or detect when another car’s brake lights are on, both of which are critical for safe driving. LiDAR struggles in bad weather, as rain, snow, or fog scatter the laser pulses, clouding its view. Plus, LiDAR is expensive, driving up costs for vehicles; affordability is required for a mass-scale solution.

LiDAR-based systems use cameras to catch what the lasers miss, like traffic light colors. That's right, all autonomous vehicles (LiDAR or not) use cameras. However, having both LiDAR and camera input leads to the sensor fusion problem. Sensor fusion is the artful science of blending data from multiple sensors. Combining these different sensor streams creates a problem: What happens when sensors disagree? If one sensor claims it’s raining while another warns that you're heading towards a brick wall at 70 MPH, which do you trust? This clash can confuse the driving AI, causing the AI to make poor or dangerous decisions. Tesla’s camera-only approach sidesteps this by providing one consistent data stream to the AI’s path planning and decision-making processes.

Autonomous vehicle (AV) cameras often sense beyond the human-visible light spectrum, which spans ~400 to 700 nanometers. Many AV cameras also detect shortwave length infrared light, from 700 up to 1100 nanometers, allowing them to see in the dark for improved night vision. This gives AV cameras an edge over human eyes. At night, these cameras excel, capturing clear images in near darkness.

Because AV cameras cover a spectrum of light frequencies, including visible and shortwave infrared, they have an advantage over LiDAR's single laser frequency. The broader spectrum of the cameras allows them to capture diverse visual data. In a way, cameras are already receiving multispectrum data that's "pre-fused" to a single video stream. LiDAR, on the other hand, operates at a fixed frequency (typically 905 nm or 1550 nm). LiDAR excels at depth mapping but misses color and texture details.

The question is, will Tesla's camera-based FSD be safe enough? Crashes will happen at some point. Every AV program of note has had incidents. A fatal crash ended Uber's self-driving program. We'll see if Tesla can navigate this rubric.

Autonomous driving is poised to transform lives, especially for those sidelined by mobility challenges. Tesla’s scalable, camera-driven solution is like that trusty food truck, bringing freedom to every corner, not just the fancy neighborhoods. By avoiding LiDAR’s limitations and the ambiguity of sensor fusion, Tesla is cooking up a future where self-driving cars will be as common as smartphones. This isn’t just about getting from A to B; it’s about giving everyone a ticket to ride, no matter their circumstances.

Disclosure: I am long Tesla

Tesla’s Robotaxi Launch: A Game-Changer for Mobility and Safety

Image by OpenAI

Tesla’s robotaxi service is gearing up for its June 2025 launch in Austin, Texas, setting the stage for a new era in transportation. This isn’t a full-throttle rollout but a deliberate “crawl, walk, run” approach, ensuring safety and reliability. The initial launch will be for invitation-only riders, starting with a small fleet of 10 to 20 Model Y vehicles in a geo-fenced area of Austin, Texas. How fast things will move to walk and run depends on how this service goes over the initial weeks and months. Tesla plans to expand to a second city (likely in California or Texas) by late 2025. In 2026, customer-owned cars and Cybercabs will be added to the network. This phased strategy allows for continuous iteration, a hallmark of Tesla’s innovation flywheel that drives rapid improvement in its products and services.

Tesla’s history of fast iteration is evident in its product evolution. Take the Model S: the 2025 version boasts superior performance with quicker acceleration, a range exceeding 400 miles, and a price point far more affordable than the 2012 original, which started at over $100,000 with a range of 265 miles. Similarly, the Powerwall has seen dramatic advancements. Powerwall 3, released in 2024, offers higher energy capacity and better grid integration compared to the first version from 2015, making Powerwall 3 a cornerstone of home energy solutions. This innovation flywheel will propel the robotaxi service, with each software update refining the ride-hailing features in the app and the Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology that drives the cars.

           

The robotaxi launch could redefine urban mobility by leveraging the innovation flywheel to deliver transportation that's electrified, safer, and more accessible for all.

For individuals with limited mobility, such as the elderly or those with disabilities, this service will be a game-changer. Over 50 million Americans face mobility challenges and cannot drive, often relying on expensive or inconsistent alternatives. Tesla’s robotaxis will provide on-demand transportation, empowering people with newfound independence. Whether getting to medical appointments, the grocery store, or visiting loved ones, the service promises to bridge a critical gap, aligning with Tesla’s mission to make sustainable transport accessible to all.

The backbone of this initiative is Tesla’s FSD technology, which is pivotal for convenience and safety. Human error accounts for 94% of U.S. traffic incidents, leading to over 40,000 deaths annually. FSD aims to drastically reduce this number. While the current supervised FSD achieves about 500 miles between critical disengagements, Tesla’s data-driven approach is rapidly improving its neural networks. With its unblinking multi-directional eyes, FSD will be an order of magnitude safer than human drivers, potentially saving countless lives by minimizing crashes. The robotaxi fleet will also help reduce emissions, which again saves lives and improves quality of life.

Tesla’s journey with robotaxis won’t be without challenges. Regulatory hurdles and public skepticism loom large, especially given past delays in FSD deployment.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) requires an exemption for driverless vehicles such as the Cybercab. The permit process can take over a year, as seen with Nuro’s efforts. While Tesla has received a preliminary transportation charter-party carrier permit in California as of March 2025, further approvals from the California Department of Motor Vehicles and Public Utilities Commission are still needed. Given these factors and Tesla’s track record of delays (every initial vehicle release other than Model Y has been late, such as the Cybertruck’s late 2023 delivery after its 2019 unveiling), the Cybercab’s release could realistically slip into 2027 or later.

However, the company’s track record of iterative improvement through its innovation flywheel offers hope for this service. As Tesla collects real-world data from its initial Austin rides, each iteration will make the service safer and more reliable. For those who can’t drive and for a future with fewer auto-related deaths, Tesla’s robotaxi launch is a monumental step toward a safer, cleaner, more inclusive world of transportation.

fin

Disclosure: I am long Tesla

To the Moon and Back Again 138,562kWh

image by OpenAI

On November 8th, 2024, our home solar system crossed a milestone. On that day, the solar panels on our roof produced their 138,562nd kilowatt-hour of energy.

What's so special about 138,562 kWh?

A 2018 Tesla Model 3 uses 29 kWh to drive 100 miles (newer ones are likely better). The Moon is about 238900 miles from Earth. Given this efficiency and distance, it would take 69,281 kWh to drive to Luna. Double this amount, and you could make the return trip. 

Obviously, you cannot drive to the Moon, but at least one car is in space.

For one more fun data point, this is enough energy to drive around the equator more than 19 times.

Tesla Model Y Winter Range

Image by OpenAI

How far can a Tesla drive in the winter? 

We've had our Model Y for two winters, and I've been tracking its driving efficiency year-round since we got it. I've heard it said that EVs have less range in the winter, and I wanted to see what our real-world data shows. 

Winter driving is generally less efficient. The cold air is thicker, energy is used to warm the cabin, and the extra traction of winter tires comes with a higher rolling resistance.

We get some snow here each winter, and we like to go to the mountain occasionally, so we have a set of winter tires. Tires can have a big impact on range, so here's the tire data and other relevant specs: 

Vehicle: 2023 Tesla Model Y Long Range All-Wheel Drive (AWD), an all-electric, mid-size crossover SUV.

All-season Tires: Continental ProContact RX 255/45 R19 104W XL. These tires came on our Y when we picked it up, and we drive on them from mid-March through October.

All-season Wheels: 19" Gemini Wheels, standard on the 2023 Tesla Model Y Long Range AWD, dark grey with plastic covers for improved efficiency. 

Winter Tires: Michelin X-Ice Snow 255 /45 R19 104H XL BSW. These are premium winter tires designed for EVs, crossovers, and SUVs. They're studless and rely on tread and compound for grip, rather than metal studs. They're built to handle severe winter conditions like heavy snow, icy roads, and sub-zero temperatures, while still providing decent dry-road performance. This model is a step up from its predecessor, the X-Ice Xi3, with better hydroplaning resistance and snow traction. We use these tires from November through mid-March.

Winter Wheels: Vision Cross II 19" X8 5-114.30 38 BKMTXX
These are cast aluminum wheels. They are slightly heavier than the OEM Gemini wheels and don't have aero covers. However, the matte black goes well with the modern chrome delete look of Tesla vehicles.

2023 Model Y LR	All-Season	Winter
Wheels	Gemini	Vision Cross II
Tires	Continental ProContact RX	Michelin X-Ice Snow
Miles Driven	7,457	6,182
Ave Temp	71F	50F
Wh/mile	254	278
Rated Range	330 miles	301 miles
Measured Real Range	302 miles	276 miles
Winter Penality		8.6%

The winter range loss is lower than I expected. The tires are not as efficient, the wheels are not as light, there are no aero covers, the heater has to run... and yet, there's only a ~9% range penalty. I was expecting it to be about 30%. 

One of the reasons this winter penalty is low is that Tesla vehicles have a very efficient heat pump. The heat pump includes a liquid-cooled condenser loop and an 8-way octovalve. This enables 3 cooling modes and 12 heating modes, including special modes for temperatures below -10°C. The heat pump uses a compressor that operates on 400 volts and draws power directly from the traction pack.

It's important to note that this data is for my NW Oregon driving. If the seasonal temps are different in your region, the results could be dramatically different.

Referral

If you're interested in a Tesla vehicle or solar, you can use my referral code and we'll both get perks (https://ts.la/patrick7819)

Musk & His Haters Be Damned, I'm Not Selling My Tesla

In Defense of Tesla Owners 

Look, I get it 

Every time Elon Musk tweets something wild (like comparing hard-working civil servants to genocidal gas chamber workers, taking a chainsaw to social security benefits, suggesting we colonize Mars with only crypto-paying technocrat libertarians, or whatever his latest unhinged rant is), my inbox lights up. “You still driving that Tesla? You cool with that guy?” 

Let’s pump the brakes on this. We've asked the question, "Can you Love Tesla and Hate Musk?" The answer is, was, and will continue to be "Yes." Owning a Tesla doesn’t mean I support Musk or his politics. I didn’t sign up for a cult when I bought this car. I signed up for a sweet ride that doesn’t guzzle gas. That’s it. Full stop.

Mission  

Tesla’s whole deal is ditching fossil fuels for cleaner transportation and renewable energy. This didn’t suddenly become irrelevant because Musk decided to play DOGE lord. The planet’s still cooking, oil still has its greasy fingers in our energy policies, and I’d rather not choke on smog, thanks. Musk’s politics might’ve taken a hard right into Crazytown, but the physics of climate change didn’t RSVP to that party. Tesla’s mission matters, and it’s bigger than one guy’s midlife crisis meltdown. 

           

My hatred of Musk's antics is not greater than my desire to mitigate climate change.

Musk is not Tesla 

Newsflash: Elon isn’t even the whole Tesla enchilada. He’s just one of 125,000 people who have an active Tesla work badge. Sure, he’s the loudmouth at the top, but he only owns about 13% of the company. That means if enough shareholders vote to remove him, he's gone. So when you’re side-eyeing me for rolling up in my Model Y, just know I’m not exactly bankrolling his next X tirade about the woke mind virus, free speech, or whatever.  

           

I’m supporting a massive team of Tesla engineers, designers, and workers, many of whom roll their eyes at Musk as much as you do.

Vandalism Isn't The Answer

Apparently, some righteous warriors think keying a Tesla or smashing a window is a noble protest against Musk. Real genius move, punish the car owner who’s just trying to get to work without burning dinosaur juice. And, where do you think that damaged Tesla is likely to go for service? To a Tesla service center, obviously. And that means that Tesla will receive revenue for that transaction (even if it's from the owner's insurance company). So, your vandalism is actually a move of financial support for Tesla. I know that's not what you wanted. So chill and try not to force your ideals onto other people through terrorism. That's the sort of fascist action that might cause people of your ilk to get upset. If you want to peacefully protest at a Tesla store, go for it, but the line clearly stops at destruction of property.

Here's another idea: if you're thinking about vandalizing a Tesla, maybe you should talk to some owners about why they drive it, their goals, and maybe you'd see that you have many things in common with them. And guess what, even if you don't, it doesn't mean that you get to damage their property.

Personal Finances are Personal

You don't get to tell me I "have to" get a new car. Cars aren’t cheap. I didn’t drop a small fortune on this thing just to trade it in because the CEO said something spicy or some punk with a grudge and a spray can thinks "swasticar" is a super clever insult. Whether you’re cruising in a Cybertruck that looks like a Halo prop, a sensible Model 3, or even a Prius with a “Coexist” bumper sticker, most of us can’t afford to swap vehicles every time the political winds shift. And even if you’re some trust-fund baller who buys cars like I buy socks, that’s a dumb way to virtue signal.

The Alternatives?

Here’s another fun fact: if you dug into the personal lives and politics of most Fortune 500 CEOs, you’d probably need a shower and a stiff drink afterward. These greedy, out-of-touch, maybe even low-key psychopathic people aren’t exactly BFF material. Musk isn’t special in that regard; he’s just the one with a megaphone and zero filter. The rest of them are quietly yachting with shady billionaires while we’re none the wiser.

Nothing Compares To Tesla

But here’s the clincher, the real reason I’m not selling my Tesla: I freaking love this thing. The tech is bananas. Full Self-Driving is (finally) getting really good. The charging network is unmatched. Try finding another EV with Tesla's range, performance, cost, and a network with even half as many locations—it doesn't exist (at least not in the US). I’m not ditching an EV that I love for some clunky alternative just because Elon’s out there cosplaying Tony Stark with a dose of conspiracy theorist or because some edgelord thinks I’m the enemy because of my ride. I don't have to defend my purchase with an "I bought this before Elon went crazy" bumper sticker (but I understand if you want to). My reasons are my own and I would still buy the same Tesla vehicle today. Sorry, not sorry haters; this Tesla’s staying in my garage. In a few years, perhaps there'll be a worthy competitor to consider.

Tesla Shedding Early Adopters Could Accelerate Move To EVs

Elon Musk has undeniably become a divisive figure in recent years. Once hailed as the nerd king of innovation behind Tesla and Space X, he’s now a lightning rod, putting half the population into a frothy rage with every unfiltered X post. Musk’s wrecking ball actions with DOGE and his infamous inauguration salute have endeared him to some while alienating others, creating a stark divide among his followers and critics. This polarization extends beyond his personal brand to the companies he leads, particularly Tesla. Musk's persona has shifted from that of a future-focused visionary to a right-wing culture warrior. Love him or loathe him, he’s become as divisive as a Thanksgiving dinner with your unvaccinated uncle.

Many of Tesla's early supporters wonder where the Obama-era liberal Musk has gone. Where's the man who believed climate change was a bigger threat than wokeness. Musk's shift has caused some of Tesla’s early adopters to race away from the company faster than a Roadster's zero-to-sixty. These initial buyers—often tech-savvy, and environmentally conscious—were drawn to Tesla’s promise of cutting-edge electric vehicles (EVs) and a sustainable future. They were once Tesla’s ride-or-die crew. However, Musk’s increasingly polarizing behavior has led some loyalists to reconsider their allegiance. Reports of long-time Tesla owners trading in their Model S or Model 3 vehicles for alternatives from brands like Rivian, Lucid, or even legacy automakers (gasp!) signal a subtle but significant exodus. For these early adopters, Tesla’s allure has waned.

Meanwhile, the legacy automakers—Ford, GM, Volkswagen, the whole gas-guzzling gang—are flailing like fish on a dock trying to pivot to EVs. These dinosaurs spent a century refining the internal combustion engine. Now they're scrambling to retool factories, retrain workers, and revamp supply chains for battery-powered vehicles. Navigating disruption is not in their DNA. Their factories are creaking, their unions are confused, they don't have software expertise, and their EV game is stuck in neutral. The shift is proving costly and complex, with production delays and tepid consumer uptake of their offerings hampering progress.

Models like the Ford Mustang Mach-E or GM’s Silverado EV show promise, but these companies struggle to match Tesla’s scale and profitability in the EV space. As we've pointed out, Tesla's biggest advantage was that it didn't have to compete against, well, Tesla. Legacy auto's EV hesitation has created a gap between ambition and execution, leaving them vulnerable (especially to Chinese brands) in a rapidly electrifying market. It’s like watching your grandpa try a TikTok dance—cringe, awkward, and a little late to the party.

Ironically, the early adopters abandoning Tesla might be the golden ticket the wheezing car giants need to jumpstart their EV sales. These buyers are typically affluent, environmentally aware, and willing to embrace new technology—traits that align perfectly with the demographic legacy brands must court to gain traction in the EV space. These Tesla defectors value innovation and sustainability over brand loyalty and are not particularly price-sensitive. Legacy brands need these smug trailblazers to strut into dealerships and say, “Sure, I’ll take your overpriced electric box, at least it’s not a Tesla.” If Ford or GM can stop tripping over their own spark plugs, they might court this crowd and finally get some EV traction.

But don’t cry for Tesla just yet. 

Tesla’s greatest strength lies in its ability to convert skeptics—those who previously dismissed EVs as impractical or unappealing. Tesla is a gateway for drivers who never imagined ditching gasoline. Musk's swing to the right might have a few folks on that side of the aisle considering an EV. These are the folks who thought EVs were for granola-crunching hippies. Tesla’s not just selling cars; it’s converting heathens, one tire-squealing burnout at a time.

With compelling new lower-priced products like the anticipated $25,000 compact EV (Redwood / Model Next), Tesla is poised to attract a new wave of buyers, drawing in consumers who prioritize affordability. If the Cybercab launch this summer is successful, Tesla won't be able to build them fast enough.

Together, Tesla's shedding of early adopters and the appeal to the right might be a one-two punch that helps put more EVs with more nameplates on the road, removing more tailpipes and their emissions from the global fleet. The atmosphere doesn't care why someone stopped driving a vehicle with a belching tailpipe; only that they did.

disclaimer: I'm long TSLA.

Tesla 2025 - What to Expect

Self-driving cars, autonomous robots, industrial-scale batteries, mass market EVS ... the future is on the horizon and Tesla is a big part of making this happen.

Tesla 2024

Before we look forward, let's look at what 2024 brought from Tesla. 

The biggest 2024 event for Tesla was the Cybercab (and Robovan) reveal. According to Tesla, the Cybercab will cost less than $30k, have a 200-mile range, be fully autonomous, use induction charging, and have a battery capacity of 35-36 kWh.

Other Tesla notable 2024 milestones included: 

• Project Highland, the refreshed Model 3 started deliveries in the US.
• Cybertruck deliveries ramped and the non-foundation series deliveries began.
• Cybertruck is the best-selling electric pick-up, beating the Ford F-150 Lightning and Rivian R1T.
• Model Y is the best-selling EV in the world and in many regions, it was the best-selling vehicle overall. 
• In December '24, Tesla celebrated the production of its 7 millionth vehicle globally. That's a lot of petrol demand reduction! 
• Powerwall and Megapack Deployment: Tesla Energy had a blockbuster year, with over 800,000 Powerwalls installed and significant growth in Megapack deployments, hitting over 22 GWh in operation globally.
• Supercharger Network Expansion: Tesla expanded its Supercharger network by adding over 11,500 new stalls, representing a 19% year-over-year growth.
• 4680 battery cell production goes into high gear: By June 2024, Tesla had produced its 50 millionth 4680 battery cell at Giga Texas. On September 14, 2024, Tesla announced that they had produced the 100 millionth 4680 battery cell across all its factories.
• The Tesla Semi has expanded beyond Pepsi Co. with DHL, Walmart, Costco, and others receiving their first units. More on this below. 

Now let's look at 2025.

Tesla: What's Coming in 2025

Redwood 

First on the list for 2025 has to be Redwood. The Tesla Redwood is planned for production in mid-2025. It is described as a compact crossover but specific details, appearance, and features are still speculative. This is unusual for Tesla; vehicle unveilings usually happen long before production starts (see Roadster below).  

Redwood Design: The Redwood has been hinted at as possibly resembling a smaller version of the Model Y or adopting a "Cyberhatch" design, drawing inspiration from the Cybertruck or Cybercab's aesthetics. This could mean a more angular, futuristic look than the 3 or Y.

Redwood Design Speculation by Grok

Redwood Price: It is anticipated to be Tesla's most affordable model, with a potential starting price around $25,000, aiming to make electric vehicles more accessible to a broader market.

Battery: Redwood is expected to use a 54 kWh LFP battery. This balances cost efficiency while maintaining an acceptable 225+ range suitable for urban and suburban use.

Manufacturing: Redwood will be built on a new platform called NV9X, which focuses on reducing production costs and improving efficiency in manufacturing. This includes methods like Tesla's advanced gigacasting.

Autonomous Driving: Redwood could be the first vehicle to incorporate Tesla's next-gen AI5 (HW5) FSD (Full Self-Driving) computer.

Interior: Specifics about the interior have not been released but you can expect it to follow Tesla's minimalist interior with a large central touchscreen. For an affordable vehicle, don't expect to see a second-row screen. 

Performance: With the focus on cost, specific performance metrics like acceleration or top speed aren't likely to be impressive compared to the rest of Tesla's line-up, but track mode is not the focus of this vehicle.

Production Plans: Tesla has initiated discussions with suppliers, indicating an eventual weekly production volume of 10,000 vehicles. Production will likely start at Giga Texas or Shanghai before expanding to other locations.

Tesla Roadster 

Our first peek at Roadster was so long ago (December 2017). In 2024, other than a tweet or two from Elon, we didn't see much about the Roadster. 2025 should be different. The Tesla Roadster has been massively redesigned since that 2017 unveiling event. That means we'll need another unveiling event for the redesign. I expect to see this in August of 2025. If we're lucky, we'll get to see it levitate momentarily. As Tesla often does, this could be combined with other events such as an AI Day or product updates. Maybe Redwood and Roadster will share the stage this summer.

Juniper

Before I even posted this, Juniper information leaked. This is the Model Y refresh, and launch series deliveries are slated to start in March of '25 in the US and China with other countries quickly following. 

Juniper offers several improvements over the existing Y, including 3% range improvements, lighter weight, power-fold (and unfold) rear seats, power frunk, ambient lighting, front-bumper camera, second-row screen, better suspension, and a larger frunk.

This looks like a nice update to the best-selling EV in the world.

Robotaxi Service Launch

2025 is likely the year we'll see the first testing of a Robotaxi service. These will use Model Y primarily, with Cybercab and Redwood coming later. Austin or Vegas are the likely test markets. Initially, these vehicles will be 100% remotely monitored. The remote supervisor will be able to update routes and resolve issues. Any time a robotaxi needs a supervisor intervention, this will be an opportunity to provide training data for the next iteration of FSD. 

As FSD improves, the number of interventions will decrease and supervisors will be able to monitor more vehicles simultaneously, as each vehicle will need less support. This will allow the fleet to scale up.

Tesla Semi 

Tesla began delivering the electric Semi truck to customers in December 2022, with Pepsi Co. receiving the first units. 

Pepsi initially ordered 100 trucks, which Tesla completed in 2024. Pepsi operates the Semis in Modesto, Sacramento, and Fresno. They are used for both regional long-haul and local routes.

 

In 2024, Tesla began testing and delivering the Semi to other clients, including: 

• DHL 
• Walmart 
• Martin Brower 
• Costco 
• Sysco 
• US Foods 

Semi related things that you can expect to see from Tesla in 2025: 

• Establish a charging network for the Semi starting in the southwestern US
• Make the Semi available to test partners in several countries
• Finalize the engineering of the Semi for high-volume production
• Start construction on a Semi truck factory at Giga Nevada

Tesla Semi full-volume production is scheduled for March 2026.

Optimus 

In 2024, Tesla will build three to five thousand Optimus robots. These will be deployed in Tesla factories and with select development partners to allow for testing and feedback. 

The bots will, initially, be nearly 100% teleoperation. With time, teleoperation will move to merely human supervision. As Optimus learns more skills, much like the initial Robotaxis, human supervision will be weaned as tasks are improved. Each time a human does need to intervene this will be used as a learning opportunity and feed into the AI dojo.

Maybe we'll see Optimus showing off a few new tricks at the Redwood event.

NACS Club

The plug war is over, and Tesla won. In 2023, all the major automakers pledged to support NACS in the North American market. This year, most of them will get access to at least a portion of the Supercharger network. We'll also see adapters for the CCS vehicles. Hyundai, Kia, Genesis, BMW, Jaguar, Land Rover, and Lucid have all been added to the coming soon list for Supercharger access.

2025 is also the year we'll see non-Tesla vehicles coming to market with native NACS (SAE J3400) ports.

50s Diner - Rock-n-Charge

We've been hearing about this Tesla diner for some time now. I was hoping for a 2024 opening, but that didn't happen. 

What is it? Tesla is creating a place where you can pull in, plug in, and have food delivered to your car while charging. The property has been purchased, permits have been issued, and construction is underway. 2025 absolutely should be the year this jewel opens for business. You can look forward to a big Tesla party here this year.

Model S and X

An avid Tesla follower friend has been predicting the end of the Model S and X for several years. The production volumes are not significant to Tesla's bottom line. To add more fuel to his argument, in 2024, Model S and X US sales were down 31% and 20%, respectively. Is he finally right, and will this be the year they are discontinued?

I have argued that these vehicles are important halo vehicles for Tesla. They are aspirational with the incredible performance of the S and the falcon-wing doors of the X. This brings people to the brand. The S and X get them in the door, even if most of them buy a more practical 3 or Y. You can think of these as part of Tesla's marketing budget. And, Tesla can try out new technologies in these vehicles; better to work out the kinks in a lower-volume vehicle. As Tesla adds more vehicles, they could consider ending production of these vehicles, but they will likely survive 2025.

I would like to see revamps of both vehicles with more lush interiors, improved noise-dampening, smoother suspension, and a price increase. The refresh would include re-adding the turn signal stalk (as Juniper did), ambient lighting (Highlander style), power everything (seats, frunk, doors...), and a front bumper camera. Bring back free Supercharging for life and free premium connectivity on these vehicles; these are premium features. Grok integration features should premier on the S and X, then roll out 3 to 6 months later to the rest of the fleet. Under the hood, this refresh would transform the S and X into a modern Tesla with a 48V aux battery, Etherloop, and steer-by-wire. This last item would also make it easier for Tesla to produce righthand drive models, which is something that they don't currently produce for the S and X. 

Conclusion

As with every year since its inception, 2025 will be an exciting one for Tesla. This could be the year we see the first Tesla driving around (legally) without a person in the driver's seat. We'll see a new vehicle or two, Optimus and FSD will learn new tricks, and energy storage will continue to grow as our grid evolves. 

Tesla 2025 Production Estimates

As regular readers know, panelists of The Tesla Life estimate the number of vehicles that Tesla will produce each year. All of our 2024 estimates were optimistic.

Several factors reduced Tesla's sales and production in the first half of 2024. Will 2025 be a 20 - 30% growth year (as Musk stated in the Oct '24 earnings call) or a roughly flat year. Significant growth rate will be on hold until a new lower-cost model (Redwood) is in high-volume production. So, the 50% growth that we've seen in other years, is off the table for 2025. Even if a new model is introduced this year, it's unlikely production can ramp to high volume this year.

2024 had a production volume of 1,773,443 vehicles. Applying the center of the guidance (25% growth) would result in 2,216,804 vehicles.

Given all of this, I have generated estimates via several trend analysis methods:

Method	Estimate
Linear	2,012,000
Exponential	2,080,000
Poly4	1,712,000
QoQ	1,903,550
QoY	1,924,723
YoY	1,723,789
Ave of Above	1,892,677

That's six estimates ranging from 1.7 million to 2.08 million. None of these estimates reach the 2.2M guidance level. If Redwood comes out in the first half of the year, is a hit, and ramps quickly then these estimates may be shooting under the mark.

The Tesla Life estimation rule is that you can only submit one guess. You cannot submit a range or condition (e.g., my guess is X, but if interest rates drop it's X+20%).

Which guestimate should I go with? Given that for the last two years, I've really been looking forward to Tesla hitting the 2 million mark and my estimates have been overly optimistic, I'm inclined to select a number that's less than 2M. Then I'm in a win-win situation; if they do produce 2M+, I'll be happy they achieved that milestone and if they don't hit 2M, then perhaps my guess will be the winning one in The Tesla Life's game.

If you want to submit your guess to the game, tweet it at @TheTeslaLife before January 29th, 2025.