Roadmap of Tesla Autopilot/FSD

Origin of Tesla Autopilot/FSD

Tesla was founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning with an initial focus on high-performance electric vehicles. At its founding, the company had no explicit emphasis on self-driving technology. Elon Musk joined as chairman in 2004 and became CEO in 2008, and he has been the primary driving force behind pushing Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities, repeatedly emphasizing full autonomy (SAE Level 5 - eyes off, hands off, take a nap) as a key goal since at least 2013. Musk's influence escalated in the mid-2010s, where he directed the shift toward vision-based systems and end-to-end neural networks, drawing from billions of real-world driving data frames. Musk's direct involvement, his aggressive timelines and decisions, like removing radar in 2021 for cost and vision purity, have shaped its development.

Key Personnel Involved in Hardware (HW) and Software (SW)

Tesla's Autopilot/FSD development has involved a mix of internal teams and high-profile hires. On the hardware side, the focus has been on custom silicon for processing power. On software, it is centered on AI, computer vision, and neural networks trained on vast datasets.

• Jim Keller: A legendary chip architect, Keller joined Tesla in January 2016 as Vice President of Autopilot Hardware Engineering and left in April 2018. He led the design of Tesla's first custom FSD chip (used in HW3), emphasizing redundancy and high-performance computing for autonomy. Prior to Tesla, he worked on Apple's A4/A5 chips and AMD's Zen architecture.
• Andrej Karpathy: A deep learning expert and OpenAI co-founder, Karpathy joined Tesla in 2017 as Director of AI, leading the Autopilot vision team until his departure in July 2022 (after a 4-month sabbatical starting March 2022). He was instrumental in shifting to vision-only systems, developing end-to-end neural nets, and overseeing FSD Beta releases. He rejoined OpenAI in 2023.

Other notable contributors include Pete Bannon (ex-Apple, worked under Keller on HW3+) and teams focused on Dojo supercomputer for training (though Dojo has faced pivots). Elon Musk has been hands-on, often overriding engineering decisions.

Timeline of Major Milestones

Below is a chronological timeline combining key Autopilot/FSD milestones, hardware introductions (with features added), and software revisions. Hardware revisions focus on enabling progressively advanced autonomy, while software builds on that with features like beta testing and vision improvements. Dates are approximate based on announcements and rollouts.

(Month) Year	Milestone	Details
2013	Early Vision for Autonomy	Elon Musk begins publicly predicting full autonomy within years; Tesla starts internal development.
Sep 2014	HW1 Introduced	First Autopilot hardware (Mobileye EyeQ3). Added basic features: adaptive cruise control (ACC), lane-keeping assist (Autosteer), automatic emergency braking (AEB), and auto-parking. Used 1 forward camera, radar, and ultrasonics. Installed in Model S/X until mid-2016.
2015	Initial SW Releases for HW1	Software v7.0 enables Autopilot features like ACC and Autosteer on highways. Factor of 10 safety improvement predicted by Musk within 6 years.
Oct 2016	HW2 Introduced	NVIDIA Drive PX 2 platform. Added 8 cameras (360° coverage), 12 ultrasonics, enhanced radar. Enabled "Enhanced Autopilot" with auto lane changes, Summon (remote parking), and Navigate on Autopilot (NoA) potential. Installed until mid-2017.
Mar 2017	SW v8.1 for HW2	Brought HW2 parity with HW1, adding speed limit recognition and improved Autosteer.
Aug 2017	HW2.5 Introduced	Updated NVIDIA hardware with redundant  processing units for safety. Added cabin camera (initially dormant). Improved sensor fusion for better reliability in adverse conditions. Installed until early 2019.
Apr 2019	Autonomy Day; HW3 Introduced	Tesla's custom FSD chip (dual redundant SoCs, 21 TOPS). Designed for full redundancy and FSD compute needs. Added support for traffic light/stop sign recognition, automatic city driving. Retrofits began for older vehicles. Basic Autopilot made standard.
Oct 2020	FSD Beta Program Launch	SW v10 Beta: Early access for select users, enabling city streets navigation. FSD price rises to $10,000.
May 2021	Shift to Vision-Only	Removed radar from new vehicles; relied on cameras and neural nets. SW updates like v9 Beta emphasize pure vision.
Oct 2021	FSD Beta v10.3 Issues	Brief halt due to safety concerns; quick fixes rolled out.
Sep 2022	FSD Price Increase	To $15,000; wider Beta access.
Mar 2023	HW4 (AI4) Introduced	Second-gen Tesla chip (higher resolution cameras, more compute ~500 TOPS). Added better handling of complex scenarios, rain/snow performance, and hardware for unsupervised FSD. Installed in new Model S/X, then 3/Y.
2023-2024	FSD v11/v12 Rollouts	v11: Unified stack for highway/city. v12: End-to-end neural nets, no hand-coded rules; hands-free with attention monitoring. Wide release of v12.4 in mid-2024 removes torque-based nagging.
Jan 2025	FSD v12.6 for HW3	Improvements in smoothness and decision-making.
May 2025	FSD v13 for AI4	v13.2.9: Enhanced vision monitoring, better edge cases. HW3 lags behind AI4 versions.
Aug 2025	Dojo Timeline Updates	Custom supercomputer for FSD training; faces delays but crucial for future nets.

Looking Forward: AI5 and AI6 Likely New Features

Tesla is pivoting away from Dojo to focus on in-house chips for inference and training. AI5 is expected to be in production by late 2026, with massive performance boosts (up to 40x over AI4), optimized for sparse tensors, mixed-precision math (FP8/INT4), and dedicated AI blocks. Likely new features: Unsupervised FSD (no human intervention), real-time "reality compression" for efficient processing, better handling of rare events, and integration with Robotaxi/Cybercab. Manufactured by TSMC.

AI6 (2028?) is described by Musk as "the best AI chip by far," with even higher power efficiency. It will likely enable advanced multi-modal AI (e.g., integrating voice, gestures), fleet-scale learning, and energy-efficient autonomy for mass deployment. Making AI6 a perfect fit for a humanoid robotic product. AI6 is planned to be made at Samsung's new Texas facilities.

Fossil Fuels Don't Need Subsidies

Prospects for Ending US Fossil Fuel Subsidies

The United States provides substantial subsidies to the fossil fuel industry, estimated at $760 billion annually by the International Monetary Fund in 2022, including $3 billion in direct subsidies (tax breaks and credits) and $754 billion in implicit subsidies (unpriced environmental and health costs). These subsidies are rooted in policies like the Intangible Drilling Costs Deduction since 1913. Fossil fuel subsidies face growing scrutiny for clashing with climate goals and economic efficiency. Eliminating them is challenging due to political, economic, and regulatory barriers, compounded by the recent passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) in July 2025. However, opportunities driven by climate urgency, global trends, and public pressure offer hope. Below, we explore the barriers, opportunities, and impacts of the OBBBA on ending fossil fuel subsidies.

Political and Economic Barriers

Industry Influence and Lobbying

The fossil fuel industry’s political clout is a formidable obstacle. In 2023, the sector spent over $100 million on lobbying, according to OpenSecrets. They lobbied to preserve tax provisions like the Intangible Drilling Costs Deduction and Percentage Depletion. Congressional allies in oil-rich states like Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana defend these subsidies as critical for economic stability. Past repeal efforts have consistently failed, reflecting the industry’s ability to frame subsidies as essential for jobs and energy security, a narrative that resonates in energy-dependent regions. 

           

Reaping over $200 billion in profits in 2022, the fossil fuel industry does not need subsidies to thrive. These government handouts primarily boost shareholder value, distort energy markets, and delay the transition to cleaner, more sustainable energy future.

Regulatory Capture

Regulatory capture significantly entrenches fossil fuel subsidies. Industry executives and lobbyists often influence or hold positions in agencies like the Department of Energy or Environmental Protection Agency, shaping policies to favor oil, methane, and coal. This capture perpetuates implicit subsidies, such as unpriced pollution costs ($754 billion in 2022, per IMF), by delaying regulations like carbon pricing or stricter emissions standards. It prioritizes corporate profits over public interest, stifling renewable energy transitions and reducing accountability for environmental damage. Capture also undermines reform by embedding industry-friendly regulators who resist subsidy phase-outs, making legislative change politically contentious.

Regional Economic Dependence

States like Louisiana, Wyoming, and North Dakota depend on energy revenue, and lawmakers prioritize local economies, viewing subsidy cuts as a threat to jobs and tax bases. This creates bipartisan resistance to ending corporate welfare.

Energy Price Concerns

Policymakers fear subsidy removal could raise energy costs, impacting consumers and industries. Direct subsidies ($3-20 billion annually) lower production costs, stabilizing gasoline and heating prices. OECD studies suggest price increases of only 1-2%, but public sensitivity to cost hikes, amplified by post-2022 inflation, remains a significant barrier. This concern often overshadows the long-term benefits of redirecting funds to cleaner energy regardless of the truth of the matter.

Policy Inertia and Complexity

Subsidies are embedded in complex tax codes, requiring intricate legislative action to dismantle. Repealing provisions like the domestic manufacturing deduction for oil and gas demands broad congressional approval, often stalled by budget disputes or filibusters. Implicit subsidies, tied to externalities like pollution, face resistance to mechanisms like carbon pricing, particularly from conservative lawmakers and industry allies wary of new taxes.

Opportunities for Reform

Climate Policy Momentum

The US commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050, reinforced by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) of 2022, which allocated $369 billion for clean energy, signals a shift toward renewables. International pledges, like the G7’s 2025 deadline to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, add pressure. These frameworks could justify redirecting subsidies to renewables, which received only $15.6 billion in 2022, supporting a fairer energy market and aligning with global climate goals.

Economic and Job Creation Potential

Eliminating fossil fuel subsidies could free up significant funds. The Joint Committee on Taxation estimates repealing certain tax breaks could save $25.9 billion over a decade. Redirecting these to renewables, which create 3-7 times more jobs per dollar invested than fossil fuels (IRENA, 2023), could appeal to lawmakers focused on economic growth. Declining renewable costs (solar down 80% since 2010) weaken the economic case for fossil fuel subsidies, making reform increasingly viable.

Public and Investor Pressure

Growing climate activism and investor demand for ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) compliance are shifting the landscape. Public awareness of the $760 billion subsidy cost versus $15.6 billion for renewables could fuel grassroots campaigns. Shareholders are pushing energy firms to diversify, reducing reliance on subsidies. Increased public support could pressure Congress, particularly under climate-focused administrations, to prioritize reform.

Global Trends and Leadership

Countries like Canada and the EU are phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, with the EU targeting 2025. Aligning with these trends could enhance US climate leadership, especially post-COP28’s call for transitioning away from fossil fuels. EU carbon border taxes might incentivize subsidy cuts to avoid trade penalties, bolstering the case for reform.

Impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), passed by the Senate (51-50) on July 1, 2025, and the House (218-214) on July 3, 2025, reinforces fossil fuel subsidies, significantly hindering reform prospects. Its impacts include:

• Strengthening Fossil Fuel Subsidies: The OBBBA delays a methane pollution fee, rolls back vehicle emission rules, and streamlines fossil fuel project approvals. Senator James Lankford’s provision exempts many oil and gas drillers from the corporate alternative minimum tax, expanding tax breaks. It also lowers royalty rates for oil and gas (16.6% to 12.5%) and coal (12.5% to 7%) on federal lands, boosting industry profits and entrenching subsidies.
• Undermining Clean Energy: The bill repeals IRA clean energy tax credits (e.g., Sections 45Y and 48E) for solar and wind by 2028, requiring projects to start construction within a year and be completed by 2030. It rescinds $3.6 billion for DOE’s Title 17 loan guarantees and $5 billion for the Energy Infrastructure Reinvestment program, redirecting $1 billion to an “Energy Dominance Financing” program prioritizing fossil fuels. This increases reliance on gas and coal, raising household energy costs by up to $415 annually by 2035 (Princeton’s Jenkins).
• Economic and Environmental Setbacks: The OBBBA increases emissions (up 5% in Q1 2025, per Carbon Monitor), threatens 800,000 clean energy jobs, and raises electricity bills by 10% (Evergreen Action). It undermines $522 billion in announced clean energy investments, delaying the renewable transition.
• Reinforcing Regulatory Capture: The bill’s fossil fuel-friendly provisions reflect industry influence, with groups like the American Petroleum Institute praising its expanded access to federal lands. This deepens capture, as regulators prioritize industry over climate objectives, further delaying subsidy reform.

Likely Timeline and Strategies

Near-Term Outlook (2025-2030)

The OBBBA’s passage makes subsidy elimination before 2030 highly unlikely. Its fossil fuel-friendly provisions, backed by regulatory capture, entrench industry influence. Incremental reforms, like capping tax breaks for marginal projects or tightening federal land leases, may face less resistance, but political gridlock and GOP Senate control (53 seats) limit progress. A strong Democratic majority could push back, but the OBBBA’s legacy complicates efforts.

Mid-Term Prospects (2030-2035)

As renewables reach 50% of US electricity by 2030 (EIA), pressure to eliminate explicit subsidies may grow. Implicit subsidies, tied to externalities, require carbon pricing, which faces resistance due to capture. A fiscal crisis, climate disaster, or stronger international commitments could shift priorities, but the OBBBA’s impacts may delay reform until 2035.

Strategic Approaches

• Targeted Reforms: Focus on low-resistance cuts, like coal liquefaction subsidies ($1 billion), while preserving job-heavy provisions.
• Reallocate Savings: Redirect funds to renewables, job retraining, or consumer relief to mitigate economic concerns.
• Build Public Support: Highlight subsidy disparities to galvanize voters.
• Counter Capture: Advocate for independent oversight of energy agencies to reduce industry influence.

Conclusion

Ending US fossil fuel subsidies faces steep barriers from lobbying, regulatory capture, regional interests, and the OBBBA’s reinforcement of fossil fuel support. Climate urgency, economic logic, and global trends provide reform pathways, but the bill’s impacts delay progress, favoring industry profits over public interest. Incremental reforms by 2030 are possible, with broader cuts by 2035 if political will and public momentum align. Strategic focus on targeted reforms, public engagement, and countering capture is crucial for a cleaner energy future.

Ed Niedermeyer on Tesla :: Right Data, Wrong Conclusion

In part one, we looked at the Expert Fallacy and how it applies to Tesla. Now, I'd like to look at one particular person more deeply, Edward Niedermeyer. 

Edward Niedermeyer is a fellow Oregonian, an automotive journalist, and the author of Ludicrous: The Unvarnished Story of Tesla Motors (2019). We've appeared together on the casual new vehicle tech show What Drives US? multiple times.

Niedermeyer has been a notable skeptic of Tesla and Elon Musk. IMHO, his writings and public statements reflect the expert fallacy. His industry expertise says that no one else has successfully done this, so Tesla will follow this well-worn path to failure. This rearview mirror perspective has shaped his narrative, particularly concerning Tesla’s trajectory over the past two decades. Edward overlooks the unpredictable nature of innovation. As I've said before, he is factually accurate, logical, and completely wrong. 

Niedermeyer’s early coverage at The Truth About Cars (which included the Tesla Death Watch*) around 2008 portrayed Tesla as a struggling startup unlikely to survive. As Tesla advanced with the Roadster, Model S, X, and 3, Ed reinforced predictions of bankruptcy, arguing the company’s financial instability and production challenges would lead to its downfall. In Ludicrous, he critiques Tesla’s Silicon Valley approach, highlighting its departure from traditional auto industry standards, such as meticulous production planning, in favor of a “move fast and break things” mindset. He points to specific setbacks, including the 2015 battery-swap demo flop at Harris Ranch, where diesel generators undermined Tesla’s environmental claims, and the 2016 Model 3 production “hell,” where automated systems underperformed. These examples support his view of Tesla as a company built on hype rather than substance, a stance he has reiterated in podcasts like The War on Cars, Tech Won’t Save Us, and The Autonocast, where he labels Musk a “huckster” skilled at selling implausible promises like the "fraud" that is FSD.

* Niedermeyer claims that he was not involved with the Tesla Death Watch although he was there and writing about Tesla at that time.

Niedermeyer's skepticism mirrors the expert fallacy. Niedermeyer’s deep auto industry knowledge led him to anchor his predictions in known legacy automaker metrics, such as thin margins, slow scaling, quality control, and inability to quickly pivot. This misses Tesla’s non-linear growth driven by software, battery innovation, an expanding TAM, and more. In his 2016 New York Times op-ed, Niedermeyer criticized Musk’s unfulfilled self-driving promises. Yet Tesla’s market cap soared past $1 trillion by 2021, defying Ed's financial doom forecasts. And Tesla drivers who have purchased Tesla's driver-assist / supervised autonomy package are overwhelmingly happy with the feature.

Niedermeyer's, yet untitled, next book will be about Tesla's autonomous driving efforts. He has repeatedly called FSD a fraud on his podcast, so I don't expect his new book to offer an objective view of Tesla's FSD technology, Robotaxi deployment, or future. It will likely again (incorrectly) predict doom for Tesla and Musk, much like the 2008 Tesla Death Watch (that he was definitely not involved in).

Niedermeyer's focus on Tesla’s early defects and missed deadlines, like the 2018 500,000-vehicle target, overlooks Musk’s ability to raise capital (over $20 billion since 2010) and iterate quickly, turning setbacks into successes.

When a big, hairy, audacious goal is put forward, it does not matter if it arrives on the exact day of the prediction. We quoted the wise words from Trent Eady before, “If Musk promises you the moon in six months and delivers it in three years, keep things in perspective: you’ve got the moon.” Making the impossible merely late. 

Niedermeyer’s stance also echoes the curmudgeonly attitude NASA’s Apollo team avoided (as noted in Part 1). His persistent negativity, especially in past interactions with Tesla fans, contrasts with the optimistic collaboration that fueled Apollo’s moon landing. Niedermeyer has left Twitter/X, and you can now find him on Bluesky, where he continues to be a bitter critic. 

Niedermeyer has been accused of having financial ties to short-sellers, though I believe this to be unlikely. He does this because it's who he is, not because Jim Chanos is paying him for it. Niedermeyer's 2022 Slate article, titled "When Elon Musk Dreams, His Employees Have Nightmares", warned that Musk’s dysfunctional management of Tesla was a bad sign for Twitter. Yet Tesla has continued to be resilient, and X continues to operate.

That said, Niedermeyer is not always wrong. His call for a second opinion on Tesla’s hype is valid, though his own bias risks “opinion shopping” by leaning on accounts critical of Musk. Niedermeyer's authority led him to overestimate predictable failure while underestimating Tesla’s adaptive innovation, such as the Gigafactory’s cost reductions or Supercharger network’s competitive edge.

Niedermeyer has referred to the diesel generators at the battery swap station as Tesla's "first roach," and as the saying goes, "if you see one, you know there are more." Niedermeyer used this statement multiple times when appearing in various outlets to promote his book. This single statement encapsulates how he gets Tesla wrong. When you want to build something, you begin by getting things operational and then refining, rather than years of planning and analysis paralysis. If you want to build a battery swap station and recharge center, you need a significant industrial-level electricity supply. A utility cannot deliver that at the drop of a hat, so you find a way to develop a minimum viable product. From there, you iterate. You request the service from the utility, then when it arrives, you remove the generators. Until then, you have an operating swap station that you can use to develop the control software, test, debug, and improve the system.

And, by the way, that electrical service did eventually arrive. By then, the swap station was long gone as Tesla went all-in on Supercharging, but the provided electrical service was put to good use. The Harris Ranch Supercharger was built in the same area. With 98 charging stalls, Harris Ranch is a notable Tesla Supercharger location, and it's a popular stop for Tesla owners traveling along Interstate 5.

In summary, Niedermeyer’s writings and statements exemplify how expert predictions can falter when innovation defies norms. His focus on Tesla’s flaws and delayed timelines misses the broader picture of Tesla's innovation and success. There's a lesson in balancing experience and authority with openness to the unexpected. Reality is an open-world game, not a side-scroller. There's far more than one way to get to the finish line, and sometimes someone will make a move that you've never seen before, no matter how long you've been observing the game.

EV Sales After the Incentive Cliff: Navigating America's Electric Road Ahead

Sunset of the Tax Credit: A Bump in the Road for America's EV Shift

As September 2025 draws to a close, the US faces a pivotal moment for electric vehicles (EVs). The federal $7,500 EV tax credit expires on September 30. This incentive has fueled a surge in EV adoption, helping them carve out a meaningful slice of the auto market. Yet, while the end of this subsidy will undoubtedly ripple through sales figures, it won't derail the broader momentum toward cleaner transportation. History shows us that such policy shifts create temporary turbulence, but innovation keeps the wheels turning. In a world grappling with climate change, EVs remain a cornerstone of sustainable progress, and their story is far from over on October 1st.

We've seen the end of EV incentives play out before. Back in 2008, the Energy Improvement and Security Act introduced a $7,500 tax credit per EV, which phased out after 200,000 vehicles per manufacturer. Tesla hit that limit in July 2012, leading to a 10% sales dip in the following quarter as some buyers paused. General Motors followed suit with the Chevy Volt, maxing out its allocation by 2013 and experiencing a similar slowdown. These hiccups were short-lived. Tesla's sales rebounded within months, buoyed by falling prices and growing infrastructure. The lesson? Incentives accelerate uptake, but once exhausted, the market adapts. Today's expiration mirrors that dynamic, albeit on a larger scale, with no per-maker cap but a hard stop for all.

The immediate impact feels stark. Dealerships report a frenzy as buyers rush to lock in credits before midnight on the 30th. August 2025 alone saw US EV sales over 146-thousand units, claiming 9.9% of the market, up from 9.1% in July. Analysts predict Q3'25 will shatter records, with EVs potentially reaching 10% of total sales for the quarter. Post-expiration, though, expect a pullback. Demand could fall 10% to 30% in Q4, perhaps dropping back to the 100-thousand level, as the effective price hike causes sticker shock for some would-be buyers. Manufacturers like Ford and Rivian are already scaling back production and may further reduce their output to avoid short-term inventory gluts.

Still, EVs won't fade into the background. They comprised a growing chunk of the US market in recent years, and projections point to steady expansion. In 2024, EVs captured over 10% of light-duty vehicle sales, with 1.6 million units sold. That's a leap from 7.3% in 2023. For 2025, the International Energy Agency forecasts nearly 10% sales growth, nudging the share slightly higher to around 11%, despite the credit's end. By 2026, as supply chains stabilize and more models proliferate, experts anticipate 13% penetration. These figures reflect a market maturing beyond subsidies, driven by consumer preference for low operating costs and zero tailpipe emissions.

To illustrate the trajectory, consider this growth of EV adoption:

Year	US EV Sales (million)	Market Share
2023	1.2	7.3%
2024	1.6	10%
2025e	1.76	11%
2026e	2.2	13%

This table underscores the market demand resilience. Total US vehicle sales hover around 16 million annually, so even a post-credit dip in late 2025 won't erase the gains.

Battery Tech Advances

Underpinning this optimism is relentless progress in battery technology. Prices plummeted 20% in 2024 alone, averaging $115 per kilowatt-hour. That's a boon for affordability, as larger packs become feasible without ballooning costs. Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs projects a further drop to $80 per kWh by 2026, thanks to scaled production and innovations like solid-state cells. Lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, prized for safety, longevity, and lower price, could claim 38% of the market by then. These advances slash manufacturing expenses, trickling down to consumers in the form of sub-$30,000 EVs by mid-decade. Pair that with expanding charging networks, now over 60,000 public stations nationwide, and the economic case strengthens. EVs already save owners ~$1,500 per year on fuel and maintenance compared to gas guzzlers. As batteries evolve, that gap widens, making the switch irresistible for eco-conscious or affordability-focused drivers.

Losing US Jobs

Beyond mere rebates, the federal EV tax credit under the Inflation Reduction Act strategically anchored battery production and critical minerals in US soil. Requiring 50% of battery components to be North American-made in 2023, ramping to 60% this year. It spurred factories from Georgia to Nevada, creating jobs and curbing reliance on overseas supply chains. This mandate not only fortified energy security and created US jobs. As it sunsets, it's unclear if these US factories will continue to operate, or if batteries will be manufactured offshore in cheaper labor markets.

Conclusion

In the end, the tax credit's twilight marks not an eclipse, but a maturation for the US EV market. We've witnessed rushes and recoveries before, and each has fortified the path to electrification. With batteries getting cheaper and greener grids charging ahead, 2026 promises a market where EVs aren't just viable, they thrive. Let's embrace this pivot. Our air, our health, and our future depend on keeping the charge alive.

Why The Experts Are Wrong About Tesla (repeatedly)

The Expert Fallacy and Why Predictions Fail in the Face of Innovation

The expert fallacy is a logical error where an argument is deemed true simply because an expert endorses it. This fallacy assumes that expertise guarantees accuracy, ignoring the reality that even the most knowledgeable individuals can be wrong, especially when predicting outcomes in novel or disruptive situations. While experts excel at forecasting when events follow established patterns, their predictions often falter when innovation introduces uncharted variables. This gap explains why experts misjudged transformative developments like the iPhone, digital photography, and Tesla’s rise, and why a culture of open-mindedness is vital for breakthroughs.

Experts are invaluable when problems align with historical trends. For instance, a seasoned economist can predict market cycles based on decades of data, or a civil engineer can forecast bridge wear using proven models. Their deep knowledge shines in stable, linear systems. However, when innovation disrupts these patterns, their predictions can be worse than random guesses. Innovation thrives on non-linear leaps, new technologies, and unexpected shifts that defy conventional frameworks. 

Cognitive biases compound this issue: confirmation bias leads experts to favor familiar data, while the curse of knowledge narrows their perspective, making them miss broader possibilities. This is why experts often become curmudgeons or Luddites, dismissing bold ideas with the conviction that “it can’t be done.” As the saying goes, “People saying something can’t be done should stay out of the way of people who are doing it.”

Historical examples illustrate this vividly. In 2007, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer ridiculed the iPhone, predicting its failure due to its high price and lack of a physical keyboard. Anchored to the BlackBerry and Nokia-dominated market, he couldn’t foresee how touchscreens and app ecosystems would redefine smartphones. Similarly, Kodak’s engineers, despite inventing the digital camera in the 1970s, dismissed digital photography, clinging to film’s dominance. Their expertise blinded them to a paradigm shift, leading to Kodak’s decline. These cases show how experts, steeped in current realities, struggle to envision disruptive futures.

Case Study: The Apollo Program

The NASA Apollo program demonstrated how attitude can trump rigid expertise. While technical skills were essential for the lunar missions, NASA prioritized a collaborative, optimistic mindset, informally dubbed the “no curmudgeons rule.” The young team, averaging just 28 years old, faced unprecedented challenges, from landing on the Moon to saving Apollo 13 after an oxygen tank explosion. Leaders like Gene Kranz and Chris Kraft cultivated a culture where creative problem-solving was encouraged and negativity or resistance to new ideas was unwelcome. During Apollo 13, engineers improvised a life-saving CO2 scrubber using duct tape and spare parts, a feat that required open-minded problem-solving over skeptical caution. This ethos allowed NASA to embrace uncertainty and achieve the impossible, showing that innovation demands flexibility, not just credentials.

This doesn’t mean experts should be ignored. Their insights are critical, especially in domains where patterns hold, like medicine or structural engineering. A heart surgeon’s diagnosis or a seismologist’s earthquake risk assessment carries weight for good reason. However, there’s no harm in seeking a second opinion to challenge assumptions, particularly when stakes are high or solutions feel uncertain. The danger lies in taking this too far. Beware of slipping into “opinion shopping,” where one seeks experts who merely echo their own views. This self-selection breeds bias and undermines critical thinking. The key is to balance respect for expertise with openness to diverse perspectives, especially from outsiders less tethered to conventional wisdom.

Tesla: A Case Study in Defying Expert Predictions

Tesla’s journey over the past two decades is a masterclass in how innovation outpaces expert forecasts. Auto industry analysts and stock experts repeatedly underestimated Tesla, anchored to the norms of legacy automakers like GM and Toyota. In the 2000s, they dismissed the Tesla Roadster as a niche product, arguing that electric vehicles (EVs) lacked the scale, infrastructure, or consumer demand to compete. By 2015, as the Model S gained traction, analysts like Barclays’ Brian Johnson predicted Tesla’s failure, citing insufficient capital and manufacturing expertise. They didn’t grasp Tesla’s tech-driven approach: vertical integration of batteries, software, and charging networks, coupled with over-the-air updates that turned cars into evolving platforms.

Skeptics also misjudged EV adoption. In 2010, Goldman Sachs forecasted EVs would remain under 5% of US sales by 2020, missing the impact of falling battery costs (down 90% from 2010 to 2020) and Tesla’s Supercharger network. Confirmation bias led analysts to focus on Tesla’s early losses and quality issues, while their deep knowledge of traditional auto margins (5-10%) made them undervalue Tesla’s tech-like growth potential (20%+ margins by 2023). Even bullish experts, like RBC’s Joseph Spak, predicted bankruptcy risks in 2018 during Model 3 production challenges, underestimating Musk’s ability to raise capital (over $20 billion), problem-solve, and rapidly iterate. Tesla’s Gigafactory was mocked by Morgan Stanley in 2014, yet it has become a cornerstone of Tesla's cost advantage.

It was easy to predict Tesla's failure because no other company had succeeded at the things they were attempting. Musk’s vision and execution defied curmudgeonly skepticism. Analysts like JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman set low price targets in 2016, focusing on missed deadlines rather than Tesla’s brand power and network effects. Early adopters fueled mainstream demand, turning Tesla into a cultural phenomenon. Meanwhile, outsiders like ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, less bound by auto industry dogma, predicted Tesla’s meteoric rise, targeting $4,000 per share (or $266 split-adjusted) by 2023 when others scoffed. As I write this, Tesla's stock is above $400 per share, well ahead of ARK's prediction. Tesla’s success shows how innovation, driven by those “doing it,” can silence naysayers.

Just as many experts have been wrong about Tesla in the past, there will undoubtedly be naysayers for the next phase of Tesla's evolution to a physical world AI company with autonomous vehicles and robots. 

Wrap-Up

The expert fallacy reminds us that expertise, while valuable, isn’t infallible. Experts excel when predicting "within known patterns" but falter when innovation disrupts the status quo, as seen in the cases of iPhone, Kodak, and Tesla. NASA’s Apollo team avoided this trap by prioritizing attitude over rigid expertise, fostering a culture where curmudgeons had no place. While experts deserve respect, it's a good practice to seek second opinions to guard against blind spots, provided it doesn’t devolve into opinion shopping. Innovation’s unpredictability demands humility and openness, qualities that allow visionaries to push past skepticism and achieve the impossible. As history shows, those who insist “it can’t be done” often watch from the sidelines as others prove them wrong.

50 Thousand Miles of Fun - Goodbye Tesla, Hello Tesla

From X to Y

The above photo is my 2016 Tesla Model X 90D at the Painted Hills of eastern Oregon. I owned this vehicle for almost 7 years, and I loved it.

We purchased this new in 2016, years before the Model 3 and Model Y were available. In 2016, when shopping for an EV, I knew that it was a risk. I had already owned a Nissan LEAF for several years, and it was becoming apparent that the thermal management in the LEAF was (let's just say) inadequate.

Tesla, on the other hand, was an EV-only company; they seemed to know what they were doing. The Model S had won several awards, and Tesla's vehicles looked great. I'd read about their Chief Technology Officer, JB Straubel, and his work on the Stanford solar-powered car for the American Solar Challenge race, as well as his EV conversion of a Porsche 944. His homemade conversion EV set a world electric vehicle racing record in 2000. JB had the technical bona fides.

Tesla was still a startup in 2016, and the Model X was not cheap. The Leaf was the first new car that I'd ever purchased. Now, was I really going to take a risk on a software-defined vehicle by a startup that could disappear tomorrow? After reading about JB, the Model S awards, and taking a test drive, I decided to go for it. I was convinced that Tesla knew what they were doing and that the company would survive and thrive.

Only after some career success, frugal living, and a couple of lucky investments (including TSLA) did I arrive at a financial point where I could afford to buy a new Tesla. So in 2016, I purchased the most expensive vehicle that I will likely ever buy in my life. A long-range Tesla Model X 90D. This purchase was more than just another car; it was an investment in progress.

Little did I know when I purchased it, that it would profoundly shift my perspective on vehicle ownership and the future of EVs and emission-free travel amid nature's wonders. 

Going through the configurator, there were a few decisions to make. 

How Many Seats?

Model X comes in 5, 6, and 7-seat configurations. I ordered the 5-seater, but they were initially only making the 6-seat variants. My Tesla-handler told me that I could wait 3 to 4 months for the 5-seat, or I could take the 6-seater now. We were down a vehicle in our driveway, so we went for the 6-seat option, and that turned out to be a great choice. It was not just about the seat count. The 6-seater has an open second row with pedestal seats. This gives far more legroom to the 3rd row. Plus, the 2nd row seats are plush captain's chairs; this is the configuration that I'd recommend.

The Adventure Begins

Our Model X arrived in September of 2016. During our 7 years together, we had many fun adventures. We brought Xmas trees home on top of that giant glass roof (with some good planning).

Together we've traveled to Grants Pass; eastern Oregon; Bend, OR; San Diego; Great Wolf Lodge; the dunes of Florence; Thor's Well; Crater Lake; Oregon Wildlife Safari; Butterfly Pavilion, Mount Hood, Cove Palisades; The Oregon Caves, and many other destinations.

A New Mindset

As I mentioned above, this was not my first EV. I had owned a Chevy S10EV, and this Model X was parked in our garage next to our LEAF when it first arrived. However, this was my first Tesla and my first long-range (249 miles) EV. With the two short-range EVs I'd owned, you had to have a plan before you unplugged. You either had to know that you were going less than half a charge away and then turning back, or you had to have a charging plan (with contingencies). With the X, however, you could just get in and drive. The Supercharger network was deployed and growing. Trips up and down the West Coast were easy.

This is when I started investing more in Tesla; they had the formula right. They didn't just make EVs; they made an ecosystem that made EV ownership easy and fun.

Goodbye

Over the years, our X became more than just a car; it was our family adventure companion.

In 2023, we became empty nesters, and we wouldn't need to transport half a soccer team, so we downsized to a Tesla Model Y with HW4/AI4 and FSD.

Trading in my beloved 2016 Tesla Model X 90D felt like bidding farewell to a steadfast companion who'd reshaped my world. This six-seater wasn't just a car; it was a dependable friend that carried us through epic adventures from Crater Lake's azure depths to the wild dunes of Florence, while teaching me the joy of sustainable travel. The goodbye left an irreplaceable void in my garage and my heart.

The Elephant In The Room

It's Time to Kick Big Oil’s Pet Out of Our Energy Future

Alright, folks, let’s talk about the giant, stomping, trunk-waving elephant in the room! And no, I’m not just talking about that awkward moment when your uncle brings up politics at Thanksgiving. I’m talking about the Republican Party’s mascot, that big ol’ pachyderm, lumbering around, pretending it doesn’t see the smoke billowing out of the fossil fuel industry’s chimneys. This elephant’s got a trunk full of denial and a hide thicker than a coal baron’s wallet, and it’s high time we kicked it out of the room when we’re deciding our energy future!

You see, this elephant’s been trained by Big Oil to sit pretty and ignore the fact that burning fossil fuels is choking the planet faster than a bad stand-up comic chokes on a punchline. We’re talking about human civilization teetering on the edge here! Sea levels are rising so fast, soon we’ll all need snorkels to check our mailboxes. Wildfires are turning forests into ash faster than you can say “air pollution.” Hurricanes are throwing tantrums like a toddler who missed naptime, and droughts are turning farmland into dustbowls. And what’s this elephant doing? Munching on campaign donations from oil lobbyists, that’s what! It’s not just an elephant in the room; it’s a politically captured elephant, dancing to the tune of fossil fuels’ fiddle while the world burns!

We can’t let this fossil-fuel-fetishizing beast decide when it’s “the right time” for its overlords to stop raking in profits. Oh, sure, they’ll tell you, “Just one more pipeline, one more oil rig, one more coal plant!” Meanwhile, the atmosphere is turning into a greenhouse gas dumping ground. We’re pumping pollutants like there’s no tomorrow, and guess what? If we keep this up, there won’t be a tomorrow! The science isn’t just screaming at us; it’s grabbing us by the collar and shaking us like a malfunctioning cocktail shaker!

And don’t let this elephant fool you with its tired old trunk-twirl about “energy costs.” Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy out there! Yeah, you heard me, CHEAPEST! It’s like finding a dollar burger that tastes great and is actually good for you. The sun’s just sitting up there, beaming free energy, and we’re still burning dinosaur juice like it’s 1950. Electric vehicles? Their market share’s growing faster than my blood pressure watching another climate conference get derailed by oil lobbyists. Battery prices are dropping every year, and soon EVs will be cheaper than those gas-guzzling relics we call infernal combustion. But this elephant’s still stomping around, muttering about “energy independence” while chained at the ankle to Big Oil.

           

The GOP’s elephant is stomping on solar panels while Big Oil laughs all the way to the bank!

These elephants are captured, folks! They’re not just beholden to the fossil fuel industry; they’re practically its mascot! And we’re the ones paying for it! Taxpayers are shelling out subsidies to prop up a system that’s forcing us to keep buying gas, diesel, and coal like we’re addicted to losing. Every time you fill up your tank, you’re not just burning fuel; you’re burning your future! Those greenhouse gases aren’t just warming the planet; they’re cooking our kids’ chances at a decent life. And for what? So some CEO can buy a third yacht? I’m sorry, but I don’t want my tax dollars subsidizing a system that’s turning our coastlines into underwater aquariums and our forests into bonfires!

The GOP is now the Greedy Oil Party. It’s time to grab this elephant by the ear and drag it out of the room. We need an energy future that doesn’t bow to the oil barons.

Solar, wind, EVs; these aren’t just buzzwords, they’re the lifeboats we need to get off this sinking ship. The technology’s here, it’s cheaper, and it’s cleaner. So why are we still listening to an elephant that’s been trained to protect the very thing that’s killing us? Let’s stop subsidizing pollution and start investing in a future where we’re not all underwater, roasting, or breathing smoke. Because if we don’t, that elephant’s not just gonna be in the room, it’s gonna be sitting on our chests, laughing, while the planet chokes. And trust me, folks, that’s no laughing matter!

Electrify Your Life: Get Amped for the Future!

Image by ChatGPT

Ready to zap your way into a future that’s cleaner, greener, and a whole lot of fun? Buckle up, because we’re about to get this party started with a jolt! We’re connecting to the world of electric living, where you can get charged up (literally), amped, and leave fossil fuels in the dust. It’s not just practical. It’s shocking!

Why Going Electric is a Thrill:

• Electric Vehicles: Step on the Lightning Pedal
  Say goodbye to the boring gas pedal and hello to the lightning pedal. Stomp on it, and you’ll feel a surge of power that’ll make your old ride jealous. Electric vehicles (EVs) deliver instant zip, whisper-quiet hum, and a grin-inducing thrill. Charging’s a breeze too. Just plug in at home while you snooze. No more gas station pit stops! And if you’ve got solar panels? You’re rolling on sunshine, baby. Range anxiety? Pfft. Modern EVs have juice to spare.
• Heat Pumps: Warmth with a Cool Twist
  Heat pumps are the unsung heroes of home comfort. These wizards snatch heat from the air (yes, even in winter) to keep you toasty, no methane guzzling required. Want to stay cool in the summer? The same smart tech can pump the heat out of your house. Quiet, efficient, and fume-free. Power them with solar, and you’re an HVAC rockstar. Who needs a furnace when you’ve got this kind of magic?
• Induction Cooktops: Cooking with a Spark
  Ditch the gas stove and ignite your kitchen with an induction cooktop. These sleek wonders heat up instantly with electric precision, offering a fume-free cooking experience. Pair them with solar power, and you’re whipping up meals with pure sunshine energy. Fast, safe, and stylish—cooking has never been this electrifying!
• Solar: The Brightest Idea Yet
  Why just use electricity when you can make it? Slap some solar panels on your roof, and you’re cooking with sunshine. Figuratively and maybe literally. It’s the ultimate power-up for your EV, heat pump, and induction cooktop combo. Lower bills, zero emissions, and a nice “I told you so” for everyone who doubted you. Solar’s not just energy. It’s a lifestyle. Get amped about it!
• Electric Lawn Mowers & Yard Equipment: Green Yard Power
  Transform your yard work with electric lawn mowers, trimmers, and other equipment. Say goodbye to noisy gas engines and hello to quiet, eco-friendly power. Charge them up with solar energy, and your lawn will be the greenest in the neighborhood (in more ways than one). 

Quick Sparks to Get You Buzzing:

• EVs: No gas, no fuss. Just plug in and zoom off.
• Heat Pumps: Cozy in winter, cool in summer. No indoor igloo required!
• Induction Cooktops: Fast, fume-free cooking with a solar boost.
• Solar: Free power from the sun. Beat that, utility company!
• Electric Yard Gear: Quiet mowing and trimming powered by sunshine.
• The Trifecta: Save cash, save the planet, and look cooler than a lightning bolt in shades.

Flip the Switch and Get Amped

This isn’t just about gadgets. It’s about living with a little extra spark. Every time you step on that lightning pedal, spark your heat pump to life, cook on an induction cooktop, or mow with an electric lawn mower, you’re not just saving energy; you’re riding the wave of an electric revolution. So, ready to get charged up and join the fun? Plug in, get amped, and let’s zap our way together into a future free from fossil fuels. It’s going to be one electrifying ride!

Tesla Reaches 1 Million Powerwalls: Revolutionizing Home Energy Storage

Tesla's Milestone: Manufacturing the 1 Millionth Powerwall

UPDATE: The 1-millionth Powerwall was installed on 9/9/2025, sometime before Noon Eastern/9AM Pacific time. 

Tesla has achieved a massive milestone in sustainable energy by manufacturing its 1 millionth Powerwall. The Powerwall is a home battery system designed to store solar energy, provide backup power, and integrate with the grid. This achievement, announced in early September 2025, underscores Tesla's rapid growth in the energy storage sector. The 1 millionth unit is set to be installed soon, and all Tesla Powerwall owners can track the progress in the Tesla app with a new feature called "Road to 1 Million". As I write this, the app reports that 998,814 Powerwalls have been installed. With about 600 Powerwalls installed per day, lucky number 1,000,000 will be powered on soon and soaking up sunshine. 

If you don't have a Powerwall and want to see the Road to 1 Million, I've included screenshots below.

It will join a global fleet that spans over 30 countries and contributes to a cleaner, more resilient energy future. Since the Powerwall's debut in 2015, production has accelerated dramatically, with the company reaching 500,000 units in its first eight years and now capable of producing over 700,000 annually. This expansion reflects increasing demand for reliable home energy solutions amid rising concerns about grid instability, climate change, and energy costs.

Key Specifications and Cumulative Impact

The Powerwall, particularly in its latest Powerwall 3 iterations, offers robust specifications that make it a cornerstone of residential energy storage. Each unit has an energy capacity of 13.5 kWh and delivers up to 11.5 kW of continuous power output. Scaling to 1 million units reveals the immense collective potential.

The total energy storage capacity of these 1 million Powerwalls is 13.5 GWh, enough to power millions of homes during peak demand or outages. The combined power output capacity stands at approximately 6.7 GW, sufficient to supply electricity to an entire country like New Zealand for a day. These batteries have already demonstrated their value by providing blackout protection during over 21 million power outages worldwide. Assuming an average outage duration of 8 hours, based on typical US grid disruptions, this equates to roughly 168 million hours of blackout protection provided to date.

Each Powerwall contains around 824 lithium-ion cells, similar to those used in Tesla's electric vehicles. Across 1 million units, this totals approximately 824 million cells, highlighting the scale of manufacturing and the integration of Tesla's battery technology ecosystem.

To illustrate the aggregate impact, consider the following table:

Metric	per Powerwall	Total for 1 Million Units
Energy Capacity	13.5 kWh	13.5 GWh
Power Output (Average)	6.7 kW	6.7 GW
Lithium-Ion Cells	~824	~824 million
Equivalent Megapacks	--	~3,461 (based on 3.9 MWh each)

This table underscores how 1 million Powerwalls rival large-scale systems, with the fleet equivalent to about 3,461 Tesla Megapacks.

Role in Virtual Power Plants and Grid Stability

Powerwalls play a pivotal role in Virtual Power Plants (VPPs), networks of distributed batteries that act as a unified power source to stabilize the grid. In programs like Tesla's VPP with PG&E in California or in Puerto Rico, where over 100,000 Powerwalls are enrolled, these units discharge stored energy during high-demand periods or emergencies. For instance, in Puerto Rico's VPP, involving more than 63,000 Powerwalls, the system has prevented outages and balanced supply during storms, contributing up to 150 MW of support. This enhances grid stability by reducing reliance on fossil fuel peaker plants, lowering emissions, and preventing blackouts. In 2024 alone, Tesla's VPP events helped avoid grid strain, saving utilities millions in infrastructure costs and providing participants with incentives, such as $2 per kWh discharged in some programs.

Timeshifting Grid Usage for Efficiency and Savings

Powerwalls enable energy timeshifting, where users charge batteries with solar or during off-peak hours when electricity rates are cheaper and discharge during peak times to avoid higher costs. This arbitrage can yield significant savings, with users in regions like California reporting annual reductions of $500 to $1,000 on utility bills. Pairing Powerwalls with solar panels to store excess daytime generation for evening use, effectively cutting peak-hour consumption to zero. This not only lowers individual expenses but also eases grid load, promoting overall efficiency and reducing the need for costly upgrades.

Benefits of Distributed Storage

Distributing storage across millions of homes offers advantages over centralized systems, including enhanced resilience against failures, as no single point of vulnerability exists. It minimizes transmission losses, which can reach 5% to 10% in centralized setups, and allows for quicker deployment without large land requirements. Distributed systems like Powerwalls empower consumers with energy independence, foster community-level stability during disasters, and integrate seamlessly with renewables, accelerating the transition to a low-carbon grid.

In conclusion, Tesla's production of the 1 millionth Powerwall marks a turning point in democratizing energy storage. With vast cumulative capacity, grid-supporting features, and user benefits, these units are transforming how we generate, store, and consume power. As adoption grows, they promise a more sustainable and reliable energy landscape for generations to come.

If you'd like a Powerwall or two, you can use my referral code: ts.la/patrick7819

Tipping Points of Tomorrow: The Future of AI, Clean Energy, and Biotech by 2050

The Future of Three Tipping Point Technologies: AI, Renewable Energy, and Biomedical Science

To predict the next 25 years for artificial intelligence (AI), renewable energy, and biomedical science we'll look at historical tipping points like electricity, automobiles, personal computers, and the internet. By 2050, AI and biomedical advances are poised to transform society as much, if not more, than their predecessors shaped the world we live in now. Let's explore their likely impacts on economic, social, and ethical dimensions.

Historical Context: Lessons from Past Tipping Points

Understanding historical technologies provides insights into how current tipping points might unfold:

• Electricity (Late 19th Century): Enabled industrialization and powered homes, requiring infrastructure like grids. Adoption took decades due to cost and accessibility.
• Automobiles (Early 20th Century): Mass production made cars affordable, reshaping urban planning. Infrastructure (roads, fuel stations) was key, but pollution emerged as a challenge.
• Personal Computers (1970s–1980s): Affordable PCs and user-friendly interfaces revolutionized work and laid the digital economy’s foundation. Software ecosystems drove adoption.
• Internet (1990s–2000s): The web and broadband transformed communication and commerce. Open standards accelerated growth, but privacy and inequality became issues.

Common Patterns: Tipping points require affordability, infrastructure, and accessibility. They create new industries, disrupt existing ones, and introduce societal challenges. Progress is non-linear, with breakthroughs followed by refinement.

1. Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Current State (2025)

AI is shifting from specialized applications (e.g., image recognition) to general-purpose systems. Large language models and reinforcement learning drive applications in healthcare, education, and logistics. Challenges include computational costs, ethical concerns, and limited access in developing regions.

Historical Parallel

AI mirrors personal computers’ shift from mainframes to desktops and the internet’s democratization of information, relying on data and connectivity.

Likely Developments by 2050

• Technological Advancements:
  • 2025–2035: AI becomes cheaper, adopted in healthcare, education, and logistics. Regulatory frameworks emerge.
  • 2035–2045: Artificial general intelligence (AGI) or near-AGI systems transform industries. Developing nations adopt AI.
  • 2045–2050: AI is ubiquitous, like electricity, with personalized assistants and global integration.
• Economic and Social Impacts:
  • Jobs: Automation displaces routine tasks but creates roles in AI development and ethics, requiring new skill development.
  • Accessibility: Cloud-based AI lowers costs, enabling adoption in developing nations by the 2040s.
  • Inequality: Wealth gaps may widen without equitable access policies.
• Challenges:
  • Ethics: Bias, privacy, and misuse (e.g., deepfakes) drive regulations by the 2030s.
  • Energy: AI’s computational needs require renewable integration.
  • Adaptation: Public trust varies, with resistance in some regions.

Key Enablers: Advances in computing, data, and connectivity will drive AI’s growth, similar to infrastructure for electricity and automobiles.

2. Renewable Energy

Current State (2025)

Renewables (solar, wind, hydro) account for ~30% of global electricity, with falling costs. Battery storage and smart grids address intermittency, but fossil fuels dominate. Policy support and corporate commitments accelerate adoption, though infrastructure and resource challenges persist.

Historical Parallel

Renewables resemble electricity’s need for grids and automobiles’ reliance on fuel stations, requiring storage and infrastructure to scale.

Likely Developments by 2050

• Technological Advancements:
  • 2025–2035: Renewables surpass coal and gas; storage costs fall; policies accelerate decarbonization.
  • 2035–2045: Renewables reach 70%+ of electricity; fusion pilots begin; decentralized systems scale in developing nations.
  • 2045–2050: Near-complete clean energy transition in developed nations; fusion commercializes; fossil fuel use drops below 20%.
• Economic and Social Impacts:
  • Transition: Renewables dominate by 2040, reducing fossil fuel reliance.
  • Jobs: Millions of jobs in manufacturing and maintenance, especially in developing nations.
  • Access: Off-grid solar reduces energy poverty by the 2040s.
• Challenges:
  • Infrastructure: Grid upgrades and land use face resistance.
  • Resources: Rare earth metal shortages require recycling or alternatives.
  • Geopolitics: Oil-dependent economies face disruption.

Key Enablers: Policy incentives, private investment, and storage innovations will drive the transition, like roads for automobiles.

3. Biomedical Science

Current State (2025)

Gene editing (e.g., CRISPR), mRNA vaccines, and AI-driven diagnostics are transforming healthcare. Wearables enable real-time monitoring, but ethical, regulatory, and access challenges remain.

Historical Parallel

Biomedical science mirrors the internet’s democratization of information and automobiles’ mobility revolution, requiring infrastructure like hospitals and data systems.

Likely Developments by 2050

• Technological Advancements:
  • 2025–2035: Gene therapies and AI diagnostics become mainstream in developed nations; regulations evolve.
  • 2035–2045: Regenerative medicine and neural interfaces scale; developing nations adopt basic biotech.
  • 2045–2050: Biomedical advancements are widely accessible, transforming health and longevity.
• Economic and Social Impacts:
  • Healthcare: Shift to preventive care reduces costs and improves outcomes.
  • Lifespan: Life expectancy exceeds 90 in developed nations by 2050.
  • Access: Affordable diagnostics reach developing nations by the 2040s.
• Challenges:
  • Ethics: Gene editing and cognitive enhancement raise equity and identity concerns.
  • Inequality: High costs may limit access initially, creating a biomedical divide.
  • Regulation: Global cooperation needed to balance innovation and safety.

Key Enablers: AI integration, data infrastructure, and global health policies will drive progress, like standards for electricity and the internet.

Synthesis and Broader Implications

• Convergence: AI will optimize renewables and biomedical advances, while renewables power AI and biomedical infrastructure.
• Societal Shifts: New industries will surpass traditional sectors, with longer lifespans, remote work, and sustainable cities by 2050.
• Global Dynamics: Developed nations lead, but equitable access requires cooperation. Developing nations may leapfrog to decentralized solutions.
• Risks: Ethical, environmental, and inequality challenges need coordinated governance.

Conclusion

By 2050, AI, renewable energy, and biomedical science will be as integral as electricity, transforming economies and societies. AI will become ubiquitous, renewables will dominate energy, and biomedical advances will redefine health. These tipping points will shape a future of unprecedented opportunity, provided we navigate their risks wisely.