Why The Experts Are Wrong About Tesla (repeatedly)

The Expert Fallacy and Why Predictions Fail in the Face of Innovation

The expert fallacy is a logical error where an argument is deemed true simply because an expert endorses it. This fallacy assumes that expertise guarantees accuracy, ignoring the reality that even the most knowledgeable individuals can be wrong, especially when predicting outcomes in novel or disruptive situations. While experts excel at forecasting when events follow established patterns, their predictions often falter when innovation introduces uncharted variables. This gap explains why experts misjudged transformative developments like the iPhone, digital photography, and Tesla’s rise, and why a culture of open-mindedness is vital for breakthroughs.

Experts are invaluable when problems align with historical trends. For instance, a seasoned economist can predict market cycles based on decades of data, or a civil engineer can forecast bridge wear using proven models. Their deep knowledge shines in stable, linear systems. However, when innovation disrupts these patterns, their predictions can be worse than random guesses. Innovation thrives on non-linear leaps, new technologies, and unexpected shifts that defy conventional frameworks. 

Cognitive biases compound this issue: confirmation bias leads experts to favor familiar data, while the curse of knowledge narrows their perspective, making them miss broader possibilities. This is why experts often become curmudgeons or Luddites, dismissing bold ideas with the conviction that “it can’t be done.” As the saying goes, “People saying something can’t be done should stay out of the way of people who are doing it.”

Historical examples illustrate this vividly. In 2007, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer ridiculed the iPhone, predicting its failure due to its high price and lack of a physical keyboard. Anchored to the BlackBerry and Nokia-dominated market, he couldn’t foresee how touchscreens and app ecosystems would redefine smartphones. Similarly, Kodak’s engineers, despite inventing the digital camera in the 1970s, dismissed digital photography, clinging to film’s dominance. Their expertise blinded them to a paradigm shift, leading to Kodak’s decline. These cases show how experts, steeped in current realities, struggle to envision disruptive futures.

Case Study: The Apollo Program

The NASA Apollo program demonstrated how attitude can trump rigid expertise. While technical skills were essential for the lunar missions, NASA prioritized a collaborative, optimistic mindset, informally dubbed the “no curmudgeons rule.” The young team, averaging just 28 years old, faced unprecedented challenges, from landing on the Moon to saving Apollo 13 after an oxygen tank explosion. Leaders like Gene Kranz and Chris Kraft cultivated a culture where creative problem-solving was encouraged and negativity or resistance to new ideas was unwelcome. During Apollo 13, engineers improvised a life-saving CO2 scrubber using duct tape and spare parts, a feat that required open-minded problem-solving over skeptical caution. This ethos allowed NASA to embrace uncertainty and achieve the impossible, showing that innovation demands flexibility, not just credentials.

This doesn’t mean experts should be ignored. Their insights are critical, especially in domains where patterns hold, like medicine or structural engineering. A heart surgeon’s diagnosis or a seismologist’s earthquake risk assessment carries weight for good reason. However, there’s no harm in seeking a second opinion to challenge assumptions, particularly when stakes are high or solutions feel uncertain. The danger lies in taking this too far. Beware of slipping into “opinion shopping,” where one seeks experts who merely echo their own views. This self-selection breeds bias and undermines critical thinking. The key is to balance respect for expertise with openness to diverse perspectives, especially from outsiders less tethered to conventional wisdom.

Tesla: A Case Study in Defying Expert Predictions

Tesla’s journey over the past two decades is a masterclass in how innovation outpaces expert forecasts. Auto industry analysts and stock experts repeatedly underestimated Tesla, anchored to the norms of legacy automakers like GM and Toyota. In the 2000s, they dismissed the Tesla Roadster as a niche product, arguing that electric vehicles (EVs) lacked the scale, infrastructure, or consumer demand to compete. By 2015, as the Model S gained traction, analysts like Barclays’ Brian Johnson predicted Tesla’s failure, citing insufficient capital and manufacturing expertise. They didn’t grasp Tesla’s tech-driven approach: vertical integration of batteries, software, and charging networks, coupled with over-the-air updates that turned cars into evolving platforms.

Skeptics also misjudged EV adoption. In 2010, Goldman Sachs forecasted EVs would remain under 5% of US sales by 2020, missing the impact of falling battery costs (down 90% from 2010 to 2020) and Tesla’s Supercharger network. Confirmation bias led analysts to focus on Tesla’s early losses and quality issues, while their deep knowledge of traditional auto margins (5-10%) made them undervalue Tesla’s tech-like growth potential (20%+ margins by 2023). Even bullish experts, like RBC’s Joseph Spak, predicted bankruptcy risks in 2018 during Model 3 production challenges, underestimating Musk’s ability to raise capital (over $20 billion), problem-solve, and rapidly iterate. Tesla’s Gigafactory was mocked by Morgan Stanley in 2014, yet it has become a cornerstone of Tesla's cost advantage.

It was easy to predict Tesla's failure because no other company had succeeded at the things they were attempting. Musk’s vision and execution defied curmudgeonly skepticism. Analysts like JPMorgan’s Ryan Brinkman set low price targets in 2016, focusing on missed deadlines rather than Tesla’s brand power and network effects. Early adopters fueled mainstream demand, turning Tesla into a cultural phenomenon. Meanwhile, outsiders like ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood, less bound by auto industry dogma, predicted Tesla’s meteoric rise, targeting $4,000 per share (or $266 split-adjusted) by 2023 when others scoffed. As I write this, Tesla's stock is above $400 per share, well ahead of ARK's prediction. Tesla’s success shows how innovation, driven by those “doing it,” can silence naysayers.

Just as many experts have been wrong about Tesla in the past, there will undoubtedly be naysayers for the next phase of Tesla's evolution to a physical world AI company with autonomous vehicles and robots. 

Wrap-Up

The expert fallacy reminds us that expertise, while valuable, isn’t infallible. Experts excel when predicting "within known patterns" but falter when innovation disrupts the status quo, as seen in the cases of iPhone, Kodak, and Tesla. NASA’s Apollo team avoided this trap by prioritizing attitude over rigid expertise, fostering a culture where curmudgeons had no place. While experts deserve respect, it's a good practice to seek second opinions to guard against blind spots, provided it doesn’t devolve into opinion shopping. Innovation’s unpredictability demands humility and openness, qualities that allow visionaries to push past skepticism and achieve the impossible. As history shows, those who insist “it can’t be done” often watch from the sidelines as others prove them wrong.

50 Thousand Miles of Fun - Goodbye Tesla, Hello Tesla

From X to Y

The above photo is my 2016 Tesla Model X 90D at the Painted Hills of eastern Oregon. I owned this vehicle for almost 7 years, and I loved it.

We purchased this new in 2016, years before the Model 3 and Model Y were available. In 2016, when shopping for an EV, I knew that it was a risk. I had already owned a Nissan LEAF for several years, and it was becoming apparent that the thermal management in the LEAF was (let's just say) inadequate.

Tesla, on the other hand, was an EV-only company; they seemed to know what they were doing. The Model S had won several awards, and Tesla's vehicles looked great. I'd read about their Chief Technology Officer, JB Straubel, and his work on the Stanford solar-powered car for the American Solar Challenge race, as well as his EV conversion of a Porsche 944. His homemade conversion EV set a world electric vehicle racing record in 2000. JB had the technical bona fides.

Tesla was still a startup in 2016, and the Model X was not cheap. The Leaf was the first new car that I'd ever purchased. Now, was I really going to take a risk on a software-defined vehicle by a startup that could disappear tomorrow? After reading about JB, the Model S awards, and taking a test drive, I decided to go for it. I was convinced that Tesla knew what they were doing and that the company would survive and thrive.

Only after some career success, frugal living, and a couple of lucky investments (including TSLA) did I arrive at a financial point where I could afford to buy a new Tesla. So in 2016, I purchased the most expensive vehicle that I will likely ever buy in my life. A long-range Tesla Model X 90D. This purchase was more than just another car; it was an investment in progress.

Little did I know when I purchased it, that it would profoundly shift my perspective on vehicle ownership and the future of EVs and emission-free travel amid nature's wonders. 

Going through the configurator, there were a few decisions to make. 

How Many Seats?

Model X comes in 5, 6, and 7-seat configurations. I ordered the 5-seater, but they were initially only making the 6-seat variants. My Tesla-handler told me that I could wait 3 to 4 months for the 5-seat, or I could take the 6-seater now. We were down a vehicle in our driveway, so we went for the 6-seat option, and that turned out to be a great choice. It was not just about the seat count. The 6-seater has an open second row with pedestal seats. This gives far more legroom to the 3rd row. Plus, the 2nd row seats are plush captain's chairs; this is the configuration that I'd recommend.

The Adventure Begins

Our Model X arrived in September of 2016. During our 7 years together, we had many fun adventures. We brought Xmas trees home on top of that giant glass roof (with some good planning).

Together we've traveled to Grants Pass; eastern Oregon; Bend, OR; San Diego; Great Wolf Lodge; the dunes of Florence; Thor's Well; Crater Lake; Oregon Wildlife Safari; Butterfly Pavilion, Mount Hood, Cove Palisades; The Oregon Caves, and many other destinations.

A New Mindset

As I mentioned above, this was not my first EV. I had owned a Chevy S10EV, and this Model X was parked in our garage next to our LEAF when it first arrived. However, this was my first Tesla and my first long-range (249 miles) EV. With the two short-range EVs I'd owned, you had to have a plan before you unplugged. You either had to know that you were going less than half a charge away and then turning back, or you had to have a charging plan (with contingencies). With the X, however, you could just get in and drive. The Supercharger network was deployed and growing. Trips up and down the West Coast were easy.

This is when I started investing more in Tesla; they had the formula right. They didn't just make EVs; they made an ecosystem that made EV ownership easy and fun.

Goodbye

Over the years, our X became more than just a car; it was our family adventure companion.

In 2023, we became empty nesters, and we wouldn't need to transport half a soccer team, so we downsized to a Tesla Model Y with HW4/AI4 and FSD.

Trading in my beloved 2016 Tesla Model X 90D felt like bidding farewell to a steadfast companion who'd reshaped my world. This six-seater wasn't just a car; it was a dependable friend that carried us through epic adventures from Crater Lake's azure depths to the wild dunes of Florence, while teaching me the joy of sustainable travel. The goodbye left an irreplaceable void in my garage and my heart.

The Elephant In The Room

It's Time to Kick Big Oil’s Pet Out of Our Energy Future

Alright, folks, let’s talk about the giant, stomping, trunk-waving elephant in the room! And no, I’m not just talking about that awkward moment when your uncle brings up politics at Thanksgiving. I’m talking about the Republican Party’s mascot, that big ol’ pachyderm, lumbering around, pretending it doesn’t see the smoke billowing out of the fossil fuel industry’s chimneys. This elephant’s got a trunk full of denial and a hide thicker than a coal baron’s wallet, and it’s high time we kicked it out of the room when we’re deciding our energy future!

You see, this elephant’s been trained by Big Oil to sit pretty and ignore the fact that burning fossil fuels is choking the planet faster than a bad stand-up comic chokes on a punchline. We’re talking about human civilization teetering on the edge here! Sea levels are rising so fast, soon we’ll all need snorkels to check our mailboxes. Wildfires are turning forests into ash faster than you can say “air pollution.” Hurricanes are throwing tantrums like a toddler who missed naptime, and droughts are turning farmland into dustbowls. And what’s this elephant doing? Munching on campaign donations from oil lobbyists, that’s what! It’s not just an elephant in the room; it’s a politically captured elephant, dancing to the tune of fossil fuels’ fiddle while the world burns!

We can’t let this fossil-fuel-fetishizing beast decide when it’s “the right time” for its overlords to stop raking in profits. Oh, sure, they’ll tell you, “Just one more pipeline, one more oil rig, one more coal plant!” Meanwhile, the atmosphere is turning into a greenhouse gas dumping ground. We’re pumping pollutants like there’s no tomorrow, and guess what? If we keep this up, there won’t be a tomorrow! The science isn’t just screaming at us; it’s grabbing us by the collar and shaking us like a malfunctioning cocktail shaker!

And don’t let this elephant fool you with its tired old trunk-twirl about “energy costs.” Solar power is now the cheapest form of energy out there! Yeah, you heard me, CHEAPEST! It’s like finding a dollar burger that tastes great and is actually good for you. The sun’s just sitting up there, beaming free energy, and we’re still burning dinosaur juice like it’s 1950. Electric vehicles? Their market share’s growing faster than my blood pressure watching another climate conference get derailed by oil lobbyists. Battery prices are dropping every year, and soon EVs will be cheaper than those gas-guzzling relics we call infernal combustion. But this elephant’s still stomping around, muttering about “energy independence” while chained at the ankle to Big Oil.

           

The GOP’s elephant is stomping on solar panels while Big Oil laughs all the way to the bank!

These elephants are captured, folks! They’re not just beholden to the fossil fuel industry; they’re practically its mascot! And we’re the ones paying for it! Taxpayers are shelling out subsidies to prop up a system that’s forcing us to keep buying gas, diesel, and coal like we’re addicted to losing. Every time you fill up your tank, you’re not just burning fuel; you’re burning your future! Those greenhouse gases aren’t just warming the planet; they’re cooking our kids’ chances at a decent life. And for what? So some CEO can buy a third yacht? I’m sorry, but I don’t want my tax dollars subsidizing a system that’s turning our coastlines into underwater aquariums and our forests into bonfires!

The GOP is now the Greedy Oil Party. It’s time to grab this elephant by the ear and drag it out of the room. We need an energy future that doesn’t bow to the oil barons.

Solar, wind, EVs; these aren’t just buzzwords, they’re the lifeboats we need to get off this sinking ship. The technology’s here, it’s cheaper, and it’s cleaner. So why are we still listening to an elephant that’s been trained to protect the very thing that’s killing us? Let’s stop subsidizing pollution and start investing in a future where we’re not all underwater, roasting, or breathing smoke. Because if we don’t, that elephant’s not just gonna be in the room, it’s gonna be sitting on our chests, laughing, while the planet chokes. And trust me, folks, that’s no laughing matter!

Electrify Your Life: Get Amped for the Future!

Image by ChatGPT

Ready to zap your way into a future that’s cleaner, greener, and a whole lot of fun? Buckle up, because we’re about to get this party started with a jolt! We’re connecting to the world of electric living, where you can get charged up (literally), amped, and leave fossil fuels in the dust. It’s not just practical. It’s shocking!

Why Going Electric is a Thrill:

• Electric Vehicles: Step on the Lightning Pedal
  Say goodbye to the boring gas pedal and hello to the lightning pedal. Stomp on it, and you’ll feel a surge of power that’ll make your old ride jealous. Electric vehicles (EVs) deliver instant zip, whisper-quiet hum, and a grin-inducing thrill. Charging’s a breeze too. Just plug in at home while you snooze. No more gas station pit stops! And if you’ve got solar panels? You’re rolling on sunshine, baby. Range anxiety? Pfft. Modern EVs have juice to spare.
• Heat Pumps: Warmth with a Cool Twist
  Heat pumps are the unsung heroes of home comfort. These wizards snatch heat from the air (yes, even in winter) to keep you toasty, no methane guzzling required. Want to stay cool in the summer? The same smart tech can pump the heat out of your house. Quiet, efficient, and fume-free. Power them with solar, and you’re an HVAC rockstar. Who needs a furnace when you’ve got this kind of magic?
• Induction Cooktops: Cooking with a Spark
  Ditch the gas stove and ignite your kitchen with an induction cooktop. These sleek wonders heat up instantly with electric precision, offering a fume-free cooking experience. Pair them with solar power, and you’re whipping up meals with pure sunshine energy. Fast, safe, and stylish—cooking has never been this electrifying!
• Solar: The Brightest Idea Yet
  Why just use electricity when you can make it? Slap some solar panels on your roof, and you’re cooking with sunshine. Figuratively and maybe literally. It’s the ultimate power-up for your EV, heat pump, and induction cooktop combo. Lower bills, zero emissions, and a nice “I told you so” for everyone who doubted you. Solar’s not just energy. It’s a lifestyle. Get amped about it!
• Electric Lawn Mowers & Yard Equipment: Green Yard Power
  Transform your yard work with electric lawn mowers, trimmers, and other equipment. Say goodbye to noisy gas engines and hello to quiet, eco-friendly power. Charge them up with solar energy, and your lawn will be the greenest in the neighborhood (in more ways than one). 

Quick Sparks to Get You Buzzing:

• EVs: No gas, no fuss. Just plug in and zoom off.
• Heat Pumps: Cozy in winter, cool in summer. No indoor igloo required!
• Induction Cooktops: Fast, fume-free cooking with a solar boost.
• Solar: Free power from the sun. Beat that, utility company!
• Electric Yard Gear: Quiet mowing and trimming powered by sunshine.
• The Trifecta: Save cash, save the planet, and look cooler than a lightning bolt in shades.

Flip the Switch and Get Amped

This isn’t just about gadgets. It’s about living with a little extra spark. Every time you step on that lightning pedal, spark your heat pump to life, cook on an induction cooktop, or mow with an electric lawn mower, you’re not just saving energy; you’re riding the wave of an electric revolution. So, ready to get charged up and join the fun? Plug in, get amped, and let’s zap our way together into a future free from fossil fuels. It’s going to be one electrifying ride!

Tesla Reaches 1 Million Powerwalls: Revolutionizing Home Energy Storage

Tesla's Milestone: Manufacturing the 1 Millionth Powerwall

UPDATE: The 1-millionth Powerwall was installed on 9/9/2025, sometime before Noon Eastern/9AM Pacific time. 

Tesla has achieved a massive milestone in sustainable energy by manufacturing its 1 millionth Powerwall. The Powerwall is a home battery system designed to store solar energy, provide backup power, and integrate with the grid. This achievement, announced in early September 2025, underscores Tesla's rapid growth in the energy storage sector. The 1 millionth unit is set to be installed soon, and all Tesla Powerwall owners can track the progress in the Tesla app with a new feature called "Road to 1 Million". As I write this, the app reports that 998,814 Powerwalls have been installed. With about 600 Powerwalls installed per day, lucky number 1,000,000 will be powered on soon and soaking up sunshine. 

If you don't have a Powerwall and want to see the Road to 1 Million, I've included screenshots below.

It will join a global fleet that spans over 30 countries and contributes to a cleaner, more resilient energy future. Since the Powerwall's debut in 2015, production has accelerated dramatically, with the company reaching 500,000 units in its first eight years and now capable of producing over 700,000 annually. This expansion reflects increasing demand for reliable home energy solutions amid rising concerns about grid instability, climate change, and energy costs.

Key Specifications and Cumulative Impact

The Powerwall, particularly in its latest Powerwall 3 iterations, offers robust specifications that make it a cornerstone of residential energy storage. Each unit has an energy capacity of 13.5 kWh and delivers up to 11.5 kW of continuous power output. Scaling to 1 million units reveals the immense collective potential.

The total energy storage capacity of these 1 million Powerwalls is 13.5 GWh, enough to power millions of homes during peak demand or outages. The combined power output capacity stands at approximately 6.7 GW, sufficient to supply electricity to an entire country like New Zealand for a day. These batteries have already demonstrated their value by providing blackout protection during over 21 million power outages worldwide. Assuming an average outage duration of 8 hours, based on typical US grid disruptions, this equates to roughly 168 million hours of blackout protection provided to date.

Each Powerwall contains around 824 lithium-ion cells, similar to those used in Tesla's electric vehicles. Across 1 million units, this totals approximately 824 million cells, highlighting the scale of manufacturing and the integration of Tesla's battery technology ecosystem.

To illustrate the aggregate impact, consider the following table:

Metric	per Powerwall	Total for 1 Million Units
Energy Capacity	13.5 kWh	13.5 GWh
Power Output (Average)	6.7 kW	6.7 GW
Lithium-Ion Cells	~824	~824 million
Equivalent Megapacks	--	~3,461 (based on 3.9 MWh each)

This table underscores how 1 million Powerwalls rival large-scale systems, with the fleet equivalent to about 3,461 Tesla Megapacks.

Role in Virtual Power Plants and Grid Stability

Powerwalls play a pivotal role in Virtual Power Plants (VPPs), networks of distributed batteries that act as a unified power source to stabilize the grid. In programs like Tesla's VPP with PG&E in California or in Puerto Rico, where over 100,000 Powerwalls are enrolled, these units discharge stored energy during high-demand periods or emergencies. For instance, in Puerto Rico's VPP, involving more than 63,000 Powerwalls, the system has prevented outages and balanced supply during storms, contributing up to 150 MW of support. This enhances grid stability by reducing reliance on fossil fuel peaker plants, lowering emissions, and preventing blackouts. In 2024 alone, Tesla's VPP events helped avoid grid strain, saving utilities millions in infrastructure costs and providing participants with incentives, such as $2 per kWh discharged in some programs.

Timeshifting Grid Usage for Efficiency and Savings

Powerwalls enable energy timeshifting, where users charge batteries with solar or during off-peak hours when electricity rates are cheaper and discharge during peak times to avoid higher costs. This arbitrage can yield significant savings, with users in regions like California reporting annual reductions of $500 to $1,000 on utility bills. Pairing Powerwalls with solar panels to store excess daytime generation for evening use, effectively cutting peak-hour consumption to zero. This not only lowers individual expenses but also eases grid load, promoting overall efficiency and reducing the need for costly upgrades.

Benefits of Distributed Storage

Distributing storage across millions of homes offers advantages over centralized systems, including enhanced resilience against failures, as no single point of vulnerability exists. It minimizes transmission losses, which can reach 5% to 10% in centralized setups, and allows for quicker deployment without large land requirements. Distributed systems like Powerwalls empower consumers with energy independence, foster community-level stability during disasters, and integrate seamlessly with renewables, accelerating the transition to a low-carbon grid.

In conclusion, Tesla's production of the 1 millionth Powerwall marks a turning point in democratizing energy storage. With vast cumulative capacity, grid-supporting features, and user benefits, these units are transforming how we generate, store, and consume power. As adoption grows, they promise a more sustainable and reliable energy landscape for generations to come.

If you'd like a Powerwall or two, you can use my referral code: ts.la/patrick7819

Tipping Points of Tomorrow: The Future of AI, Clean Energy, and Biotech by 2050

The Future of Three Tipping Point Technologies: AI, Renewable Energy, and Biomedical Science

To predict the next 25 years for artificial intelligence (AI), renewable energy, and biomedical science we'll look at historical tipping points like electricity, automobiles, personal computers, and the internet. By 2050, AI and biomedical advances are poised to transform society as much, if not more, than their predecessors shaped the world we live in now. Let's explore their likely impacts on economic, social, and ethical dimensions.

Historical Context: Lessons from Past Tipping Points

Understanding historical technologies provides insights into how current tipping points might unfold:

• Electricity (Late 19th Century): Enabled industrialization and powered homes, requiring infrastructure like grids. Adoption took decades due to cost and accessibility.
• Automobiles (Early 20th Century): Mass production made cars affordable, reshaping urban planning. Infrastructure (roads, fuel stations) was key, but pollution emerged as a challenge.
• Personal Computers (1970s–1980s): Affordable PCs and user-friendly interfaces revolutionized work and laid the digital economy’s foundation. Software ecosystems drove adoption.
• Internet (1990s–2000s): The web and broadband transformed communication and commerce. Open standards accelerated growth, but privacy and inequality became issues.

Common Patterns: Tipping points require affordability, infrastructure, and accessibility. They create new industries, disrupt existing ones, and introduce societal challenges. Progress is non-linear, with breakthroughs followed by refinement.

1. Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Current State (2025)

AI is shifting from specialized applications (e.g., image recognition) to general-purpose systems. Large language models and reinforcement learning drive applications in healthcare, education, and logistics. Challenges include computational costs, ethical concerns, and limited access in developing regions.

Historical Parallel

AI mirrors personal computers’ shift from mainframes to desktops and the internet’s democratization of information, relying on data and connectivity.

Likely Developments by 2050

• Technological Advancements:
  • 2025–2035: AI becomes cheaper, adopted in healthcare, education, and logistics. Regulatory frameworks emerge.
  • 2035–2045: Artificial general intelligence (AGI) or near-AGI systems transform industries. Developing nations adopt AI.
  • 2045–2050: AI is ubiquitous, like electricity, with personalized assistants and global integration.
• Economic and Social Impacts:
  • Jobs: Automation displaces routine tasks but creates roles in AI development and ethics, requiring new skill development.
  • Accessibility: Cloud-based AI lowers costs, enabling adoption in developing nations by the 2040s.
  • Inequality: Wealth gaps may widen without equitable access policies.
• Challenges:
  • Ethics: Bias, privacy, and misuse (e.g., deepfakes) drive regulations by the 2030s.
  • Energy: AI’s computational needs require renewable integration.
  • Adaptation: Public trust varies, with resistance in some regions.

Key Enablers: Advances in computing, data, and connectivity will drive AI’s growth, similar to infrastructure for electricity and automobiles.

2. Renewable Energy

Current State (2025)

Renewables (solar, wind, hydro) account for ~30% of global electricity, with falling costs. Battery storage and smart grids address intermittency, but fossil fuels dominate. Policy support and corporate commitments accelerate adoption, though infrastructure and resource challenges persist.

Historical Parallel

Renewables resemble electricity’s need for grids and automobiles’ reliance on fuel stations, requiring storage and infrastructure to scale.

Likely Developments by 2050

• Technological Advancements:
  • 2025–2035: Renewables surpass coal and gas; storage costs fall; policies accelerate decarbonization.
  • 2035–2045: Renewables reach 70%+ of electricity; fusion pilots begin; decentralized systems scale in developing nations.
  • 2045–2050: Near-complete clean energy transition in developed nations; fusion commercializes; fossil fuel use drops below 20%.
• Economic and Social Impacts:
  • Transition: Renewables dominate by 2040, reducing fossil fuel reliance.
  • Jobs: Millions of jobs in manufacturing and maintenance, especially in developing nations.
  • Access: Off-grid solar reduces energy poverty by the 2040s.
• Challenges:
  • Infrastructure: Grid upgrades and land use face resistance.
  • Resources: Rare earth metal shortages require recycling or alternatives.
  • Geopolitics: Oil-dependent economies face disruption.

Key Enablers: Policy incentives, private investment, and storage innovations will drive the transition, like roads for automobiles.

3. Biomedical Science

Current State (2025)

Gene editing (e.g., CRISPR), mRNA vaccines, and AI-driven diagnostics are transforming healthcare. Wearables enable real-time monitoring, but ethical, regulatory, and access challenges remain.

Historical Parallel

Biomedical science mirrors the internet’s democratization of information and automobiles’ mobility revolution, requiring infrastructure like hospitals and data systems.

Likely Developments by 2050

• Technological Advancements:
  • 2025–2035: Gene therapies and AI diagnostics become mainstream in developed nations; regulations evolve.
  • 2035–2045: Regenerative medicine and neural interfaces scale; developing nations adopt basic biotech.
  • 2045–2050: Biomedical advancements are widely accessible, transforming health and longevity.
• Economic and Social Impacts:
  • Healthcare: Shift to preventive care reduces costs and improves outcomes.
  • Lifespan: Life expectancy exceeds 90 in developed nations by 2050.
  • Access: Affordable diagnostics reach developing nations by the 2040s.
• Challenges:
  • Ethics: Gene editing and cognitive enhancement raise equity and identity concerns.
  • Inequality: High costs may limit access initially, creating a biomedical divide.
  • Regulation: Global cooperation needed to balance innovation and safety.

Key Enablers: AI integration, data infrastructure, and global health policies will drive progress, like standards for electricity and the internet.

Synthesis and Broader Implications

• Convergence: AI will optimize renewables and biomedical advances, while renewables power AI and biomedical infrastructure.
• Societal Shifts: New industries will surpass traditional sectors, with longer lifespans, remote work, and sustainable cities by 2050.
• Global Dynamics: Developed nations lead, but equitable access requires cooperation. Developing nations may leapfrog to decentralized solutions.
• Risks: Ethical, environmental, and inequality challenges need coordinated governance.

Conclusion

By 2050, AI, renewable energy, and biomedical science will be as integral as electricity, transforming economies and societies. AI will become ubiquitous, renewables will dominate energy, and biomedical advances will redefine health. These tipping points will shape a future of unprecedented opportunity, provided we navigate their risks wisely.

Unpacking Tesla's Master Plan Part 4: A World of Sustainable Abundance

Tesla's Master Plan Part 4, titled "Sustainable Abundance," was released on September 1, 2025, via an X post from the official Tesla account. It builds on previous plans: Part 1 (2006) focused on EVs, Part 2 (2016) added autonomy and energy, and Part 3 (2023) outlined advancing Earth on the Kardashev Scale. Part 4 (2025) emphasizes artificial intelligence (AI) integration into the physical world (e.g., autonomous robots, cars, and agents). 

The plan envisions a technological renaissance where AI eliminates scarcity, fosters sustainable growth, and enhances humanity. It draws on Tesla's foundation in EVs, energy storage, and robotics, unifying hardware and software to create a safer, cleaner world.

Tesla has been making progress toward full autonomy (FSD, robotaxis, & Optimus). Autonomy and AI could reduce costs, eliminate labor shortages, and enable hyper-efficient economies, while driverless fleets reduce congestion and enable on-demand mobility.

Below is a breakdown of the major points, goals, steps, and products outlined or implied in Master Plan Part 4.

Major Points (Guiding Principles)

The plan is structured around philosophical and practical principles that reject zero-sum thinking, emphasizing technology's role in expanding opportunities. These are explicitly listed in the document:

• Growth is Infinite: Economic or resource expansion in one area doesn't require decline elsewhere. Shortages are solved via technology, innovation, and new ideas, drawing parallels to past revolutions like semiconductors and the internet that boosted the economy and created jobs. The word "infinite" may be overly ambitious; "sustainable growth" could be a more fitting description. 
• Innovation Removes Constraints: Technological advancements can overcome barriers that once seemed unassailable, fostering progress toward a better future. This is illustrated by the transition from handwritten manuscripts to the printing press, which broke the constraint of limited book production and democratized knowledge. Additionally, the invention of the internet removed geographical barriers to communication and information. Furthermore, the creation of renewable energy technologies, such as wind and solar power, has begun dismantling the reliance on finite fossil fuels, promoting a more sustainable energy landscape. These examples showcase how innovation can dissolve obstacles, paving the way for a world with fewer limitations..
• Technology Solves Tangible Problems: Focus on real-world impact, with each product built more efficiently and sustainably than the last (e.g., solar and battery systems for reliable clean energy, autonomy for safer and affordable transport).
• Autonomy Must Benefit All of Humanity: AI and autonomy should enhance the human condition, prioritizing safety, daily life improvements, and equitable access.
• Greater Access Drives Greater Growth: Affordable, scalable tech democratizes society, maximizes time (humanity's most limited resource), and enables meritocracy where skills lead to achievement.

The plan acknowledges the challenge's difficulty, predicting setbacks but affirming that they will be overcome to deliver abundance for generations.

Goals

The overarching goal is sustainable abundance, a world without scarcity, powered by AI in physical form, leading to shared economic growth and human prosperity. Specific sub-goals include:

• Transition from a pre-autonomy to post-autonomy era, reshaping mobility, energy, and labor.
• Eliminate resource and labor constraints through AI-driven automation.
• Accelerate global prosperity by making advanced tech affordable and accessible at scale.
• Foster a safer, cleaner, more enjoyable world by reducing pollution, accidents, and monotonous or dangerous work.
• Push beyond perceived limits to create unconstrained sustainability without compromise.

These goals extend Tesla's mission from energy transition to a broader societal transformation, where AI enables hyperabundance (e.g., near-zero costs for energy and labor).

Steps

The plan recaps Tesla's historical steps as a foundation and outlines a high-level path forward, emphasizing execution over timelines. It positions current efforts as the next chapter:

1. Build Foundational Technologies (Already Underway): Leverage nearly two decades of work in EVs, energy products, and humanoid robots to create a base for AI integration.
2. Hardware and Software at Scale: Combine manufacturing expertise with autonomous capabilities to develop efficient, sustainable systems.
3. Develop and Deploy AI-Powered Products and Services: Roll out innovations that solve problems like energy reliability, transport safety, and labor shortages.
4. Overcome Execution Challenges: Address skepticism and obstacles through tireless and exquisite execution, iterating on products to make them more affordable and impactful.
5. Scale Globally for Accessibility: Ensure meritocratic access, democratizing tech to raise quality of life and maximize human free time.
6. Monitor and Adapt for Human Benefit: Inform development by focusing on enhancements to safety, prosperity, and equity.

Drawing from the Autonomous North Star, practical steps include expanding Robotaxi services (initially supervised, evolving to unsupervised), integrating with infrastructure like tunnels, and advancing FSD for true autonomy.

Products Needed to Complete the Vision

Master Plan Part 4 highlights existing and emerging products as key enablers, with a focus on AI unification. It implies a product ecosystem that scales abundance:

Category	Key Products and Services	Role in Vision	Status and Needs
Autonomous Vehicles	Cybercab (two-seater robotaxi prototype) Robovan (20-seater autonomous van) Robotaxi service (using models like Model Y initially) Redwood (compact crossover for mass-market autonomy)	Improve transport affordability, safety, and availability; reduce urban pollution and congestion. Enable shared fleets for on-demand mobility.	Prototypes in development; needs regulatory approval, unsupervised FSD rollout, and fleet scaling (e.g., remote monitoring to full autonomy). Integration with networks like Tesla Network or Boring Co. tunnels for efficiency.
Humanoid Robots	Optimus (autonomous robot)	Transform labor by handling monotonous or dangerous tasks; free human time for fulfilling activities. Change availability and capability of work.	In production and testing; needs mass scaling, AI refinements for real-world tasks (e.g., serving, errands), and cost reductions to under $20,000 per unit for widespread adoption.
Energy Solutions	Solar panels Powerwall and Powerpack (battery storage) Gigafactory expansions	Increase clean electricity reliability and affordability; power AI systems sustainably. Remedy energy shortages via innovation.	Ongoing scaling; needs more Gigafactories (four or more planned) for battery cost drops (30% or more reductions) and renewable integration to support AI and hardware demands.
AI Hardware and Software	AI5 and 6 (next-gen hardware for FSD and Optimus) Full Self-Driving (FSD) software AI6-based Dojo supercomputer (for AI training)	Unify systems for autonomy; enable Level 5 self-driving and robot intelligence.	AI5 in development; transparent data sharing, and ethical AI frameworks to ensure safety and benefits.

These products build on Tesla's core lineup (e.g., Model 3 and Y, Cybertruck) but pivot to AI-centric goals. To complete the vision, Tesla would need:

• Massive manufacturing ramps (e.g., more Gigafactories for batteries and robots).
• Regulatory hurdles cleared for unsupervised autonomy.
• Partnerships (e.g., with governments for infrastructure, or companies like Panasonic, Samsung, and TSMC for components).
• Investment in R&D to hit cost targets (e.g., sub-$30,000 vehicles and robots) and efficiency gains.

Overall, Master Plan Part IV is more visionary and principle-driven than prior plans, with fewer concrete timelines but a clear call to action for AI-enabled abundance. It demonstrates Tesla's desire to be a leader in reshaping society based on autonomy's transformative potential.

Data Centers Are Stealing Your EV Savings! Oregon Fights Back

Data Centers Are Gobbling Up the Grid and Driving Up Electricity Rates for Oregonians

Have you noticed that your electricity bill is higher than it used to be? Even if you are using less, your bill may still be higher than it was a year ago. You might dismiss this as inflation since prices for nearly everything have been on the rise. However, historically, electricity prices have risen more slowly than inflation. There's another factor that's driving your bill higher. The new player straining the system is massive data centers that power AI and cryptocurrency.

Many of us like and use one or both of these technologies, but that doesn't mean that we want to pay for them every month on our electricity bill. Highly profitable corporations, such as Google, Microsoft, and Facebook, alongside venture capital-supported start-ups, are constructing data centers. These swollen-coffers entities have the resources to establish their own infrastructure, without placing the financial burden on other ratepayers.

Data centers are undermining the century-old utility model, resulting in skyrocketing residential rates. In Oregon, where renewable energy and EV adoption are booming, this issue is front and center. Let’s dive into how data centers have broken the traditional model, how this has resulted in essentially giving them corporate welfare at our expense, how this has increased your rates, and (most importantly) let's explore how a new Oregon bill aims to address these issues.

The Old Model

The traditional utility business model, born over 100 years ago, assumed electricity demand would grow proportionally across residential, commercial, and industrial users. Utilities spread infrastructure costs for building substations and transmission lines across all customers. Say a new factory is being built. It will need workers, so new homes will be built. The people who live in those homes will need stores, restaurants, and other amenities. The utility then installs new infrastructure to support all these homes and businesses, and the upgrade costs will be shared by all the utility's customers. This method worked when factories, homes, stores, and restaurants all scaled together. 

Enter data centers: these facilities guzzle power 24/7, often with the demand of an entire city. Data centers don't bring hundreds of jobs and homes, with supporting stores and restaurants that also share in the infrastructure growth. Data centers require a massive amount of infrastructure that solely benefits them. And they are exploiting this collective payment system to fund this infrastructure.

This mismatch turns into a subsidy for tech giants. Residential customers end up footing the bill for data center-specific expansions. For instance, Portland General Electric (PGE) spent $210 million on transmission upgrades in Washington County to serve data centers. Critics call it corporate welfare because data centers don't pay for the infrastructure and then only pay industrial rates for the electricity (around 8 cents per kWh), while households pay 19 to 20 cents per kWh, effectively further subsidizing the tech giants.

Oregon has 137 data centers and ranks 9th in the US (or 2nd per capita). The data centers here consume over 10% of our state’s electricity. Demand is expected to more than double by 2030. This will force utilities to buy more expensive power (from Western Energy Imbalance Market) and build out their generation and distribution capacity, exacerbating rate hikes on households unless something is done to restore balance.

The Fallout

Residential electricity rates in Oregon have surged about 45% since 2018 for customers of Oregon’s two major utilities. That’s from roughly 13 cents per kWh in 2018 to 20 cents per kWh today in 2025. Data centers are driving much of this increase. PGE’s industrial demand has spiked 95% since 2016, versus just 3.5% for residential. This added load, equivalent to 162,400 new households, has utilities scrambling, increasing reliance on fossil fuels and market buys, which inflate costs further. Oregon electricity rate increases are outpacing the national average. This means running your refrigerator, air conditioner, or charging your EV now costs more. 

To illustrate the trend, here’s a breakdown of average residential rate increases for PGE and Pacific Power customers:

Year	PGE Rate (cents/kWh)	Pacific Power Rate (cents/kWh)	Statewide Increase
2018	13.5	13.3	Baseline
2019	13.8	13.6	2%
2020	14.0	13.8	4%
2021	14.7	14.5	9%
2022	15.8	15.5	17%
2023	17.2	16.7	27%
2024	18.3	18.0	36%
2025	19.6	19.5	45%

These price hikes have real consequences: over 70,000 Oregon households faced disconnections in 2024 due to unpaid bills, according to the Oregon Citizens’ Utility Board (CUB). While factors like wildfire mitigation and renewables transition play a role, the lion’s share is data center growth.

The Solution: POWER Act

Oregon House Bill 3546 is the Protecting Oregonians With Energy Responsibility (POWER) Act. POWER aims to fix this issue. It reclassifies data centers and crypto operations using 20 MW or more as large energy use facilities, separating them from general industrial users. It mandates data centers to 10-year power contracts with fees for over- or under-usage, and (most importantly) direct payment for infrastructure costs. No more shifting infrastructure costs to residential customers. The act was signed into law by Governor Tina Kotek in June 2025. The Public Utility Commission rulemaking for the act is currently underway. The act takes effect in October 2025 and requires biennial load reports starting September 2026.

The Impact

This act will help stabilize residential rates and prevent another 50% price spike by 2030. The price that data centers pay will be determined by the PUC and will likely be more than the 8 cents per kWh price they currently enjoy. Critics worry the act could slow tech jobs, but supporters argue it protects affordability.

Microgrids To The Rescue

Oregon House Bills 2065 and 2066 are collectively called the "Microgrid Empowerment Act." These bills were also signed into law by Governor Tina Kotek this year. They establish a comprehensive regulatory framework that permits the development and operation of microgrids by diverse entities, including communities, tribes, municipalities, and private developers. House Bill 2065 focuses on enabling community-owned microgrids, empowering local groups to generate and manage their own electricity, often with an emphasis on renewable sources like solar and wind. House Bill 2066 complements this by allowing private entities, including businesses and third-party developers, to build and operate microgrids, fostering innovation in decentralized energy systems. Together, these laws aim to enhance grid resilience, reduce reliance on centralized power during outages, and promote the integration of clean energy, aligning with Oregon’s climate goals.

Data centers could leverage private microgrids under House Bill 2066 to both integrate renewables and avoid significant grid upgrade costs. By establishing private microgrids, data centers could install on-site solar, wind turbines, and/or battery storage systems. Thereby, generating a substantial portion of their power directly on-site. This would reduce their dependence and infrastructure demands on the utility grid, allowing them to bypass the need for expensive infrastructure improvements such as new power lines or substations, which can cost millions and are mandated under the POWER Act’s 10-year contract requirements.

Moreover, private microgrids could enable data centers to negotiate power purchase agreements with renewable energy providers, ensuring a steady supply of green energy tailored to their demand profiles. This setup could lower their effective energy costs. This would avoid transmission fees and grid maintenance charges. Additionally, by meeting Oregon’s renewable portfolio standards through on-site generation, data centers could gain regulatory incentives or carbon credits, further offsetting costs. This strategic use of microgrids could shift the financial burden away from ratepayers, aligning with the POWER Act’s intent while allowing tech giants to maintain operational efficiency and sustainability, potentially setting a precedent for other states facing similar energy challenges.

Wrap Up

In conclusion, as we electrify our transportation and homes, we can’t let data centers derail the grid. Oregon’s POWER Act is a smart step toward equity, ensuring residential customers aren’t subsidizing big tech’s power binge. By holding these giants accountable, we’re paving the way for a resilient, renewable-powered future where clean driving stays affordable. 

The Microgrid Empowerment Act gives new tools to data centers to deal with their power requirements without dependency on the utilities.

If you’re in Oregon, keep an eye on your utility bills; these could mean real savings the next time you plug in.

Solar Power in 2025: Comparing Grid-Tied and Off-Grid Systems

Grid-Connected vs. Off-Grid Solar: Which Power is Greener & Cheaper in 2025?

If you're considering solar for your home, one big question is whether to stay tied to the grid or go fully independent. Today, we'll look at how these choices impact everything from your electric bill to the planet's health. We'll compare a net-zero grid-connected system (with true net-metering) against a robust off-grid setup. Both can include batteries, but the off-grid setup demands more capacity for those cloudy winter days and a beefier PV array to keep the lights on year-round. We'll dive into CO2 reductions, upfront costs, and ongoing expenses, all updated for current realities. Spoiler: One option often edges out the other for most folks, but let's break it down.

Understanding the Systems

A grid-connected net-zero system is designed to produce as much energy annually as your home consumes, typically with an 8-12 kW PV array. Annually is a keyword here. You may supply the grid with energy in the summer, then use those banked credits during the winter. Any day's excess power charges your battery, then flows back to the grid via net-metering, earning you credits. The utility uses bidirectional meters to track imports and exports. Add in time-of-use (TOU) rates, where you shift heavy usage to off-peak hours (like charging your EV overnight), and virtual power plant (VPP) participation, where your battery helps stabilize the grid during peaks for extra incentive payments. This means you can use the grid as your backup, and the grid can use your battery when it's needed most; win-win.

On the flip side, off-grid solar means total self-reliance. You'll need a larger 15-20 kW array to handle low-production seasons and 2-3 times the battery storage for multi-day autonomy. No grid means no selling excess energy, so summer surpluses might go to waste. But hey, if you're in a remote spot or crave independence, this is empowering - just pricier and more complex.

Which Reduces CO2 More?

When it comes to slashing carbon emissions, grid-connected systems pack a bigger punch. A net-zero setup not only powers your home with clean solar but also exports surplus solar to displace fossil fuels elsewhere on the grid. Studies show this can reduce 20-50% more CO2 than off-grid, as VPP events avoid firing up gas peaker plants (emitting around 400-500g CO2 per kWh). For a typical US home, that's 5-10 tons of CO2 avoided yearly, including grid-wide benefits.

Off-grid is zero-emission on-site. You know that all the energy you use will be solar, which is great. However, this doesn't help your neighbors reduce their use of gas peaker plants. Plus, the extra manufacturing for oversized panels and batteries adds manufacturing and transport emissions (about 30-50g CO2 per kWh over 25 years). In hydro-and-wind-heavy mix regions, grid-connected (with VPPs and TOU optimizing) amplifies decarbonization since most of the remaining CO2 production is related to peaker plant operations.

Cost Breakdown: Buying and Operating

Upfront, grid-connected wins hands-down. A 12 kW system with one or two Powerwalls averages $25,000-$40,000 after the 30% federal tax credit (ending soon). Batteries alone run $9,000-$19,000 installed. VPP programs sweeten the deal with rebates ranging from $250 to $5,000 annual payouts.

Off-grid? Brace for $45,000-$65,000, thanks to the beefed-up array and additional batteries. No grid means no net-metering credits, so you're paying a premium for autonomy, but you don't have a monthly utility bill, so you're not at the whims of their price increases.

Operationally, grid-connected shines brighter. With TOU, you could slash bills 50% by loading off-peak, and net-metering often leads to near-zero or credit-positive statements. VPP typically pays $100-$1,000 yearly. Maintenance? $100-$300 a year, with batteries lasting 10-15 years.

Off-grid operating costs hit $500-$2,000 annually, mostly from faster battery wear (replacements every 5-10 years at $10,000+). No incentives, higher upkeep - it's rugged but expensive.

Aspect	Grid-Connected (Net-Zero)	Off-Grid
CO2 Reduction	Better (20-50% more via grid displacement, VPP)	Lower (on-site only, higher construction emissions)
Initial Cost (After Incentives)	$25,000-$40,000	$45,000-$65,000
Annual Operating Cost	$0-$700 (depending on grid-connect fees and VPP credits)	$500-$2,000+
Best For	Urban homes, savings-focused	Remote spots, independence

Final Thoughts

In 2025, with rising utility rates (PGE's up 5.5%) and tech like VPPs maturing, grid-connected solar with batteries is the smart play for most US homeowners. It cuts more CO2 by greening the grid, costs less upfront, and operates cheaper thanks to net-metering, TOU, and VPP incentives. Off-grid has its niche for off-the-beaten-path living, but for everyday efficiency and environmental impact, staying connected wins. If you're pairing this with an EV, the synergies are huge (lower bills, cleaner drives, and a brighter future). Ready to plug in? Check your local utility and crunch the numbers; the sun's waiting.

Referrals

If you're within 50 miles of SunPath's office in Beaverton, Oregon, I recommend getting a quote from them for your solar project. Also (before or after you have the quote), tell them you were referred by Patrick from CarsWithCords.net, you'll get $500 off, and I'll receive a referral bonus.

If you're considering Tesla for your solar project, you can use my referral code (https://ts.la/patrick7819) for $500 off, and I'll receive referral points for Tesla merch.

Ω

Electrify Everything, Recycle Endlessly For a Future Free from Fossil Fuels

Do we have enough minerals on Earth to move away from fossil fuels?

The transition to a fully electrified energy system requires mineral resources for batteries, electric motors, transmission lines, solar panels, wind turbines, etc. In this post, we'll examine the volume of materials needed and compare this to what we already have on hand.  

When the lifespan of these devices is complete, these minerals can be recycled to create a sustainable, closed-loop system. This is unlike fossil fuel use, which demands a continuous fuel supply; with no end to mining and drilling until the planet is desiccated. Electrification leverages finite mineral reserves that can be reused extensively, offering flexibility and resilience. This is "Electrify Everything, Recycle Endlessly" vision of a sustainable energy future. So let's look at what's required and see if it's possible to get there. 

Minerals in Electrified Energy Systems

Batteries

Batteries are central to electrification, powering electric vehicles (EVs) and storing renewable energy. Lithium-ion batteries (depending on the type) rely on lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, and graphite. Emerging chemistries, such as lithium iron phosphate (LFP), reduce dependence on cobalt and nickel, using more abundant materials like iron and phosphorus. 

Electric Motors

There are seven broad categories of motors (DC, AC Synchronous, AC Induction, Switched Reluctance Motor, Stepper, Universal, Specialty). These broad categories can be further subdivided into 12 to 15 species (depending on your criteria). Not all motor types are suited for any given use case, but there's a lot of overlap in where and how they can be utilized and the materials that comprise them.

Electric motors, particularly those in EVs and wind turbines, often use neodymium and dysprosium for powerful magnets, though alternatives like ferrite magnets are being explored to reduce reliance on scarce materials. Electric motors can be made completely without rare earth materials and even without magnets. For example, the Switched Reluctance Motor (SRM) uses coils of a ferromagnetic material like iron to create a magnetic field in the stator. The rotor coils align with the magnetic field to minimize reluctance, producing motion. Since the rotor is simply iron (or similar materials) and the stator uses copper windings, no permanent magnets or rare earth materials are required. 

Another example is the induction motor, which can be designed without permanent magnets. In a squirrel-cage induction motor, the rotor consists of conductive bars (often aluminum or copper) shorted together, and the rotating magnetic field from the stator induces currents in the rotor, creating torque. While some induction motors may use magnetic materials for efficiency, the basic design doesn't rely on rare earths or permanent magnets.

Both types are widely used in industrial applications and are valued for their simplicity, robustness, and lower reliance on costly or scarce materials. However, they may have trade-offs like lower power density or efficiency compared to permanent magnet motors in some applications.  

Transmission Lines

Transmission lines are critical for delivering energy. They primarily use aluminum for conductors, such as Aluminum Conductor Steel Reinforced (ACSR), All-Aluminum Alloy Conductor (AAAC), or Aluminum Conductor Alloy Reinforced (ACAR), due to its conductivity and low weight. ACSR often has a steel core for strength. Copper is rarely used due to cost. However, if aluminum is scarce or the price increases significantly, copper or Aluminum Conductor Composite Core (ACCC) with a carbon fiber core can substitute.  

Solar Panels

Solar panels use highly abundant silicon for photovoltaic cells. Silver, tellurium, and indium are used for specific designs like thin-film panels. 

Wind Turbines

We've already covered the electric motor portion, so now we'll look at the rest of the turbine. Wind turbines primarily use steel for structural components. These materials are finite but highly recyclable.

Round & Round We Go
Good Batteries Become Great Batteries

Recycling is a cornerstone of the electrified energy system. As JB Straubel, founder of Redwood Materials, noted, over 99% of battery metals such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel can be reused without degradation. Recycled materials often outperform newly mined materials since the repeated refining cycles enhance their purity. 

This high recyclability contrasts sharply with fossil fuels, where coal, oil, and methane that are burned, dumped into the atmosphere, and lost forever. Recycling programs for batteries, solar panels, and wind turbine components are expanding, reducing the need for virgin materials and mitigating environmental impacts from mining.

Additionally, by the time a battery is recycled for materials, the underlying technology has usually advanced, and new batteries often need less material for the same storage value. For example, the material from 100 five-year-old cells could make 120 new cells today.

Avoid the Fossil Fuel Lock-In

Fossil fuels lock societies into rigid systems. A petrol engine requires petrol, and a diesel engine demands diesel, with little-to-no flexibility to adapt to price surges or supply disruptions. Coal plants are similarly tethered to coal supplies. Continuous mining and drilling are necessary to sustain these systems, leading to environmental degradation and geopolitical dependencies. For example, oil extraction involves ongoing drilling, often in ecologically sensitive areas, while coal mining scars landscapes and emits significant greenhouse gases even before the coal itself is burned.

In contrast, electrified systems offer flexibility. Battery chemistries are diverse, ranging from lithium-ion to sodium-ion, solid-state, or flow batteries. If cobalt prices surge, manufacturers can pivot to LFP or other low-cobalt options. Similarly, electric motors can be made in many ways, with many different materials. 

And even renewable energy generation itself is versatile. If solar panel costs rise due to silicon or silver shortages, wind, hydroelectric, or geothermal energy can fill the gap. Market dynamics drive innovation, ensuring that price spikes in one material or technology spur alternatives, fostering a resilient energy ecosystem, rather than a system tethered to a single volatile fuel source.

Challenges and Opportunities

The transition to a fully electrified society requires significant mineral production increases for materials like neodymium, dysprosium, tellurium, and solar-grade polysilicon, as highlighted in a 2023 Joule* study. While geological reserves are sufficient, scaling mining sustainably is critical to avoid environmental damage. Recycling mitigates this by reducing demand for primary sources. For instance, recycled copper from transmission lines and battery components can meet a significant portion of future needs, especially as EV adoption grows and end-of-life batteries become available.

The environmental footprint of mineral extraction, though notable, is a small fraction of fossil fuel emissions. The Joule study estimates that material-related emissions for a 1.5°C scenario (4-29 Gt CO2eq) consume only 1-9% of the carbon budget, far less than the ongoing emissions from burning fossil fuels. Innovations in low-carbon mining and processing, coupled with recycling, further shrink this footprint, aligning with the goal of a "Future Free from Fossil Fuels."

Mineral Requirements and Alternatives

The table below summarizes key elements for electrification, estimated needs for a 100% electrified society by 2050, current mined quantities, global reserves, and alternatives, based on studies like the one from Joule and industry insights.

Element	Estimated Need (Mt, 2020-2050)	Already Mined/In Use (Mt)	Estimated Global Reserves (Mt)	Alternatives
Lithium	0.5-1.5	0.1	22	Sodium, magnesium-based batteries
Cobalt	0.3-0.8	0.14	7.6	LFP batteries, nickel-heavy chemistries
Nickel	3.8	2.7	95	LFP, iron-based batteries
Copper	81.8	26	880	Aluminum, recycled copper
Aluminum	241	68	30,000 (30Gt)	Recycled aluminum, steel
Neodymium	0.9 - 1.0	0.02	12.8	Ferrite magnets, other rare earths
Dysprosium	0.08 - 0.09	0.002	1.1	Ferrite magnets, copper induction magnet
Tellurium	0.042	0.0006	0.031	Silicon-based PV, CIGS thin-film
Silver	0.068	0.025	0.64	Aluminum, copper in PV
Silicon (Polysilicon)	22.5	0.75	N/A (abundant)	Thin-film technologies
Steel (Iron and Carbon)	1,960	1,870	N/A (abundant)	Recycled steel, aluminum

Notes: Needs are cumulative for 2020-2050 in 1.5°C scenarios (Joule, 2023). "Already Mined/In Use" reflects annual production as a proxy for in-use stock. Reserves are from USGS and other sources. Alternatives include substitutes and recycling.

Conclusion

The mantra "Electrify Everything, Recycle Endlessly" encapsulates the path to a sustainable energy future. Minerals for batteries, motors, transmission lines, and renewables are finite but recyclable (closed-loop), offering a stark contrast to the perpetual extraction demanded by fossil fuels (open-loop). The flexibility of battery chemistries and renewable energy sources ensures resilience against supply constraints, unlike the rigid lock-in of fossil fuel systems. By prioritizing recycling and innovation, we can secure the minerals needed for a "Future Free from Fossil Fuels," minimizing environmental impacts and ensuring a sustainable, electrified world.

* https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(23)00001-6